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Updated · Week 10 · 50,000 seasons played out

Minnesota Vikings playoff chances

The Vikings make the playoffs in 95 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 95% chance as of week 10.

MIN Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings make the playoffs in 95 of every 100 seasons we play out. At 7-2 they hold the NFC 5th seed today.

  • 7-2Record
  • 5thin the NFC today
  • 43in 100 win the NFC North
  • +13since last week

Next game vs the 49ers (week 11)

PLAYOFFS102030405040302010last week95in 100

The ball shows how far the Vikings are from the playoffs. The end zone is 100 in 100.

100 seasons, one dot each

  • 43 win the NFC North
  • 52 get in as a wild card
  • 5 miss the playoffs

Chance after each weekUp 34 since week 1

100500Wk 1Wk 4Wk 7Now95

What the Vikings need to make the playoffs

Magic number66 more wins put the Vikings in the playoffs, whatever any other team does.
NFC North magic number8If they win all 8 games they have left, the Vikings win the NFC North whatever any other team does.
Elimination numberNot yetThe Vikings cannot be knocked out by their own results yet. Even if they lose all 8 games they have left, there is still a way in.

These three are proved, not played out: we check every way the season can still finish. How the proof works

If they win every game left, they are in. Each row is a final record and how often it was enough.

  1. 11-6 or better99+ in 100Most likely finish. Happens 83 times in 100
  2. 10-790 in 100Happens 11 times in 100
  3. 9-846 in 100Happens 5 times in 100
  4. 8-94 in 100Happens 1 time in 100

Vikings playoff scenarios for week 10

Next game, week 11 vs 49ers Sun, Nov 22, 8:20 PM ET

If they win99
Today95
If they lose92

It matters. Winning instead of losing is worth 7 in 100. The Vikings win this game 48 times in 100.

The Vikings do not play in week 10.

Vikings clinching scenarios for week 10

No. The Vikings cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Vikings be eliminated in week 10?

No. The Vikings cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Every answer here is proved from the results still possible, with the league's tiebreakers through conference record. Clinching scenarios for every team

Who Vikings fans should root for in week 10

No other game this week moves the Vikings by more than 1 in 100.

Try your own Vikings playoff scenarios

Tap a result. We replay the season 6,000 times on your device and move the ball.

Vikings games left

  1. Wk 11vs 49ersSun, Nov 22 · wins 48 in 100
  2. Wk 12vs FalconsSun, Nov 29 · wins 73 in 100
  3. Wk 13vs PanthersSun, Dec 6 · wins 70 in 100
  4. Wk 14at PatriotsThu, Dec 10 · wins 58 in 100
  5. Wk 15vs LionsSun, Dec 20 · wins 57 in 100
  6. Wk 16vs CommandersSun, Dec 27 · wins 74 in 100
  7. Wk 17at JetsSun, Jan 3 · wins 68 in 100
  8. Wk 18vs BearsSun, Jan 10 · wins 57 in 100

Other games in week 10

  1. Rams at CardinalsSun, Nov 15
  2. Seahawks at RaidersSun, Nov 15
  3. 49ers at CowboysSun, Nov 15
  4. Steelers at BengalsSun, Nov 15
  5. Chargers at RavensMon, Nov 16

Vikings playoff picture today

The Vikings are 7-2 and hold the NFC 5th seed. They are 2 games ahead of the Seahawks, the first team outside the playoff places.

They are 2nd in the NFC North, level with the Lions but behind on a tiebreaker.

If the playoffs started today, the Vikings would visit the Panthers in the wild card round.

Last 5:WWLLWThey won their last game.

Our strength rating puts them 6th of 32, 4.2 points better than an average team. The Vikings made the playoffs in 2 of the last 5 seasons (2022, 2024).

See every seed in the NFC playoff picture and today's playoff bracket.

NFC North standings

TeamRecordIn divisionPlayoffsWin division
DET Lions7-22-08934
MIN Vikings7-23-19543
CHI Bears7-20-28521
GB Packers6-41-3452

Vikings playoff odds by seed

How often each seed came up, out of 100 seasons.

  1. 1st seed bye week26
  2. 2nd seed16
  3. 3rd seed1
  4. 4th seed last home game<1
  5. 5th seed30
  6. 6th seed15
  7. 7th seed8
  8. Miss the playoffs5

How far the Vikings can go

The Vikings playoff odds for each round, out of 100. We play the bracket in every season, up to the Super Bowl.

  1. Make the playoffs95in 100
  2. Reach the divisional round63in 100
  3. Reach the conference title game34in 100
  4. Reach the Super Bowl18in 100
  5. Win the Super Bowl9in 100

Vikings remaining schedule

The Vikings have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 38-35-1, the 11th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

WeekDateOpponentTheir recordChance to win
11Sun, Nov 22vs 49ers neutral site7-1 48 in 100
12Sun, Nov 29vs Falcons3-7 73 in 100
13Sun, Dec 6vs Panthers4-5 70 in 100
14Thu, Dec 10at Patriots5-5 58 in 100
15Sun, Dec 20vs Lions7-2 57 in 100
16Sun, Dec 27vs Commanders3-5-1 74 in 100
17Sun, Jan 3at Jets2-8 68 in 100
18Sun, Jan 10vs Bears7-2 57 in 100

Every game this week, with kickoff times in your own time zone, is on the NFL games this week page. The Vikings bye is in week 6. Every team's week off is in our guide to NFL bye weeks 2026.

Vikings results and how their playoff chances moved

Each row shows the playoff chance once that week was complete.

WeekDateOpponentResultPlayoff chance after
1Sun, Sep 13vs PackersWon 39 to 2261 in 100
2Sun, Sep 20at BearsWon 9 to 375 in 100 +14
3Sun, Sep 27at BuccaneersWon 23 to 1685 in 100 +10
4Sun, Oct 4vs DolphinsWon 15 to 1085 in 100
5Sun, Oct 11at SaintsWon 23 to 1391 in 100 +6
7Sun, Oct 25vs ColtsWon 16 to 1095 in 100 +2
8Sun, Nov 1at LionsLost 15 to 1992 in 100 -3
9Mon, Nov 9vs BillsLost 6 to 2382 in 100 -10
10Sun, Nov 15at PackersWon 30 to 10week not finished

Tiebreakers in play for the Vikings

These ties are being broken in today's standings.

  • BehindDET The Lions are ahead of CHI the Bears and MIN the Vikings on head to head.
  • AheadMIN The Vikings are ahead of CHI the Bears on head to head.

The steps follow the league's tiebreaking procedures. See every step or read our guide to NFL tiebreakers.

How we got these numbers

Three steps, run again after every game window.

  1. Rate every teamWe rate every team from the points in its games so far.
  2. Play out the seasonEvery game left is played out 50,000 times.
  3. Seed every seasonEach of those seasons is seeded with the real NFL tiebreakers.

The result

MIN 95 in 100

The Vikings made the playoffs in 95 of every 100 seasons.

Clinched and eliminated are proved, not played out. They and the magic numbers are worked out another way. They are proved from every result still possible, so they are certain, not likely. How the proof works

✓Checked Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET. Our seeding matches the official standings for 32 of 32 teams. How it works

Vikings playoff questions

What are the Vikings playoff chances right now?

The Vikings make the playoffs in 95 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 95% chance. At 7-2 they hold the NFC 5th seed today. That is up 13 from last week. Updated Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET.

Can the Vikings still make the playoffs?

Yes. The Vikings make the playoffs 95 times in 100 in our runs. They are 2 games ahead of the Seahawks, the first team outside the playoff places.

What do the Vikings need to make the playoffs?

In our runs a final record of 10-7 got in 90 times in 100, 9-8 got in 46 times in 100 and 8-9 got in 4 times in 100. If they win every game left, they are in.

Are the Vikings eliminated from the playoffs?

No. The Vikings are not eliminated. The Vikings cannot be knocked out by their own results yet. Even if they lose all 8 games they have left, there is still a way in. They are 2 games ahead of the Seahawks, the first team outside the playoff places.

What is the Vikings magic number?

The Vikings magic number is 6. 6 more wins put the Vikings in the playoffs, whatever any other team does. If they win all 8 games they have left, the Vikings win the NFC North whatever any other team does.

What are the Vikings playoff scenarios for week 10?

The Vikings do not play in week 10. Their next game is vs the 49ers on Sun, Nov 22.

Can the Vikings clinch a playoff spot this week?

No. The Vikings cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Vikings be eliminated this week?

No. The Vikings cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Who should Vikings fans root for this week?

No other game in week 10 moves the Vikings by more than 1 in 100.

Who do the Vikings play next?

Next they play vs the 49ers on Sun, Nov 22. A win lifts the chance to 99 in 100. A loss drops it to 92.

Can the Vikings still win the NFC North?

The Vikings win the NFC North in 43 of 100. They are 2nd in the NFC North, level with the Lions but behind on a tiebreaker.

What are the Vikings Super Bowl chances?

The Vikings reach the Super Bowl in 18 of every 100 seasons we play out and win it in 9.

How hard is the Vikings remaining schedule?

The Vikings have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 38-35-1, the 11th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

More playoff chances