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Updated · Week 10 · 50,000 seasons played out

Chicago Bears playoff chances

The Bears make the playoffs in 85 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is an 85% chance as of week 10.

CHI Chicago Bears

The Bears make the playoffs in 85 of every 100 seasons we play out. At 7-2 they hold the NFC 6th seed today.

  • 7-2Record
  • 6thin the NFC today
  • 21in 100 win the NFC North
  • -1since last week

Next game vs the Saints (week 11, off this week)

PLAYOFFS10203040504030201085in 100

The ball shows how far the Bears are from the playoffs. The end zone is 100 in 100.

100 seasons, one dot each

  • 21 win the NFC North
  • 64 get in as a wild card
  • 15 miss the playoffs

Chance after each weekUp 18 since week 1

100500Wk 1Wk 4Wk 7Now85

What the Bears need to make the playoffs

Magic number77 more wins put the Bears in the playoffs, whatever any other team does.
NFC North magic number8If they win all 8 games they have left, the Bears win the NFC North whatever any other team does.
Elimination numberNot yetThe Bears cannot be knocked out by their own results yet. Even if they lose all 8 games they have left, there is still a way in.

These three are proved, not played out: we check every way the season can still finish. How the proof works

If they win every game left, they are in. Each row is a final record and how often it was enough.

  1. 12-5 or better99+ in 100Happens 45 times in 100
  2. 11-697 in 100Most likely finish. Happens 24 times in 100
  3. 10-776 in 100Happens 18 times in 100
  4. 9-830 in 100Happens 9 times in 100
  5. 8-93 in 100Happens 3 times in 100
  6. 7-10<1 in 100Happens fewer than 1 time in 100

Bears playoff scenarios for week 10

Next game, week 11 vs Saints Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET

If they win90
Today85
If they lose72

A big game. Winning instead of losing is worth 18 in 100. The Bears win this game 73 times in 100.

The Bears do not play in week 10.

Best and worst case this week

Best week88Cardinals beat Rams, Raiders beat Seahawks
Worst week84Rams beat Cardinals, Seahawks beat Raiders

Bears clinching scenarios for week 10

No. The Bears cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Bears be eliminated in week 10?

No. The Bears cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Every answer here is proved from the results still possible, with the league's tiebreakers through conference record. Clinching scenarios for every team

Who Bears fans should root for in week 10

  1. LVRaidersover the Seahawks Sun, Nov 15+3
  2. ARICardinalsover the Rams Sun, Nov 15+3

The number is how much a result helps, in chances out of 100. Swings under 1.5 are left out because they are too small to trust.

Try your own Bears playoff scenarios

Tap a result. We replay the season 6,000 times on your device and move the ball.

Bears games left

  1. Wk 11vs SaintsSun, Nov 22 · wins 73 in 100
  2. Wk 12at LionsThu, Nov 26 · wins 45 in 100
  3. Wk 13vs JaguarsSun, Dec 6 · wins 45 in 100
  4. Wk 14at DolphinsSun, Dec 13 · wins 68 in 100
  5. Wk 15at BillsSat, Dec 19 · wins 38 in 100
  6. Wk 16vs PackersFri, Dec 25 · wins 63 in 100
  7. Wk 17vs LionsSun, Jan 3 · wins 55 in 100
  8. Wk 18at VikingsSun, Jan 10 · wins 43 in 100

Other games in week 10

  1. Rams at CardinalsSun, Nov 15
  2. Seahawks at RaidersSun, Nov 15
  3. 49ers at CowboysSun, Nov 15
  4. Steelers at BengalsSun, Nov 15
  5. Chargers at RavensMon, Nov 16

Bears playoff picture today

The Bears are 7-2 and hold the NFC 6th seed. They are 2 games ahead of the Seahawks, the first team outside the playoff places.

They are 3rd in the NFC North, level with the Lions but behind on a tiebreaker.

If the playoffs started today, the Bears would visit the Giants in the wild card round.

Last 5:LWWWWThey have won 4 in a row.

Our strength rating puts them 7th of 32, 3.7 points better than an average team. The Bears made the playoffs in 1 of the last 5 seasons (2025).

See every seed in the NFC playoff picture and today's playoff bracket.

NFC North standings

TeamRecordIn divisionPlayoffsWin division
DET Lions7-22-08934
MIN Vikings7-23-19543
CHI Bears7-20-28521
GB Packers6-41-3452

Bears playoff odds by seed

How often each seed came up, out of 100 seasons.

  1. 1st seed bye week12
  2. 2nd seed9
  3. 3rd seed<1
  4. 4th seed last home game<1
  5. 5th seed24
  6. 6th seed24
  7. 7th seed16
  8. Miss the playoffs15

How far the Bears can go

The Bears playoff odds for each round, out of 100. We play the bracket in every season, up to the Super Bowl.

  1. Make the playoffs85in 100
  2. Reach the divisional round50in 100
  3. Reach the conference title game25in 100
  4. Reach the Super Bowl13in 100
  5. Win the Super Bowl6in 100

Bears remaining schedule

The Bears have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 46-27, the hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

WeekDateOpponentTheir recordChance to win
11Sun, Nov 22vs Saints3-6 73 in 100
12Thu, Nov 26at Lions7-2 45 in 100
13Sun, Dec 6vs Jaguars7-2 45 in 100
14Sun, Dec 13at Dolphins1-8 68 in 100
15Sat, Dec 19at Bills8-1 38 in 100
16Fri, Dec 25vs Packers6-4 63 in 100
17Sun, Jan 3vs Lions7-2 55 in 100
18Sun, Jan 10at Vikings7-2 43 in 100

Every game this week, with kickoff times in your own time zone, is on the NFL games this week page. The Bears bye is in week 10. Every team's week off is in our guide to NFL bye weeks 2026.

Bears results and how their playoff chances moved

Each row shows the playoff chance once that week was complete.

WeekDateOpponentResultPlayoff chance after
1Sun, Sep 13at PanthersWon 59 to 3767 in 100
2Sun, Sep 20vs VikingsLost 3 to 956 in 100 -11
3Mon, Sep 28vs EaglesWon 27 to 776 in 100 +20
4Sun, Oct 4vs JetsWon 23 to 1281 in 100 +5
5Sun, Oct 11at PackersLost 7 to 3155 in 100 -26
6Sun, Oct 18at FalconsWon 31 to 2372 in 100 +17
7Thu, Oct 22vs PatriotsWon 30 to 2474 in 100 +2
8Mon, Nov 2at SeahawksWon 34 to 1786 in 100 +12
9Sun, Nov 8vs BuccaneersWon 27 to 2486 in 100

Tiebreakers in play for the Bears

These ties are being broken in today's standings.

  • BehindDET The Lions are ahead of CHI the Bears and MIN the Vikings on head to head.
  • BehindMIN The Vikings are ahead of CHI the Bears on head to head.

The steps follow the league's tiebreaking procedures. See every step or read our guide to NFL tiebreakers.

How we got these numbers

Three steps, run again after every game window.

  1. Rate every teamWe rate every team from the points in its games so far.
  2. Play out the seasonEvery game left is played out 50,000 times.
  3. Seed every seasonEach of those seasons is seeded with the real NFL tiebreakers.

The result

CHI 85 in 100

The Bears made the playoffs in 85 of every 100 seasons.

Clinched and eliminated are proved, not played out. They and the magic numbers are worked out another way. They are proved from every result still possible, so they are certain, not likely. How the proof works

✓Checked Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET. Our seeding matches the official standings for 32 of 32 teams. How it works

Bears playoff questions

What are the Bears playoff chances right now?

The Bears make the playoffs in 85 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is an 85% chance. At 7-2 they hold the NFC 6th seed today. That is down 1 from last week. Updated Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET.

Can the Bears still make the playoffs?

Yes. The Bears make the playoffs 85 times in 100 in our runs. They are 2 games ahead of the Seahawks, the first team outside the playoff places.

What do the Bears need to make the playoffs?

In our runs a final record of 10-7 got in 76 times in 100 and 9-8 got in 30 times in 100. If they win every game left, they are in.

Are the Bears eliminated from the playoffs?

No. The Bears are not eliminated. The Bears cannot be knocked out by their own results yet. Even if they lose all 8 games they have left, there is still a way in. They are 2 games ahead of the Seahawks, the first team outside the playoff places.

What is the Bears magic number?

The Bears magic number is 7. 7 more wins put the Bears in the playoffs, whatever any other team does. If they win all 8 games they have left, the Bears win the NFC North whatever any other team does.

What are the Bears playoff scenarios for week 10?

The Bears do not play in week 10. Their next game is vs the Saints on Sun, Nov 22. With the other key results added, the best case this week is 88 in 100 and the worst case is 84.

Can the Bears clinch a playoff spot this week?

No. The Bears cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Bears be eliminated this week?

No. The Bears cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Who should Bears fans root for this week?

Besides their own game, the results that help the Bears most in week 10 are the Raiders over the Seahawks and the Cardinals over the Rams.

Who do the Bears play next?

Next they play vs the Saints on Sun, Nov 22. A win lifts the chance to 90 in 100. A loss drops it to 72.

Can the Bears still win the NFC North?

The Bears win the NFC North in 21 of 100. They are 3rd in the NFC North, level with the Lions but behind on a tiebreaker.

What are the Bears Super Bowl chances?

The Bears reach the Super Bowl in 13 of every 100 seasons we play out and win it in 6.

How hard is the Bears remaining schedule?

The Bears have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 46-27, the hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

More playoff chances