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Updated · Week 10 · 50,000 seasons played out

Indianapolis Colts playoff chances

The Colts make the playoffs in 1 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 1% chance as of week 10.

IND Indianapolis Colts

The Colts make the playoffs in 1 of every 100 seasons we play out. At 3-7 they sit 12th in the AFC, 5 spots outside the playoff places.

  • 3-7Record
  • 12thin the AFC today
  • <1in 100 win the AFC South
  • 0since last week

Next game at the Texans (week 11)

PLAYOFFS1020304050403020101in 100

The ball shows how far the Colts are from the playoffs. The end zone is 100 in 100.

100 seasons, one dot each

  • 0 win the AFC South
  • 1 get in as a wild card
  • 99 miss the playoffs

Chance after each weekDown 21 since week 1

100500Wk 1Wk 4Wk 7Now1

What the Colts need to make the playoffs

Magic numberNeeds helpThe Colts cannot lock up a playoff spot on their own. Even if they win all 7 games they have left, other results could keep them out.
AFC South magic numberNeeds helpThe Colts cannot win the AFC South on their own. Even if they win all 7 games they have left, they need another team to slip.
Elimination number55 more losses knock the Colts out, whatever else happens.

These three are proved, not played out: we check every way the season can still finish. How the proof works

If they win every game left, they get in 88 times in 100. Each row is a final record and how often it was enough.

  1. 9-831 in 100Happens 3 times in 100
  2. 8-93 in 100Happens 9 times in 100
  3. 7-10 or worse<1 in 100Most likely finish. Happens 87 times in 100

Colts playoff scenarios for week 10

Next game, week 11 at Texans Thu, Nov 19, 8:15 PM ET

If they win4
Today1
If they lose<1

A small swing. Winning instead of losing is worth 4 in 100. The Colts win this game 33 times in 100.

The Colts do not play in week 10.

Colts clinching scenarios for week 10

No. The Colts cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Colts be eliminated in week 10?

No. The Colts cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Every answer here is proved from the results still possible, with the league's tiebreakers through conference record. Clinching scenarios for every team

Who Colts fans should root for in week 10

No other game this week moves the Colts by more than 1 in 100.

Try your own Colts playoff scenarios

Tap a result. We replay the season 6,000 times on your device and move the ball.

Colts games left

  1. Wk 11at TexansThu, Nov 19 · wins 33 in 100
  2. Wk 12vs GiantsSun, Nov 29 · wins 48 in 100
  3. Wk 14at EaglesSun, Dec 13 · wins 51 in 100
  4. Wk 15at TitansSun, Dec 20 · wins 52 in 100
  5. Wk 16vs BengalsSun, Dec 27 · wins 31 in 100
  6. Wk 17at BrownsSun, Jan 3 · wins 41 in 100
  7. Wk 18vs JaguarsSun, Jan 10 · wins 25 in 100

Other games in week 10

  1. Rams at CardinalsSun, Nov 15
  2. Seahawks at RaidersSun, Nov 15
  3. 49ers at CowboysSun, Nov 15
  4. Steelers at BengalsSun, Nov 15
  5. Chargers at RavensMon, Nov 16

Colts playoff picture today

The Colts are 3-7 and sit 12th in the AFC. They are 3 games behind the Browns, who hold the last playoff place.

They are 3rd in the AFC South, 4.5 games behind the Jaguars.

If the playoffs started today, the Colts would miss out.

Last 5:LLLLWThey won their last game.

Our strength rating puts them 26th of 32, 3.4 points worse than an average team. The Colts missed the playoffs in each of the last 5 seasons.

See every seed in the AFC playoff picture and today's playoff bracket.

AFC South standings

TeamRecordIn divisionPlayoffsWin division
JAX Jaguars7-22-19998
HOU Texans3-62-1122
IND Colts3-71-21<1
TEN Titans1-81-2<1<1

Colts playoff odds by seed

How often each seed came up, out of 100 seasons.

  1. 1st seed bye week<1
  2. 2nd seed<1
  3. 3rd seed<1
  4. 4th seed last home game<1
  5. 5th seed<1
  6. 6th seed<1
  7. 7th seed1
  8. Miss the playoffs99

How far the Colts can go

The Colts playoff odds for each round, out of 100. We play the bracket in every season, up to the Super Bowl.

  1. Make the playoffs1in 100
  2. Reach the divisional round<1in 100
  3. Reach the conference title game<1in 100
  4. Reach the Super Bowl<1in 100
  5. Win the Super Bowl<1in 100

Colts remaining schedule

The Colts have 7 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 30-32-1, the 22nd hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

WeekDateOpponentTheir recordChance to win
11Thu, Nov 19at Texans3-6 33 in 100
12Sun, Nov 29vs Giants5-3-1 48 in 100
14Sun, Dec 13at Eagles2-7 51 in 100
15Sun, Dec 20at Titans1-8 52 in 100
16Sun, Dec 27vs Bengals6-2 31 in 100
17Sun, Jan 3at Browns6-4 41 in 100
18Sun, Jan 10vs Jaguars7-2 25 in 100

Every game this week, with kickoff times in your own time zone, is on the NFL games this week page. The Colts bye is in week 13. Every team's week off is in our guide to NFL bye weeks 2026.

Colts results and how their playoff chances moved

Each row shows the playoff chance once that week was complete.

WeekDateOpponentResultPlayoff chance after
1Sun, Sep 13vs RavensLost 23 to 4122 in 100
2Sun, Sep 20at ChiefsLost 30 to 3326 in 100 +4
3Sun, Sep 27vs TexansWon 19 to 1725 in 100 -1
4Sun, Oct 4vs CommandersWon 30 to 1338 in 100 +13
5Sun, Oct 11at SteelersLost 22 to 3424 in 100 -14
6Sun, Oct 18vs TitansLost 20 to 2612 in 100 -12
7Sun, Oct 25at VikingsLost 10 to 1610 in 100 -2
8Sun, Nov 1at JaguarsLost 7 to 423 in 100 -7
9Sun, Nov 8vs CowboysLost 23 to 271 in 100 -2
10Sun, Nov 15vs DolphinsWon 24 to 22week not finished

If the Colts miss the playoffs: draft position

  • 99in 100 miss the playoffs
  • No. 8average first round pick
  • 32in 100 get a top 5 pick
  • 1in 100 get the first pick

If the Colts miss the playoffs, their own first round pick lands at about No. 8 on average. They end up with the first overall pick in 1 of 100 seasons and with a top 5 pick in 32.

Picks 1 to 18 go to the teams that miss the playoffs, worst record first. Trades are not included.

How we got these numbers

Three steps, run again after every game window.

  1. Rate every teamWe rate every team from the points in its games so far.
  2. Play out the seasonEvery game left is played out 50,000 times.
  3. Seed every seasonEach of those seasons is seeded with the real NFL tiebreakers.

The result

IND 1 in 100

The Colts made the playoffs in 1 of every 100 seasons.

Clinched and eliminated are proved, not played out. They and the magic numbers are worked out another way. They are proved from every result still possible, so they are certain, not likely. How the proof works

✓Checked Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET. Our seeding matches the official standings for 32 of 32 teams. How it works

Colts playoff questions

What are the Colts playoff chances right now?

The Colts make the playoffs in 1 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 1% chance. At 3-7 they sit 12th in the AFC, 5 spots outside the playoff places. Updated Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET.

Can the Colts still make the playoffs?

Yes, but they need things to go their way. The Colts make the playoffs 1 time in 100 in our runs. They are 3 games behind the Browns, who hold the last playoff place. If they win every game left, they get in 88 times in 100.

What do the Colts need to make the playoffs?

In our runs a final record of 9-8 got in 31 times in 100. If they win every game left, they get in 88 times in 100.

Are the Colts eliminated from the playoffs?

No. The Colts are not eliminated. 5 more losses knock the Colts out, whatever else happens. They are 3 games behind the Browns, who hold the last playoff place.

What is the Colts magic number?

The Colts do not have a magic number yet. The Colts cannot lock up a playoff spot on their own. Even if they win all 7 games they have left, other results could keep them out. The Colts cannot win the AFC South on their own. Even if they win all 7 games they have left, they need another team to slip.

What are the Colts playoff scenarios for week 10?

The Colts do not play in week 10. Their next game is at the Texans on Thu, Nov 19.

Can the Colts clinch a playoff spot this week?

No. The Colts cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Colts be eliminated this week?

No. The Colts cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Who should Colts fans root for this week?

No other game in week 10 moves the Colts by more than 1 in 100.

Who do the Colts play next?

Next they play at the Texans on Thu, Nov 19. A win lifts the chance to 4 in 100. A loss drops it to fewer than 1.

Can the Colts still win the AFC South?

The Colts win the AFC South in fewer than 1 of 100. They are 3rd in the AFC South, 4.5 games behind the Jaguars.

What are the Colts Super Bowl chances?

The Colts reach the Super Bowl in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons we play out and win it in fewer than 1.

How hard is the Colts remaining schedule?

The Colts have 7 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 30-32-1, the 22nd hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

More playoff chances