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Updated · Week 10 · 50,000 seasons played out

Las Vegas Raiders playoff chances

The Raiders make the playoffs in 20 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 20% chance as of week 10.

LV Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders make the playoffs in 20 of every 100 seasons we play out. At 4-5 they sit 9th in the AFC, 2 spots outside the playoff places.

  • 4-5Record
  • 9thin the AFC today
  • 2in 100 win the AFC West
  • +2since last week

Next game vs the Seahawks

PLAYOFFS102030405040302010last week20in 100

The ball shows how far the Raiders are from the playoffs. The end zone is 100 in 100.

100 seasons, one dot each

  • 2 win the AFC West
  • 18 get in as a wild card
  • 80 miss the playoffs

Chance after each weekDown 41 since week 1

100500Wk 1Wk 4Wk 7Now20

What the Raiders need to make the playoffs

Magic numberTiebreakWinning all 8 games they have left might be enough for the Raiders, but only if a tiebreaker goes their way. On wins alone they need help.
AFC West magic numberNeeds helpThe Raiders cannot win the AFC West on their own. Even if they win all 8 games they have left, they need another team to slip.
Elimination number77 more losses knock the Raiders out, whatever else happens.

These three are proved, not played out: we check every way the season can still finish. How the proof works

If they win every game left, they are in. Each row is a final record and how often it was enough.

  1. 11-6 or better99+ in 100Happens 4 times in 100
  2. 10-785 in 100Happens 10 times in 100
  3. 9-836 in 100Happens 19 times in 100
  4. 8-94 in 100Most likely finish. Happens 24 times in 100
  5. 7-10 or worse<1 in 100Happens 43 times in 100

Raiders playoff scenarios for week 10

This week vs Seahawks Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 PM ET

If they win30
Today20
If they lose12

A big game. Winning instead of losing is worth 18 in 100. The Raiders win this game 43 times in 100.

Best and worst case this week

Best week31Raiders beat Seahawks
Worst week12Seahawks beat Raiders

Raiders clinching scenarios for week 10

No. The Raiders cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Raiders be eliminated in week 10?

No. The Raiders cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Every answer here is proved from the results still possible, with the league's tiebreakers through conference record. Clinching scenarios for every team

Who Raiders fans should root for in week 10

No other game this week moves the Raiders by more than 1 in 100.

Try your own Raiders playoff scenarios

Tap a result. We replay the season 6,000 times on your device and move the ball.

Raiders games left

  1. Wk 10vs SeahawksSun, Nov 15 · wins 43 in 100
  2. Wk 11at BroncosSun, Nov 22 · wins 34 in 100
  3. Wk 12at BrownsSun, Nov 29 · wins 46 in 100
  4. Wk 14vs ChargersSun, Dec 13 · wins 69 in 100
  5. Wk 15vs BroncosSun, Dec 20 · wins 44 in 100
  6. Wk 16vs TitansSun, Dec 27 · wins 67 in 100
  7. Wk 17at CardinalsSun, Jan 3 · wins 53 in 100
  8. Wk 18at ChiefsSun, Jan 10 · wins 27 in 100

Other games in week 10

  1. Rams at CardinalsSun, Nov 15
  2. 49ers at CowboysSun, Nov 15
  3. Steelers at BengalsSun, Nov 15
  4. Chargers at RavensMon, Nov 16

Raiders playoff picture today

The Raiders are 4-5 and sit 9th in the AFC. They are 1.5 games behind the Browns, who hold the last playoff place.

They are 3rd in the AFC West, 3 games behind the Chiefs.

If the playoffs started today, the Raiders would miss out.

Last 5:LLLWLThey lost their last game.

Our strength rating puts them 20th of 32, 1.8 points worse than an average team. The Raiders made the playoffs in 1 of the last 5 seasons (2021).

See every seed in the AFC playoff picture and today's playoff bracket.

AFC West standings

TeamRecordIn divisionPlayoffsWin division
KC Chiefs7-23-19657
DEN Broncos7-22-19241
LV Raiders4-51-1202
LAC Chargers0-80-3<1<1

Raiders playoff odds by seed

How often each seed came up, out of 100 seasons.

  1. 1st seed bye week<1
  2. 2nd seed<1
  3. 3rd seed<1
  4. 4th seed last home game2
  5. 5th seed2
  6. 6th seed6
  7. 7th seed10
  8. Miss the playoffs80

How far the Raiders can go

The Raiders playoff odds for each round, out of 100. We play the bracket in every season, up to the Super Bowl.

  1. Make the playoffs20in 100
  2. Reach the divisional round7in 100
  3. Reach the conference title game2in 100
  4. Reach the Super Bowl1in 100
  5. Win the Super Bowl<1in 100

Raiders remaining schedule

The Raiders have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 36-36, the 17th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

WeekDateOpponentTheir recordChance to win
10Sun, Nov 15vs Seahawks5-4 43 in 100
11Sun, Nov 22at Broncos7-2 34 in 100
12Sun, Nov 29at Browns6-4 46 in 100
14Sun, Dec 13vs Chargers0-8 69 in 100
15Sun, Dec 20vs Broncos7-2 44 in 100
16Sun, Dec 27vs Titans1-8 67 in 100
17Sun, Jan 3at Cardinals3-6 53 in 100
18Sun, Jan 10at Chiefs7-2 27 in 100

Every game this week, with kickoff times in your own time zone, is on the NFL games this week page. The Raiders bye is in week 13. Every team's week off is in our guide to NFL bye weeks 2026.

Raiders results and how their playoff chances moved

Each row shows the playoff chance once that week was complete.

WeekDateOpponentResultPlayoff chance after
1Sun, Sep 13vs DolphinsWon 27 to 1361 in 100
2Sun, Sep 20at ChargersWon 26 to 1469 in 100 +8
3Sun, Sep 27at SaintsWon 35 to 2779 in 100 +10
4Sun, Oct 4vs ChiefsLost 27 to 3074 in 100 -5
5Sun, Oct 11at PatriotsLost 17 to 4549 in 100 -25
6Sun, Oct 18vs BillsLost 30 to 3336 in 100 -13
7Sun, Oct 25vs RamsLost 21 to 3520 in 100 -16
8Sun, Nov 1at JetsWon 38 to 3330 in 100 +10
9Sun, Nov 8at 49ersLost 17 to 3818 in 100 -12

If the Raiders miss the playoffs: draft position

  • 80in 100 miss the playoffs
  • No. 12average first round pick
  • 4in 100 get a top 5 pick
  • <1in 100 get the first pick

If the Raiders miss the playoffs, their own first round pick lands at about No. 12 on average. They end up with a top 5 pick in 4 of 100 seasons.

Picks 1 to 18 go to the teams that miss the playoffs, worst record first. Trades are not included.

Tiebreakers in play for the Raiders

These ties are being broken in today's standings.

  • AheadLV The Raiders are ahead of BAL the Ravens on conference record.

The steps follow the league's tiebreaking procedures. See every step or read our guide to NFL tiebreakers.

How we got these numbers

Three steps, run again after every game window.

  1. Rate every teamWe rate every team from the points in its games so far.
  2. Play out the seasonEvery game left is played out 50,000 times.
  3. Seed every seasonEach of those seasons is seeded with the real NFL tiebreakers.

The result

LV 20 in 100

The Raiders made the playoffs in 20 of every 100 seasons.

Clinched and eliminated are proved, not played out. They and the magic numbers are worked out another way. They are proved from every result still possible, so they are certain, not likely. How the proof works

✓Checked Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET. Our seeding matches the official standings for 32 of 32 teams. How it works

Raiders playoff questions

What are the Raiders playoff chances right now?

The Raiders make the playoffs in 20 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 20% chance. At 4-5 they sit 9th in the AFC, 2 spots outside the playoff places. That is up 2 from last week. Updated Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET.

Can the Raiders still make the playoffs?

Yes, but they need things to go their way. The Raiders make the playoffs 20 times in 100 in our runs. They are 1.5 games behind the Browns, who hold the last playoff place. If they win every game left, they are in.

What do the Raiders need to make the playoffs?

In our runs a final record of 10-7 got in 85 times in 100, 9-8 got in 36 times in 100 and 8-9 got in 4 times in 100. If they win every game left, they are in.

Are the Raiders eliminated from the playoffs?

No. The Raiders are not eliminated. 7 more losses knock the Raiders out, whatever else happens. They are 1.5 games behind the Browns, who hold the last playoff place.

What is the Raiders magic number?

The Raiders do not have a magic number yet. Winning all 8 games they have left might be enough for the Raiders, but only if a tiebreaker goes their way. On wins alone they need help. The Raiders cannot win the AFC West on their own. Even if they win all 8 games they have left, they need another team to slip.

What are the Raiders playoff scenarios for week 10?

The Raiders play vs the Seahawks on Sun, Nov 15. A win lifts their chance to 30 in 100 and a loss drops it to 12. With the other key results added, the best case this week is 31 in 100 and the worst case is 12.

Can the Raiders clinch a playoff spot this week?

No. The Raiders cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Raiders be eliminated this week?

No. The Raiders cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Who should Raiders fans root for this week?

No other game in week 10 moves the Raiders by more than 1 in 100.

Who do the Raiders play next?

Next they play vs the Seahawks on Sun, Nov 15. A win lifts the chance to 30 in 100. A loss drops it to 12.

Can the Raiders still win the AFC West?

The Raiders win the AFC West in 2 of 100. They are 3rd in the AFC West, 3 games behind the Chiefs.

What are the Raiders Super Bowl chances?

The Raiders reach the Super Bowl in 1 of every 100 seasons we play out and win it in fewer than 1.

How hard is the Raiders remaining schedule?

The Raiders have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 36-36, the 17th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

More playoff chances