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Updated · Week 10 · 50,000 seasons played out

Jacksonville Jaguars playoff chances

The Jaguars make the playoffs in 99 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 99% chance as of week 10.

JAX Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars make the playoffs in 99 of every 100 seasons we play out. At 7-2 they hold the AFC 3rd seed today.

  • 7-2Record
  • 3rdin the AFC today
  • 98in 100 win the AFC South
  • +1since last week

Next game at the Giants (week 11)

PLAYOFFS10203040504030201099in 100

The ball shows how far the Jaguars are from the playoffs. The end zone is 100 in 100.

100 seasons, one dot each

  • 98 win the AFC South
  • 1 get in as a wild card
  • 1 miss the playoffs

Chance after each weekUp 31 since week 1

100500Wk 1Wk 4Wk 7Now99

What the Jaguars need to make the playoffs

Magic number55 more wins put the Jaguars in the playoffs, whatever any other team does. 4 more wins could be enough if a tiebreaker goes their way.
AFC South magic number55 more wins give the Jaguars the AFC South title, whatever any other team does. 4 more wins could be enough if a tiebreaker goes their way.
Elimination numberNot yetThe Jaguars cannot be knocked out by their own results yet. Even if they lose all 8 games they have left, there is still a way in.

These three are proved, not played out: we check every way the season can still finish. How the proof works

If they win every game left, they are in. Each row is a final record and how often it was enough.

  1. 11-6 or better99+ in 100Most likely finish. Happens 91 times in 100
  2. 10-798 in 100Happens 6 times in 100
  3. 9-878 in 100Happens 2 times in 100

Jaguars playoff scenarios for week 10

Next game, week 11 at Giants Sun, Nov 22, 4:25 PM ET

If they win99+
Today99
If they lose98

A small swing. Winning instead of losing is worth 2 in 100. The Jaguars win this game 69 times in 100.

The Jaguars do not play in week 10.

Jaguars clinching scenarios for week 10

No. The Jaguars cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Jaguars be eliminated in week 10?

No. The Jaguars cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Every answer here is proved from the results still possible, with the league's tiebreakers through conference record. Clinching scenarios for every team

Who Jaguars fans should root for in week 10

No other game this week moves the Jaguars by more than 1 in 100.

Try your own Jaguars playoff scenarios

Tap a result. We replay the season 6,000 times on your device and move the ball.

Jaguars games left

  1. Wk 11at GiantsSun, Nov 22 · wins 69 in 100
  2. Wk 12vs TitansSun, Nov 29 · wins 86 in 100
  3. Wk 13at BearsSun, Dec 6 · wins 55 in 100
  4. Wk 14vs SteelersMon, Dec 14 · wins 69 in 100
  5. Wk 15at TexansSun, Dec 20 · wins 63 in 100
  6. Wk 16at CowboysSun, Dec 27 · wins 66 in 100
  7. Wk 17vs CommandersSun, Jan 3 · wins 80 in 100
  8. Wk 18at ColtsSun, Jan 10 · wins 75 in 100

Other games in week 10

  1. Rams at CardinalsSun, Nov 15
  2. Seahawks at RaidersSun, Nov 15
  3. 49ers at CowboysSun, Nov 15
  4. Steelers at BengalsSun, Nov 15
  5. Chargers at RavensMon, Nov 16

Jaguars playoff picture today

The Jaguars are 7-2 and hold the AFC 3rd seed. They are 2.5 games ahead of the Patriots, the first team outside the playoff places.

They lead the AFC South by 4 games over the Texans.

If the playoffs started today, the Jaguars would host the Bengals in the wild card round.

Last 5:WLWWWThey have won 3 in a row.

Our strength rating puts them 1st of 32, 7.0 points better than an average team. The Jaguars made the playoffs in 2 of the last 5 seasons (2022, 2025).

See every seed in the AFC playoff picture and today's playoff bracket.

AFC South standings

TeamRecordIn divisionPlayoffsWin division
JAX Jaguars7-22-19998
HOU Texans3-62-1122
IND Colts3-71-21<1
TEN Titans1-81-2<1<1

Jaguars playoff odds by seed

How often each seed came up, out of 100 seasons.

  1. 1st seed bye week18
  2. 2nd seed28
  3. 3rd seed26
  4. 4th seed last home game26
  5. 5th seed<1
  6. 6th seed1
  7. 7th seed1
  8. Miss the playoffs1

How far the Jaguars can go

The Jaguars playoff odds for each round, out of 100. We play the bracket in every season, up to the Super Bowl.

  1. Make the playoffs99in 100
  2. Reach the divisional round74in 100
  3. Reach the conference title game44in 100
  4. Reach the Super Bowl25in 100
  5. Win the Super Bowl14in 100

Jaguars remaining schedule

The Jaguars have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 32-38-2, the 29th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

WeekDateOpponentTheir recordChance to win
11Sun, Nov 22at Giants5-3-1 69 in 100
12Sun, Nov 29vs Titans1-8 86 in 100
13Sun, Dec 6at Bears7-2 55 in 100
14Mon, Dec 14vs Steelers6-2 69 in 100
15Sun, Dec 20at Texans3-6 63 in 100
16Sun, Dec 27at Cowboys4-5 66 in 100
17Sun, Jan 3vs Commanders3-5-1 80 in 100
18Sun, Jan 10at Colts3-7 75 in 100

Every game this week, with kickoff times in your own time zone, is on the NFL games this week page. The Jaguars bye is in week 7. Every team's week off is in our guide to NFL bye weeks 2026.

Jaguars results and how their playoff chances moved

Each row shows the playoff chance once that week was complete.

WeekDateOpponentResultPlayoff chance after
1Sun, Sep 13vs BrownsWon 34 to 1068 in 100
2Sun, Sep 20at BroncosLost 13 to 2061 in 100 -7
3Sun, Sep 27vs PatriotsWon 35 to 681 in 100 +20
4Sun, Oct 4at BengalsWon 22 to 1788 in 100 +7
5Sun, Oct 11vs EaglesWon 19 to 1791 in 100 +3
6Sun, Oct 18vs TexansLost 31 to 3484 in 100 -7
8Sun, Nov 1vs ColtsWon 42 to 794 in 100 +7
9Thu, Nov 5at RavensWon 33 to 1098 in 100 +4
10Sun, Nov 15at TitansWon 40 to 23week not finished

Tiebreakers in play for the Jaguars

These ties are being broken in today's standings.

  • BehindKC The Chiefs are ahead of JAX the Jaguars on conference record.

The steps follow the league's tiebreaking procedures. See every step or read our guide to NFL tiebreakers.

How we got these numbers

Three steps, run again after every game window.

  1. Rate every teamWe rate every team from the points in its games so far.
  2. Play out the seasonEvery game left is played out 50,000 times.
  3. Seed every seasonEach of those seasons is seeded with the real NFL tiebreakers.

The result

JAX 99 in 100

The Jaguars made the playoffs in 99 of every 100 seasons.

Clinched and eliminated are proved, not played out. They and the magic numbers are worked out another way. They are proved from every result still possible, so they are certain, not likely. How the proof works

✓Checked Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET. Our seeding matches the official standings for 32 of 32 teams. How it works

Jaguars playoff questions

What are the Jaguars playoff chances right now?

The Jaguars make the playoffs in 99 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 99% chance. At 7-2 they hold the AFC 3rd seed today. That is up 1 from last week. Updated Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET.

Can the Jaguars still make the playoffs?

Yes. The Jaguars make the playoffs 99 times in 100 in our runs. They are 2.5 games ahead of the Patriots, the first team outside the playoff places.

What do the Jaguars need to make the playoffs?

In our runs a final record of 9-8 got in 78 times in 100. If they win every game left, they are in.

Are the Jaguars eliminated from the playoffs?

No. The Jaguars are not eliminated. The Jaguars cannot be knocked out by their own results yet. Even if they lose all 8 games they have left, there is still a way in. They are 2.5 games ahead of the Patriots, the first team outside the playoff places.

What is the Jaguars magic number?

The Jaguars magic number is 5. 5 more wins put the Jaguars in the playoffs, whatever any other team does. 4 more wins could be enough if a tiebreaker goes their way. 5 more wins give the Jaguars the AFC South title, whatever any other team does. 4 more wins could be enough if a tiebreaker goes their way.

What are the Jaguars playoff scenarios for week 10?

The Jaguars do not play in week 10. Their next game is at the Giants on Sun, Nov 22.

Can the Jaguars clinch a playoff spot this week?

No. The Jaguars cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Jaguars be eliminated this week?

No. The Jaguars cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Who should Jaguars fans root for this week?

No other game in week 10 moves the Jaguars by more than 1 in 100.

Who do the Jaguars play next?

Next they play at the Giants on Sun, Nov 22. A win lifts the chance to more than 99 in 100. A loss drops it to 98.

Can the Jaguars still win the AFC South?

The Jaguars win the AFC South in 98 of 100. They lead the AFC South by 4 games over the Texans.

What are the Jaguars Super Bowl chances?

The Jaguars reach the Super Bowl in 25 of every 100 seasons we play out and win it in 14.

How hard is the Jaguars remaining schedule?

The Jaguars have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 32-38-2, the 29th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

More playoff chances