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Updated · Week 10 · 50,000 seasons played out

Atlanta Falcons playoff chances

The Falcons make the playoffs in 8 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is an 8% chance as of week 10.

ATL Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons make the playoffs in 8 of every 100 seasons we play out. At 3-7 they sit 15th in the NFC, 8 spots outside the playoff places.

  • 3-7Record
  • 15thin the NFC today
  • 8in 100 win the NFC South
  • -8since last week

Next game at the Vikings (week 12)

PLAYOFFS102030405040302010last week8in 100

The ball shows how far the Falcons are from the playoffs. The end zone is 100 in 100.

100 seasons, one dot each

  • 8 win the NFC South
  • 0 get in as a wild card
  • 92 miss the playoffs

Chance after each weekDown 28 since week 1

100500Wk 1Wk 4Wk 7Now8

What the Falcons need to make the playoffs

Magic numberNeeds helpThe Falcons cannot lock up a playoff spot on their own. Even if they win all 7 games they have left, other results could keep them out.
NFC South magic numberNeeds helpThe Falcons cannot win the NFC South on their own. Even if they win all 7 games they have left, they need another team to slip.
Elimination number66 more losses knock the Falcons out, whatever else happens. 5 more losses could be enough if tiebreakers go against them.

These three are proved, not played out: we check every way the season can still finish. How the proof works

If they win every game left, they get in 99 times in 100. Each row is a final record and how often it was enough.

  1. 10-799+ in 100Happens fewer than 1 time in 100
  2. 9-879 in 100Happens 3 times in 100
  3. 8-933 in 100Happens 10 times in 100
  4. 7-106 in 100Happens 20 times in 100
  5. 6-11 or worse<1 in 100Most likely finish. Happens 65 times in 100

Falcons playoff scenarios for week 10

Next game, week 12 at Vikings Sun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET

If they win15
Today8
If they lose5

It matters. Winning instead of losing is worth 10 in 100. The Falcons win this game 27 times in 100.

The Falcons do not play in week 10.

Falcons clinching scenarios for week 10

No. The Falcons cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Falcons be eliminated in week 10?

No. The Falcons cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Every answer here is proved from the results still possible, with the league's tiebreakers through conference record. Clinching scenarios for every team

Who Falcons fans should root for in week 10

No other game this week moves the Falcons by more than 1 in 100.

Try your own Falcons playoff scenarios

Tap a result. We replay the season 6,000 times on your device and move the ball.

Falcons games left

  1. Wk 12at VikingsSun, Nov 29 · wins 27 in 100
  2. Wk 13vs LionsSun, Dec 6 · wins 37 in 100
  3. Wk 14at BrownsSun, Dec 13 · wins 44 in 100
  4. Wk 15at CommandersSun, Dec 20 · wins 45 in 100
  5. Wk 16vs BuccaneersSun, Dec 27 · wins 42 in 100
  6. Wk 17vs SaintsSun, Jan 3 · wins 56 in 100
  7. Wk 18at PanthersSun, Jan 10 · wins 41 in 100

Other games in week 10

  1. Rams at CardinalsSun, Nov 15
  2. Seahawks at RaidersSun, Nov 15
  3. 49ers at CowboysSun, Nov 15
  4. Steelers at BengalsSun, Nov 15
  5. Chargers at RavensMon, Nov 16

Falcons playoff picture today

The Falcons are 3-7 and sit 15th in the NFC. They are 3 games behind the Packers, who hold the last playoff place.

They are 4th in the NFC South, 1.5 games behind the Panthers.

If the playoffs started today, the Falcons would miss out.

Last 5:LWLLLThey have lost 3 in a row.

Our strength rating puts them 22nd of 32, 2.4 points worse than an average team. The Falcons missed the playoffs in each of the last 5 seasons.

See every seed in the NFC playoff picture and today's playoff bracket.

NFC South standings

TeamRecordIn divisionPlayoffsWin division
CAR Panthers4-52-13635
TB Buccaneers3-62-04948
NO Saints3-60-2109
ATL Falcons3-71-288

Falcons playoff odds by seed

How often each seed came up, out of 100 seasons.

  1. 1st seed bye week<1
  2. 2nd seed<1
  3. 3rd seed2
  4. 4th seed last home game6
  5. 5th seed<1
  6. 6th seed<1
  7. 7th seed<1
  8. Miss the playoffs92

How far the Falcons can go

The Falcons playoff odds for each round, out of 100. We play the bracket in every season, up to the Super Bowl.

  1. Make the playoffs8in 100
  2. Reach the divisional round4in 100
  3. Reach the conference title game1in 100
  4. Reach the Super Bowl<1in 100
  5. Win the Super Bowl<1in 100

Falcons remaining schedule

The Falcons have 7 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 33-30-1, the 8th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

WeekDateOpponentTheir recordChance to win
12Sun, Nov 29at Vikings7-2 27 in 100
13Sun, Dec 6vs Lions7-2 37 in 100
14Sun, Dec 13at Browns6-4 44 in 100
15Sun, Dec 20at Commanders3-5-1 45 in 100
16Sun, Dec 27vs Buccaneers3-6 42 in 100
17Sun, Jan 3vs Saints3-6 56 in 100
18Sun, Jan 10at Panthers4-5 41 in 100

Every game this week, with kickoff times in your own time zone, is on the NFL games this week page. The Falcons bye is in week 11. Every team's week off is in our guide to NFL bye weeks 2026.

Falcons results and how their playoff chances moved

Each row shows the playoff chance once that week was complete.

WeekDateOpponentResultPlayoff chance after
1Sun, Sep 13at SteelersLost 13 to 2036 in 100
2Sun, Sep 20vs PanthersLost 3 to 3410 in 100 -26
3Thu, Sep 24at PackersWon 35 to 1425 in 100 +15
4Mon, Oct 5at SaintsWon 45 to 2449 in 100 +24
5Sun, Oct 11vs RavensLost 23 to 3040 in 100 -9
6Sun, Oct 18vs BearsLost 23 to 3129 in 100 -11
7Sun, Oct 25vs 49ersWon 29 to 2039 in 100 +10
8Sun, Nov 1at BuccaneersLost 0 to 1625 in 100 -14
9Sun, Nov 8vs BengalsLost 17 to 3416 in 100 -9
10Sun, Nov 15vs ChiefsLost 13 to 35week not finished

If the Falcons miss the playoffs: draft position

  • 92in 100 miss the playoffs
  • No. 9average first round pick
  • 18in 100 get a top 5 pick
  • <1in 100 get the first pick

If the Falcons miss the playoffs, their own first round pick lands at about No. 9 on average. They end up with a top 5 pick in 18 of 100 seasons.

Picks 1 to 18 go to the teams that miss the playoffs, worst record first. Trades are not included.

How we got these numbers

Three steps, run again after every game window.

  1. Rate every teamWe rate every team from the points in its games so far.
  2. Play out the seasonEvery game left is played out 50,000 times.
  3. Seed every seasonEach of those seasons is seeded with the real NFL tiebreakers.

The result

ATL 8 in 100

The Falcons made the playoffs in 8 of every 100 seasons.

Clinched and eliminated are proved, not played out. They and the magic numbers are worked out another way. They are proved from every result still possible, so they are certain, not likely. How the proof works

✓Checked Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET. Our seeding matches the official standings for 32 of 32 teams. How it works

Falcons playoff questions

What are the Falcons playoff chances right now?

The Falcons make the playoffs in 8 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is an 8% chance. At 3-7 they sit 15th in the NFC, 8 spots outside the playoff places. That is down 8 from last week. Updated Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET.

Can the Falcons still make the playoffs?

Yes, but they need things to go their way. The Falcons make the playoffs 8 times in 100 in our runs. They are 3 games behind the Packers, who hold the last playoff place. If they win every game left, they get in 99 times in 100.

What do the Falcons need to make the playoffs?

In our runs a final record of 9-8 got in 79 times in 100, 8-9 got in 33 times in 100 and 7-10 got in 6 times in 100. If they win every game left, they get in 99 times in 100.

Are the Falcons eliminated from the playoffs?

No. The Falcons are not eliminated. 6 more losses knock the Falcons out, whatever else happens. 5 more losses could be enough if tiebreakers go against them. They are 3 games behind the Packers, who hold the last playoff place.

What is the Falcons magic number?

The Falcons do not have a magic number yet. The Falcons cannot lock up a playoff spot on their own. Even if they win all 7 games they have left, other results could keep them out. The Falcons cannot win the NFC South on their own. Even if they win all 7 games they have left, they need another team to slip.

What are the Falcons playoff scenarios for week 10?

The Falcons do not play in week 10. Their next game is at the Vikings on Sun, Nov 29.

Can the Falcons clinch a playoff spot this week?

No. The Falcons cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Falcons be eliminated this week?

No. The Falcons cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Who should Falcons fans root for this week?

No other game in week 10 moves the Falcons by more than 1 in 100.

Who do the Falcons play next?

Next they play at the Vikings on Sun, Nov 29. A win lifts the chance to 15 in 100. A loss drops it to 5.

Can the Falcons still win the NFC South?

The Falcons win the NFC South in 8 of 100. They are 4th in the NFC South, 1.5 games behind the Panthers.

What are the Falcons Super Bowl chances?

The Falcons reach the Super Bowl in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons we play out and win it in fewer than 1.

How hard is the Falcons remaining schedule?

The Falcons have 7 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 33-30-1, the 8th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

More playoff chances