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Updated · Week 10 · 50,000 seasons played out

Green Bay Packers playoff chances

The Packers make the playoffs in 45 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 45% chance as of week 10.

GB Green Bay Packers

The Packers make the playoffs in 45 of every 100 seasons we play out. At 6-4 they hold the NFC 7th seed today.

  • 6-4Record
  • 7thin the NFC today
  • 2in 100 win the NFC North
  • -22since last week

Next game at the Rams (week 12)

PLAYOFFS102030405040302010last week45in 100

The ball shows how far the Packers are from the playoffs. The end zone is 100 in 100.

100 seasons, one dot each

  • 2 win the NFC North
  • 43 get in as a wild card
  • 55 miss the playoffs

Chance after each weekUp 20 since week 1

100500Wk 1Wk 4Wk 7Now45

What the Packers need to make the playoffs

Magic numberTiebreakWinning all 7 games they have left might be enough for the Packers, but only if a tiebreaker goes their way. On wins alone they need help.
NFC North magic numberNeeds helpThe Packers cannot win the NFC North on their own. Even if they win all 7 games they have left, they need another team to slip.
Elimination number7The Packers are knocked out for certain only if they lose all 7 games they have left.

These three are proved, not played out: we check every way the season can still finish. How the proof works

If they win every game left, they are in. Each row is a final record and how often it was enough.

  1. 12-5 or better99+ in 100Happens 8 times in 100
  2. 11-694 in 100Happens 17 times in 100
  3. 10-764 in 100Most likely finish. Happens 25 times in 100
  4. 9-820 in 100Happens 25 times in 100
  5. 8-91 in 100Happens 17 times in 100
  6. 7-10 or worse<1 in 100Happens 8 times in 100

Packers playoff scenarios for week 10

Next game, week 12 at Rams Wed, Nov 25, 8:00 PM ET

If they win67
Today45
If they lose28

A huge game. Winning instead of losing is worth 39 in 100. The Packers win this game 43 times in 100.

The Packers do not play in week 10.

Best and worst case this week

Best week51Cardinals beat Rams, Raiders beat Seahawks
Worst week40Rams beat Cardinals, Seahawks beat Raiders

Packers clinching scenarios for week 10

No. The Packers cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Packers be eliminated in week 10?

No. The Packers cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Every answer here is proved from the results still possible, with the league's tiebreakers through conference record. Clinching scenarios for every team

Who Packers fans should root for in week 10

  1. ARICardinalsover the Rams Sun, Nov 15+6
  2. LVRaidersover the Seahawks Sun, Nov 15+5

The number is how much a result helps, in chances out of 100. Swings under 1.5 are left out because they are too small to trust.

Try your own Packers playoff scenarios

Tap a result. We replay the season 6,000 times on your device and move the ball.

Packers games left

  1. Wk 12at RamsWed, Nov 25 · wins 43 in 100
  2. Wk 13at SaintsSun, Dec 6 · wins 56 in 100
  3. Wk 14vs BillsSun, Dec 13 · wins 40 in 100
  4. Wk 15vs DolphinsSun, Dec 20 · wins 70 in 100
  5. Wk 16at BearsFri, Dec 25 · wins 37 in 100
  6. Wk 17vs TexansMon, Jan 4 · wins 55 in 100
  7. Wk 18vs LionsSun, Jan 10 · wins 47 in 100

Other games in week 10

  1. Rams at CardinalsSun, Nov 15
  2. Seahawks at RaidersSun, Nov 15
  3. 49ers at CowboysSun, Nov 15
  4. Steelers at BengalsSun, Nov 15
  5. Chargers at RavensMon, Nov 16

Packers playoff picture today

The Packers are 6-4 and hold the NFC 7th seed. They are half a game ahead of the Seahawks, the first team outside the playoff places.

They are 4th in the NFC North, 1.5 games behind the Lions.

If the playoffs started today, the Packers would visit the Lions in the wild card round.

Last 5:WLWWLThey lost their last game.

Our strength rating puts them 14th of 32, 1.0 points better than an average team. The Packers made the playoffs in 4 of the last 5 seasons (2021, 2023, 2024, 2025).

See every seed in the NFC playoff picture and today's playoff bracket.

NFC North standings

TeamRecordIn divisionPlayoffsWin division
DET Lions7-22-08934
MIN Vikings7-23-19543
CHI Bears7-20-28521
GB Packers6-41-3452

Packers playoff odds by seed

How often each seed came up, out of 100 seasons.

  1. 1st seed bye week<1
  2. 2nd seed1
  3. 3rd seed<1
  4. 4th seed last home game<1
  5. 5th seed7
  6. 6th seed16
  7. 7th seed20
  8. Miss the playoffs55

How far the Packers can go

The Packers playoff odds for each round, out of 100. We play the bracket in every season, up to the Super Bowl.

  1. Make the playoffs45in 100
  2. Reach the divisional round20in 100
  3. Reach the conference title game8in 100
  4. Reach the Super Bowl4in 100
  5. Win the Super Bowl2in 100

Packers remaining schedule

The Packers have 7 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 34-29, the 6th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

WeekDateOpponentTheir recordChance to win
12Wed, Nov 25at Rams5-4 43 in 100
13Sun, Dec 6at Saints3-6 56 in 100
14Sun, Dec 13vs Bills8-1 40 in 100
15Sun, Dec 20vs Dolphins1-8 70 in 100
16Fri, Dec 25at Bears7-2 37 in 100
17Mon, Jan 4vs Texans3-6 55 in 100
18Sun, Jan 10vs Lions7-2 47 in 100

Every game this week, with kickoff times in your own time zone, is on the NFL games this week page. The Packers bye is in week 11. Every team's week off is in our guide to NFL bye weeks 2026.

Packers results and how their playoff chances moved

Each row shows the playoff chance once that week was complete.

WeekDateOpponentResultPlayoff chance after
1Sun, Sep 13at VikingsLost 22 to 3925 in 100
2Sun, Sep 20at JetsWon 20 to 1732 in 100 +7
3Thu, Sep 24vs FalconsLost 14 to 3514 in 100 -18
4Sun, Oct 4at BuccaneersWon 17 to 1421 in 100 +7
5Sun, Oct 11vs BearsWon 31 to 746 in 100 +25
6Sun, Oct 18vs CowboysWon 23 to 1358 in 100 +12
7Sun, Oct 25at LionsLost 17 to 2047 in 100 -11
8Thu, Oct 29vs PanthersWon 27 to 1955 in 100 +8
9Sun, Nov 8at PatriotsWon 45 to 2767 in 100 +12
10Sun, Nov 15vs VikingsLost 10 to 30week not finished

If the Packers miss the playoffs: draft position

  • 55in 100 miss the playoffs
  • No. 16average first round pick
  • <1in 100 get a top 5 pick
  • <1in 100 get the first pick

If the Packers miss the playoffs, their own first round pick lands at about No. 16 on average.

Picks 1 to 18 go to the teams that miss the playoffs, worst record first. Trades are not included.

How we got these numbers

Three steps, run again after every game window.

  1. Rate every teamWe rate every team from the points in its games so far.
  2. Play out the seasonEvery game left is played out 50,000 times.
  3. Seed every seasonEach of those seasons is seeded with the real NFL tiebreakers.

The result

GB 45 in 100

The Packers made the playoffs in 45 of every 100 seasons.

Clinched and eliminated are proved, not played out. They and the magic numbers are worked out another way. They are proved from every result still possible, so they are certain, not likely. How the proof works

✓Checked Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET. Our seeding matches the official standings for 32 of 32 teams. How it works

Packers playoff questions

What are the Packers playoff chances right now?

The Packers make the playoffs in 45 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 45% chance. At 6-4 they hold the NFC 7th seed today. That is down 22 from last week. Updated Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET.

Can the Packers still make the playoffs?

Yes, but they need things to go their way. The Packers make the playoffs 45 times in 100 in our runs. They are half a game ahead of the Seahawks, the first team outside the playoff places. If they win every game left, they are in.

What do the Packers need to make the playoffs?

In our runs a final record of 11-6 got in 94 times in 100, 10-7 got in 64 times in 100 and 9-8 got in 20 times in 100. If they win every game left, they are in.

Are the Packers eliminated from the playoffs?

No. The Packers are not eliminated. The Packers are knocked out for certain only if they lose all 7 games they have left. They are half a game ahead of the Seahawks, the first team outside the playoff places.

What is the Packers magic number?

The Packers do not have a magic number yet. Winning all 7 games they have left might be enough for the Packers, but only if a tiebreaker goes their way. On wins alone they need help. The Packers cannot win the NFC North on their own. Even if they win all 7 games they have left, they need another team to slip.

What are the Packers playoff scenarios for week 10?

The Packers do not play in week 10. Their next game is at the Rams on Wed, Nov 25. With the other key results added, the best case this week is 51 in 100 and the worst case is 40.

Can the Packers clinch a playoff spot this week?

No. The Packers cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Packers be eliminated this week?

No. The Packers cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Who should Packers fans root for this week?

Besides their own game, the results that help the Packers most in week 10 are the Cardinals over the Rams and the Raiders over the Seahawks.

Who do the Packers play next?

Next they play at the Rams on Wed, Nov 25. A win lifts the chance to 67 in 100. A loss drops it to 28.

Can the Packers still win the NFC North?

The Packers win the NFC North in 2 of 100. They are 4th in the NFC North, 1.5 games behind the Lions.

What are the Packers Super Bowl chances?

The Packers reach the Super Bowl in 4 of every 100 seasons we play out and win it in 2.

How hard is the Packers remaining schedule?

The Packers have 7 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 34-29, the 6th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

More playoff chances