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Updated · Week 10 · 50,000 seasons played out

New England Patriots playoff chances

The Patriots make the playoffs in 41 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 41% chance as of week 10.

NE New England Patriots

The Patriots make the playoffs in 41 of every 100 seasons we play out. At 5-5 they sit 8th in the AFC, 1 spot outside the playoff places.

  • 5-5Record
  • 8thin the AFC today
  • 3in 100 win the AFC East
  • -20since last week

Next game at the Chargers (week 12)

PLAYOFFS102030405040302010last week41in 100

The ball shows how far the Patriots are from the playoffs. The end zone is 100 in 100.

100 seasons, one dot each

  • 3 win the AFC East
  • 38 get in as a wild card
  • 59 miss the playoffs

Chance after each weekUp 7 since week 1

100500Wk 1Wk 4Wk 7Now41

What the Patriots need to make the playoffs

Magic numberNeeds helpThe Patriots cannot lock up a playoff spot on their own. Even if they win all 7 games they have left, other results could keep them out.
AFC East magic numberNeeds helpThe Patriots cannot win the AFC East on their own. Even if they win all 7 games they have left, they need another team to slip.
Elimination number7The Patriots are knocked out for certain only if they lose all 7 games they have left.

These three are proved, not played out: we check every way the season can still finish. How the proof works

If they win every game left, they are in. Each row is a final record and how often it was enough.

  1. 11-6 or better99+ in 100Happens 8 times in 100
  2. 10-794 in 100Happens 16 times in 100
  3. 9-858 in 100Happens 25 times in 100
  4. 8-912 in 100Most likely finish. Happens 26 times in 100
  5. 7-101 in 100Happens 17 times in 100
  6. 6-11 or worse<1 in 100Happens 8 times in 100

Patriots playoff scenarios for week 10

Next game, week 12 at Chargers Sun, Nov 29, 8:20 PM ET

If they win52
Today41
If they lose22

A huge game. Winning instead of losing is worth 29 in 100. The Patriots win this game 64 times in 100.

The Patriots do not play in week 10.

Best and worst case this week

Best week42Seahawks beat Raiders, Bengals beat Steelers
Worst week38Raiders beat Seahawks, Steelers beat Bengals

Patriots clinching scenarios for week 10

No. The Patriots cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Patriots be eliminated in week 10?

No. The Patriots cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Every answer here is proved from the results still possible, with the league's tiebreakers through conference record. Clinching scenarios for every team

Who Patriots fans should root for in week 10

  1. SEASeahawksover the Raiders Sun, Nov 15+3
  2. CINBengalsover the Steelers Sun, Nov 15+2

The number is how much a result helps, in chances out of 100. Swings under 1.5 are left out because they are too small to trust.

Try your own Patriots playoff scenarios

Tap a result. We replay the season 6,000 times on your device and move the ball.

Patriots games left

  1. Wk 12at ChargersSun, Nov 29 · wins 64 in 100
  2. Wk 13vs BillsSun, Dec 6 · wins 37 in 100
  3. Wk 14vs VikingsThu, Dec 10 · wins 42 in 100
  4. Wk 15at ChiefsMon, Dec 21 · wins 31 in 100
  5. Wk 16at JetsSun, Dec 27 · wins 56 in 100
  6. Wk 17vs BroncosSun, Jan 3 · wins 49 in 100
  7. Wk 18vs DolphinsSun, Jan 10 · wins 67 in 100

Other games in week 10

  1. Rams at CardinalsSun, Nov 15
  2. Seahawks at RaidersSun, Nov 15
  3. 49ers at CowboysSun, Nov 15
  4. Steelers at BengalsSun, Nov 15
  5. Chargers at RavensMon, Nov 16

Patriots playoff picture today

The Patriots are 5-5 and sit 8th in the AFC. They are 1 game behind the Browns, who hold the last playoff place.

They are 2nd in the AFC East, 3.5 games behind the Bills.

If the playoffs started today, the Patriots would miss out.

Last 5:WLWLLThey have lost 2 in a row.

Our strength rating puts them 16th of 32, 0.1 points worse than an average team. The Patriots made the playoffs in 2 of the last 5 seasons (2021, 2025).

See every seed in the AFC playoff picture and today's playoff bracket.

AFC East standings

TeamRecordIn divisionPlayoffsWin division
BUF Bills8-11-199+97
NE Patriots5-53-0413
NYJ Jets2-80-3<1<1
MIA Dolphins1-81-1<1<1

Patriots playoff odds by seed

How often each seed came up, out of 100 seasons.

  1. 1st seed bye week<1
  2. 2nd seed<1
  3. 3rd seed1
  4. 4th seed last home game2
  5. 5th seed6
  6. 6th seed12
  7. 7th seed20
  8. Miss the playoffs59

How far the Patriots can go

The Patriots playoff odds for each round, out of 100. We play the bracket in every season, up to the Super Bowl.

  1. Make the playoffs41in 100
  2. Reach the divisional round14in 100
  3. Reach the conference title game5in 100
  4. Reach the Super Bowl2in 100
  5. Win the Super Bowl1in 100

Patriots remaining schedule

The Patriots have 7 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 32-31, the 15th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

WeekDateOpponentTheir recordChance to win
12Sun, Nov 29at Chargers0-8 64 in 100
13Sun, Dec 6vs Bills8-1 37 in 100
14Thu, Dec 10vs Vikings7-2 42 in 100
15Mon, Dec 21at Chiefs7-2 31 in 100
16Sun, Dec 27at Jets2-8 56 in 100
17Sun, Jan 3vs Broncos7-2 49 in 100
18Sun, Jan 10vs Dolphins1-8 67 in 100

Every game this week, with kickoff times in your own time zone, is on the NFL games this week page. The Patriots bye is in week 11. Every team's week off is in our guide to NFL bye weeks 2026.

Patriots results and how their playoff chances moved

Each row shows the playoff chance once that week was complete.

WeekDateOpponentResultPlayoff chance after
1Wed, Sep 9at SeahawksLost 10 to 1334 in 100
2Sun, Sep 20vs SteelersWon 20 to 358 in 100 +24
3Sun, Sep 27at JaguarsLost 6 to 3539 in 100 -19
4Sun, Oct 4at BillsWon 29 to 2653 in 100 +14
5Sun, Oct 11vs RaidersWon 45 to 1769 in 100 +16
6Sun, Oct 18vs JetsWon 26 to 1975 in 100 +6
7Thu, Oct 22at BearsLost 24 to 3071 in 100 -4
8Sun, Nov 1at DolphinsWon 24 to 1977 in 100 +6
9Sun, Nov 8vs PackersLost 27 to 4561 in 100 -16
10Sun, Nov 15vs LionsLost 10 to 35week not finished

If the Patriots miss the playoffs: draft position

  • 59in 100 miss the playoffs
  • No. 14average first round pick
  • <1in 100 get a top 5 pick
  • <1in 100 get the first pick

If the Patriots miss the playoffs, their own first round pick lands at about No. 14 on average.

Picks 1 to 18 go to the teams that miss the playoffs, worst record first. Trades are not included.

How we got these numbers

Three steps, run again after every game window.

  1. Rate every teamWe rate every team from the points in its games so far.
  2. Play out the seasonEvery game left is played out 50,000 times.
  3. Seed every seasonEach of those seasons is seeded with the real NFL tiebreakers.

The result

NE 41 in 100

The Patriots made the playoffs in 41 of every 100 seasons.

Clinched and eliminated are proved, not played out. They and the magic numbers are worked out another way. They are proved from every result still possible, so they are certain, not likely. How the proof works

✓Checked Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET. Our seeding matches the official standings for 32 of 32 teams. How it works

Patriots playoff questions

What are the Patriots playoff chances right now?

The Patriots make the playoffs in 41 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 41% chance. At 5-5 they sit 8th in the AFC, 1 spot outside the playoff places. That is down 20 from last week. Updated Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET.

Can the Patriots still make the playoffs?

Yes, but they need things to go their way. The Patriots make the playoffs 41 times in 100 in our runs. They are 1 game behind the Browns, who hold the last playoff place. If they win every game left, they are in.

What do the Patriots need to make the playoffs?

In our runs a final record of 10-7 got in 94 times in 100, 9-8 got in 58 times in 100 and 8-9 got in 12 times in 100. If they win every game left, they are in.

Are the Patriots eliminated from the playoffs?

No. The Patriots are not eliminated. The Patriots are knocked out for certain only if they lose all 7 games they have left. They are 1 game behind the Browns, who hold the last playoff place.

What is the Patriots magic number?

The Patriots do not have a magic number yet. The Patriots cannot lock up a playoff spot on their own. Even if they win all 7 games they have left, other results could keep them out. The Patriots cannot win the AFC East on their own. Even if they win all 7 games they have left, they need another team to slip.

What are the Patriots playoff scenarios for week 10?

The Patriots do not play in week 10. Their next game is at the Chargers on Sun, Nov 29. With the other key results added, the best case this week is 42 in 100 and the worst case is 38.

Can the Patriots clinch a playoff spot this week?

No. The Patriots cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Patriots be eliminated this week?

No. The Patriots cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Who should Patriots fans root for this week?

Besides their own game, the results that help the Patriots most in week 10 are the Seahawks over the Raiders and the Bengals over the Steelers.

Who do the Patriots play next?

Next they play at the Chargers on Sun, Nov 29. A win lifts the chance to 52 in 100. A loss drops it to 22.

Can the Patriots still win the AFC East?

The Patriots win the AFC East in 3 of 100. They are 2nd in the AFC East, 3.5 games behind the Bills.

What are the Patriots Super Bowl chances?

The Patriots reach the Super Bowl in 2 of every 100 seasons we play out and win it in 1.

How hard is the Patriots remaining schedule?

The Patriots have 7 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 32-31, the 15th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

More playoff chances