Updated · Week 10 · 50,000 seasons played out
NFL playoff chances calculator
Will your team make the playoffs? Pick a team. We play out the rest of the season 50,000 times and tell you in plain numbers.
Pick your team
The number on each button is that team's playoff chance out of 100 today.
AFC
Closest race today: Cleveland Browns playoff chances
CLE Cleveland Browns
The Browns make the playoffs in 50 of every 100 seasons we play out. At 6-4 they hold the AFC 7th seed today.
- 6-4Record
- 7thin the AFC today
- 7in 100 win the AFC North
- +20since last week
Next game vs the Raiders (week 12)
The ball shows how far the Browns are from the playoffs. The end zone is 100 in 100.
100 seasons, one dot each
- 7 win the AFC North
- 43 get in as a wild card
- 50 miss the playoffs
Chance after each weekUp 29 since week 1
What the Browns need to make the playoffs
These three are proved, not played out: we check every way the season can still finish. How the proof works
If they win every game left, they are in. Each row is a final record and how often it was enough.
- 12-5 or better99+ in 100Happens 5 times in 100
- 11-699 in 100Happens 13 times in 100
- 10-785 in 100Happens 23 times in 100
- 9-840 in 100Most likely finish. Happens 26 times in 100
- 8-96 in 100Happens 20 times in 100
- 7-10 or worse<1 in 100Happens 12 times in 100
Browns playoff scenarios for week 10
Next game, week 12 vs Raiders Sun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET
A huge game. Winning instead of losing is worth 37 in 100. The Browns win this game 54 times in 100.
The Browns do not play in week 10.
Best and worst case this week
Browns clinching scenarios for week 10
No. The Browns cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.
Can the Browns be eliminated in week 10?
No. The Browns cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.
Every answer here is proved from the results still possible, with the league's tiebreakers through conference record. Clinching scenarios for every team
Who Browns fans should root for in week 10
- SEASeahawksover the Raiders Sun, Nov 15+5
- LACChargersover the Ravens Mon, Nov 16+3
The number is how much a result helps, in chances out of 100. Swings under 1.5 are left out because they are too small to trust.
Try your own Browns playoff scenarios
Tap a result. We replay the season 6,000 times on your device and move the ball.
Browns games left
- Wk 12vs RaidersSun, Nov 29 · wins 54 in 100
- Wk 13vs BengalsSun, Dec 6 · wins 35 in 100
- Wk 14vs FalconsSun, Dec 13 · wins 56 in 100
- Wk 15at GiantsSun, Dec 20 · wins 42 in 100
- Wk 16at RavensSun, Dec 27 · wins 48 in 100
- Wk 17vs ColtsSun, Jan 3 · wins 59 in 100
- Wk 18at BengalsSun, Jan 10 · wins 26 in 100
Other games in week 10
- Rams at CardinalsSun, Nov 15
- Seahawks at RaidersSun, Nov 15
- 49ers at CowboysSun, Nov 15
- Steelers at BengalsSun, Nov 15
- Chargers at RavensMon, Nov 16
Biggest games in week 10
The games with the most riding on them. Beside each team is its playoff chance out of 100 with a win and with a loss. Kickoff times also show in your own time zone.
The playoff race on one field
Each team is a marker. The further right it sits, the closer it is to the playoffs. Tap a marker to open that team.
AFC
NFC
Every team's playoff chances today
Teams are in today's seeding order. The dashed line is the playoff cut. All chances are out of 100.
AFC
| Seed | Team | Record | Playoff chance | Win division | Top seed | Since last week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF Bills | 8-1 | 99+ | 97 | 42 | +2 |
| 2 | KC Chiefs | 7-2 | 96 | 57 | 14 | +5 |
| 3 | JAX Jaguars | 7-2 | 99 | 98 | 18 | +1 |
| 4 | PIT Steelers | 6-2 | 85 | 35 | 5 | +1 |
| 5 | DEN Broncos | 7-2 | 92 | 41 | 11 | +1 |
| 6 | CIN Bengals | 6-2 | 94 | 58 | 10 | 0 |
| 7 | CLE Browns | 6-4 | 50 | 7 | <1 | +20 |
| 8 | NE Patriots | 5-5 | 41 | 3 | <1 | -20 |
| 9 | LV Raiders | 4-5 | 20 | 2 | <1 | +2 |
| 10 | BAL Ravens | 4-5 | 10 | 1 | <1 | +1 |
| 11 | HOU Texans | 3-6 | 12 | 2 | <1 | -13 |
| 12 | IND Colts | 3-7 | 1 | <1 | <1 | 0 |
| 13 | NYJ Jets | 2-8 | <1 | <1 | <1 | -1 |
| 14 | MIA Dolphins | 1-8 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 0 |
| 15 | TEN Titans | 1-8 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 0 |
| 16 | LAC Chargers | 0-8 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 0 |
NFC
| Seed | Team | Record | Playoff chance | Win division | Top seed | Since last week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF 49ers | 7-1 | 97 | 87 | 40 | +1 |
| 2 | DET Lions | 7-2 | 89 | 34 | 20 | +14 |
| 3 | NYG Giants | 5-3-1 | 59 | 57 | 1 | -16 |
| 4 | CAR Panthers | 4-5 | 36 | 35 | <1 | +12 |
| 5 | MIN Vikings | 7-2 | 95 | 43 | 26 | +13 |
| 6 | CHI Bears | 7-2 | 85 | 21 | 12 | -1 |
| 7 | GB Packers | 6-4 | 45 | 2 | <1 | -22 |
| 8 | SEA Seahawks | 5-4 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 | LAR Rams | 5-4 | 35 | 4 | 1 | -1 |
| 10 | DAL Cowboys | 4-5 | 33 | 30 | <1 | +7 |
| 11 | WSH Commanders | 3-5-1 | 13 | 12 | <1 | +7 |
| 12 | TB Buccaneers | 3-6 | 49 | 48 | <1 | +1 |
| 13 | ARI Cardinals | 3-6 | 2 | <1 | <1 | 0 |
| 14 | NO Saints | 3-6 | 10 | 9 | <1 | -6 |
| 15 | ATL Falcons | 3-7 | 8 | 8 | <1 | -8 |
| 16 | PHI Eagles | 2-7 | 1 | 1 | <1 | 0 |
See the full NFL playoff picture, or the AFC and NFC on their own. Who can clinch this week, and every magic number, is on the clinching scenarios page.
If the playoffs started today
The first round from today's standings. The gold box is the team that would rest.
AFC
How the calculator works
- Rate every teamWe read the points margin of every game played and adjust for the opponent and home field.
- Play out the seasonEvery game left is played 50,000 times, with luck included, the way real seasons go.
- Seed it by the rulesEach of those seasons is seeded with the real NFL tiebreakers. We count how often your team got in.
We tested the method on the 2021 to 2025 seasons, 2,400 forecasts in all. When it said 65 to 75 in 100, teams made the playoffs 72 times in 100. See the full test
Questions people ask
Which NFL teams are most likely to make the playoffs right now?
In the AFC the best chances belong to the Bills (more than 99 in 100), the Jaguars (99 in 100) and the Chiefs (96 in 100). In the NFC they belong to the 49ers (97 in 100), the Vikings (95 in 100) and the Lions (89 in 100). These numbers were updated Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET.
How does the NFL playoff calculator work?
It rates every team from the points in its games, plays out every game left 50,000 times, and seeds each of those seasons with the real NFL tiebreakers. A team's chance is the share of seasons in which it made the playoffs.
How many teams make the NFL playoffs?
Fourteen teams make the playoffs, seven from each conference. Four are division winners and three are wild cards. The top seed in each conference rests in the first round.
How often are the playoff chances updated?
The site pulls new scores and rebuilds every number after each game window. The time of the last update is shown at the top of every page.
How accurate are these playoff chances?
We tested the method on the 2021 to 2025 seasons, 2,400 forecasts in all. When it said 65 to 75 in 100, teams made the playoffs 72 times in 100.
Are these betting odds?
No. They are estimates of how often a team makes the playoffs, made for fans. They are not betting odds and they are not betting advice.
From the blog
Plain guides to the playoff race. Each one comes with its own live tool.
Playoff raceWhat is a wild card in the NFL?Three playoff spots in each conference go to teams that did not win their division. See who holds them today and how many wins it usually takes.
Rules explainedNFL tiebreakers: every step, in orderHead to head comes first, then 11 more steps. See the full order, how three team ties work and the ties being broken in today's standings.
ScheduleNFL bye weeks 2026: who is off this weekByes run from Week 5 to Week 14 in 2026. See who is off this week, the bye week of all 32 teams and how teams do after a week off.