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Updated · Week 10 · 50,000 seasons played out

Los Angeles Chargers playoff chances

The Chargers make the playoffs in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is less than a 1% chance as of week 10.

LAC Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers make the playoffs in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons we play out. At 0-8 they sit 16th in the AFC, 9 spots outside the playoff places.

  • 0-8Record
  • 16thin the AFC today
  • <1in 100 win the AFC West
  • 0since last week

Next game at the Ravens

PLAYOFFS102030405040302010<1in 100

The ball shows how far the Chargers are from the playoffs. The end zone is 100 in 100.

100 seasons, one dot each

  • 0 win the AFC West
  • 0 get in as a wild card
  • 100 miss the playoffs

Chance after each weekDown 26 since week 1

100500Wk 1Wk 4Wk 7Now<1

What the Chargers need to make the playoffs

Magic numberNeeds helpThe Chargers cannot lock up a playoff spot on their own. Even if they win all 9 games they have left, other results could keep them out.
AFC West magic numberNeeds helpThe Chargers cannot win the AFC West on their own. Even if they win all 9 games they have left, they need another team to slip.
Elimination number44 more losses knock the Chargers out, whatever else happens. 3 more losses could be enough if tiebreakers go against them.

These three are proved, not played out: we check every way the season can still finish. How the proof works

If they win every game left, they get in 46 times in 100. Each row is a final record and how often it was enough.

Chargers playoff scenarios for week 10

This week at Ravens Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 PM ET

If they win<1
Today<1
If they lose<1

A small swing. Winning instead of losing is worth 0 in 100. The Chargers win this game 35 times in 100.

Best and worst case this week

Best week<1Chargers beat Ravens
Worst week<1Ravens beat Chargers

Chargers clinching scenarios for week 10

No. The Chargers cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Chargers be eliminated in week 10?

No. The Chargers cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Every answer here is proved from the results still possible, with the league's tiebreakers through conference record. Clinching scenarios for every team

Who Chargers fans should root for in week 10

No other game this week moves the Chargers by more than 1 in 100.

Try your own Chargers playoff scenarios

Tap a result. We replay the season 6,000 times on your device and move the ball.

Chargers games left

  1. Wk 10at RavensMon, Nov 16 · wins 35 in 100
  2. Wk 11vs JetsSun, Nov 22 · wins 46 in 100
  3. Wk 12vs PatriotsSun, Nov 29 · wins 36 in 100
  4. Wk 13at BuccaneersSun, Dec 6 · wins 22 in 100
  5. Wk 14at RaidersSun, Dec 13 · wins 31 in 100
  6. Wk 15vs 49ersThu, Dec 17 · wins 23 in 100
  7. Wk 16at DolphinsSun, Dec 27 · wins 38 in 100
  8. Wk 17vs ChiefsSun, Jan 3 · wins 23 in 100
  9. Wk 18at BroncosSun, Jan 10 · wins 22 in 100

Other games in week 10

  1. Rams at CardinalsSun, Nov 15
  2. Seahawks at RaidersSun, Nov 15
  3. 49ers at CowboysSun, Nov 15
  4. Steelers at BengalsSun, Nov 15

Chargers playoff picture today

The Chargers are 0-8 and sit 16th in the AFC. They are 5 games behind the Browns, who hold the last playoff place.

They are 4th in the AFC West, 6.5 games behind the Chiefs.

If the playoffs started today, the Chargers would miss out.

Last 5:LLLLLThey have lost 8 in a row.

Our strength rating puts them 32nd of 32, 6.7 points worse than an average team. The Chargers made the playoffs in 3 of the last 5 seasons (2022, 2024, 2025).

See every seed in the AFC playoff picture and today's playoff bracket.

AFC West standings

TeamRecordIn divisionPlayoffsWin division
KC Chiefs7-23-19657
DEN Broncos7-22-19241
LV Raiders4-51-1202
LAC Chargers0-80-3<1<1

Chargers playoff odds by seed

How often each seed came up, out of 100 seasons.

  1. 1st seed bye week<1
  2. 2nd seed<1
  3. 3rd seed<1
  4. 4th seed last home game<1
  5. 5th seed<1
  6. 6th seed<1
  7. 7th seed<1
  8. Miss the playoffs99+

How far the Chargers can go

The Chargers playoff odds for each round, out of 100. We play the bracket in every season, up to the Super Bowl.

  1. Make the playoffs<1in 100
  2. Reach the divisional round<1in 100
  3. Reach the conference title game<1in 100
  4. Reach the Super Bowl<1in 100
  5. Win the Super Bowl<1in 100

Chargers remaining schedule

The Chargers have 9 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 40-42, the 21st hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

WeekDateOpponentTheir recordChance to win
10Mon, Nov 16at Ravens4-5 35 in 100
11Sun, Nov 22vs Jets2-8 46 in 100
12Sun, Nov 29vs Patriots5-5 36 in 100
13Sun, Dec 6at Buccaneers3-6 22 in 100
14Sun, Dec 13at Raiders4-5 31 in 100
15Thu, Dec 17vs 49ers7-1 23 in 100
16Sun, Dec 27at Dolphins1-8 38 in 100
17Sun, Jan 3vs Chiefs7-2 23 in 100
18Sun, Jan 10at Broncos7-2 22 in 100

Every game this week, with kickoff times in your own time zone, is on the NFL games this week page. The Chargers bye is in week 7. Every team's week off is in our guide to NFL bye weeks 2026.

Chargers results and how their playoff chances moved

Each row shows the playoff chance once that week was complete.

WeekDateOpponentResultPlayoff chance after
1Sun, Sep 13vs CardinalsLost 14 to 2626 in 100
2Sun, Sep 20vs RaidersLost 14 to 2612 in 100 -14
3Sun, Sep 27at BillsLost 16 to 248 in 100 -4
4Sun, Oct 4at SeahawksLost 23 to 305 in 100 -3
5Sun, Oct 11vs BroncosLost 17 to 232 in 100 -3
6Sun, Oct 18at ChiefsLost 6 to 22<1 in 100 -2
8Sun, Nov 1at RamsLost 9 to 24<1 in 100 -1
9Sun, Nov 8vs TexansLost 22 to 44<1 in 100

If the Chargers miss the playoffs: draft position

  • 99+in 100 miss the playoffs
  • No. 3average first round pick
  • 89in 100 get a top 5 pick
  • 44in 100 get the first pick

If the Chargers miss the playoffs, their own first round pick lands at about No. 3 on average. They end up with the first overall pick in 44 of 100 seasons and with a top 5 pick in 89.

Picks 1 to 18 go to the teams that miss the playoffs, worst record first. Trades are not included.

How we got these numbers

Three steps, run again after every game window.

  1. Rate every teamWe rate every team from the points in its games so far.
  2. Play out the seasonEvery game left is played out 50,000 times.
  3. Seed every seasonEach of those seasons is seeded with the real NFL tiebreakers.

The result

LAC <1 in 100

The Chargers made the playoffs in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons.

Clinched and eliminated are proved, not played out. They and the magic numbers are worked out another way. They are proved from every result still possible, so they are certain, not likely. How the proof works

✓Checked Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET. Our seeding matches the official standings for 32 of 32 teams. How it works

Chargers playoff questions

What are the Chargers playoff chances right now?

The Chargers make the playoffs in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is less than a 1% chance. At 0-8 they sit 16th in the AFC, 9 spots outside the playoff places. Updated Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET.

Can the Chargers still make the playoffs?

Only just. The Chargers made the playoffs in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons we played out. They are 5 games behind the Browns, who hold the last playoff place. If they win every game left, they get in 46 times in 100.

What do the Chargers need to make the playoffs?

They need a lot to go right. Even winning every game left gets them in 46 times in 100. If they win every game left, they get in 46 times in 100.

Are the Chargers eliminated from the playoffs?

No, not yet. The Chargers still have a path, but they made the playoffs in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons we played out. 4 more losses knock the Chargers out, whatever else happens. 3 more losses could be enough if tiebreakers go against them.

What is the Chargers magic number?

The Chargers do not have a magic number yet. The Chargers cannot lock up a playoff spot on their own. Even if they win all 9 games they have left, other results could keep them out. The Chargers cannot win the AFC West on their own. Even if they win all 9 games they have left, they need another team to slip.

What are the Chargers playoff scenarios for week 10?

The Chargers play at the Ravens on Mon, Nov 16. A win lifts their chance to fewer than 1 in 100 and a loss drops it to fewer than 1. With the other key results added, the best case this week is fewer than 1 in 100 and the worst case is fewer than 1.

Can the Chargers clinch a playoff spot this week?

No. The Chargers cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Chargers be eliminated this week?

No. The Chargers cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Who should Chargers fans root for this week?

No other game in week 10 moves the Chargers by more than 1 in 100.

Who do the Chargers play next?

Next they play at the Ravens on Mon, Nov 16. The result barely moves their chance.

Can the Chargers still win the AFC West?

The Chargers win the AFC West in fewer than 1 of 100. They are 4th in the AFC West, 6.5 games behind the Chiefs.

What are the Chargers Super Bowl chances?

The Chargers reach the Super Bowl in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons we play out and win it in fewer than 1.

How hard is the Chargers remaining schedule?

The Chargers have 9 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 40-42, the 21st hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

More playoff chances