Home › Teams › Chiefs playoff chances

Updated · Week 10 · 50,000 seasons played out

Kansas City Chiefs playoff chances

The Chiefs make the playoffs in 96 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 96% chance as of week 10.

KC Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs make the playoffs in 96 of every 100 seasons we play out. At 7-2 they hold the AFC 2nd seed today.

  • 7-2Record
  • 2ndin the AFC today
  • 57in 100 win the AFC West
  • +5since last week

Next game vs the Cardinals (week 11)

PLAYOFFS102030405040302010last week96in 100

The ball shows how far the Chiefs are from the playoffs. The end zone is 100 in 100.

100 seasons, one dot each

  • 57 win the AFC West
  • 39 get in as a wild card
  • 4 miss the playoffs

Chance after each weekUp 30 since week 1

100500Wk 1Wk 4Wk 7Now96

What the Chiefs need to make the playoffs

Magic number66 more wins put the Chiefs in the playoffs, whatever any other team does. 5 more wins could be enough if a tiebreaker goes their way.
AFC West magic numberTiebreakThe Chiefs cannot win the AFC West on their own. Winning all 8 games they have left would leave it to a tiebreaker.
Elimination numberNot yetThe Chiefs cannot be knocked out by their own results yet. Even if they lose all 8 games they have left, there is still a way in.

These three are proved, not played out: we check every way the season can still finish. How the proof works

If they win every game left, they are in. Each row is a final record and how often it was enough.

  1. 11-6 or better99+ in 100Most likely finish. Happens 82 times in 100
  2. 10-796 in 100Happens 12 times in 100
  3. 9-861 in 100Happens 5 times in 100
  4. 8-912 in 100Happens 1 time in 100

Chiefs playoff scenarios for week 10

Next game, week 11 vs Cardinals Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET

If they win98
Today96
If they lose91

It matters. Winning instead of losing is worth 7 in 100. The Chiefs win this game 80 times in 100.

The Chiefs do not play in week 10.

Chiefs clinching scenarios for week 10

No. The Chiefs cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Chiefs be eliminated in week 10?

No. The Chiefs cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Every answer here is proved from the results still possible, with the league's tiebreakers through conference record. Clinching scenarios for every team

Who Chiefs fans should root for in week 10

No other game this week moves the Chiefs by more than 1 in 100.

Try your own Chiefs playoff scenarios

Tap a result. We replay the season 6,000 times on your device and move the ball.

Chiefs games left

  1. Wk 11vs CardinalsSun, Nov 22 · wins 80 in 100
  2. Wk 12at BillsThu, Nov 26 · wins 41 in 100
  3. Wk 13at RamsThu, Dec 3 · wins 54 in 100
  4. Wk 14at BengalsSun, Dec 13 · wins 45 in 100
  5. Wk 15vs PatriotsMon, Dec 21 · wins 69 in 100
  6. Wk 16vs 49ersSun, Dec 27 · wins 55 in 100
  7. Wk 17at ChargersSun, Jan 3 · wins 77 in 100
  8. Wk 18vs RaidersSun, Jan 10 · wins 73 in 100

Other games in week 10

  1. Rams at CardinalsSun, Nov 15
  2. Seahawks at RaidersSun, Nov 15
  3. 49ers at CowboysSun, Nov 15
  4. Steelers at BengalsSun, Nov 15
  5. Chargers at RavensMon, Nov 16

Chiefs playoff picture today

The Chiefs are 7-2 and hold the AFC 2nd seed. They are 2.5 games ahead of the Patriots, the first team outside the playoff places.

They lead the AFC West on a tiebreaker over the Broncos.

If the playoffs started today, the Chiefs would host the Browns in the wild card round.

Last 5:WLLWWThey have won 2 in a row.

Our strength rating puts them 5th of 32, 4.8 points better than an average team. The Chiefs made the playoffs in 4 of the last 5 seasons (2021, 2022, 2023, 2024).

See every seed in the AFC playoff picture and today's playoff bracket.

AFC West standings

TeamRecordIn divisionPlayoffsWin division
KC Chiefs7-23-19657
DEN Broncos7-22-19241
LV Raiders4-51-1202
LAC Chargers0-80-3<1<1

Chiefs playoff odds by seed

How often each seed came up, out of 100 seasons.

  1. 1st seed bye week14
  2. 2nd seed14
  3. 3rd seed15
  4. 4th seed last home game14
  5. 5th seed24
  6. 6th seed11
  7. 7th seed5
  8. Miss the playoffs4

How far the Chiefs can go

The Chiefs playoff odds for each round, out of 100. We play the bracket in every season, up to the Super Bowl.

  1. Make the playoffs96in 100
  2. Reach the divisional round59in 100
  3. Reach the conference title game30in 100
  4. Reach the Super Bowl15in 100
  5. Win the Super Bowl8in 100

Chiefs remaining schedule

The Chiefs have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 38-32, the 5th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

WeekDateOpponentTheir recordChance to win
11Sun, Nov 22vs Cardinals3-6 80 in 100
12Thu, Nov 26at Bills8-1 41 in 100
13Thu, Dec 3at Rams5-4 54 in 100
14Sun, Dec 13at Bengals6-2 45 in 100
15Mon, Dec 21vs Patriots5-5 69 in 100
16Sun, Dec 27vs 49ers7-1 55 in 100
17Sun, Jan 3at Chargers0-8 77 in 100
18Sun, Jan 10vs Raiders4-5 73 in 100

Every game this week, with kickoff times in your own time zone, is on the NFL games this week page. The Chiefs bye is in week 5. Every team's week off is in our guide to NFL bye weeks 2026.

Chiefs results and how their playoff chances moved

Each row shows the playoff chance once that week was complete.

WeekDateOpponentResultPlayoff chance after
1Mon, Sep 14vs BroncosWon 31 to 1066 in 100
2Sun, Sep 20vs ColtsWon 33 to 3070 in 100 +4
3Sun, Sep 27at DolphinsWon 24 to 1080 in 100 +10
4Sun, Oct 4at RaidersWon 30 to 2790 in 100 +10
6Sun, Oct 18vs ChargersWon 22 to 692 in 100 +5
7Sun, Oct 25at SeahawksLost 3 to 2087 in 100 -5
8Sun, Nov 1at BroncosLost 24 to 2878 in 100 -9
9Sun, Nov 8vs JetsWon 35 to 1291 in 100 +13
10Sun, Nov 15at FalconsWon 35 to 13week not finished

Tiebreakers in play for the Chiefs

These ties are being broken in today's standings.

  • AheadKC The Chiefs are ahead of DEN the Broncos on division record.
  • AheadKC The Chiefs are ahead of JAX the Jaguars on conference record.

The steps follow the league's tiebreaking procedures. See every step or read our guide to NFL tiebreakers.

How we got these numbers

Three steps, run again after every game window.

  1. Rate every teamWe rate every team from the points in its games so far.
  2. Play out the seasonEvery game left is played out 50,000 times.
  3. Seed every seasonEach of those seasons is seeded with the real NFL tiebreakers.

The result

KC 96 in 100

The Chiefs made the playoffs in 96 of every 100 seasons.

Clinched and eliminated are proved, not played out. They and the magic numbers are worked out another way. They are proved from every result still possible, so they are certain, not likely. How the proof works

✓Checked Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET. Our seeding matches the official standings for 32 of 32 teams. How it works

Chiefs playoff questions

What are the Chiefs playoff chances right now?

The Chiefs make the playoffs in 96 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 96% chance. At 7-2 they hold the AFC 2nd seed today. That is up 5 from last week. Updated Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET.

Can the Chiefs still make the playoffs?

Yes. The Chiefs make the playoffs 96 times in 100 in our runs. They are 2.5 games ahead of the Patriots, the first team outside the playoff places.

What do the Chiefs need to make the playoffs?

In our runs a final record of 10-7 got in 96 times in 100, 9-8 got in 61 times in 100 and 8-9 got in 12 times in 100. If they win every game left, they are in.

Are the Chiefs eliminated from the playoffs?

No. The Chiefs are not eliminated. The Chiefs cannot be knocked out by their own results yet. Even if they lose all 8 games they have left, there is still a way in. They are 2.5 games ahead of the Patriots, the first team outside the playoff places.

What is the Chiefs magic number?

The Chiefs magic number is 6. 6 more wins put the Chiefs in the playoffs, whatever any other team does. 5 more wins could be enough if a tiebreaker goes their way. The Chiefs cannot win the AFC West on their own. Winning all 8 games they have left would leave it to a tiebreaker.

What are the Chiefs playoff scenarios for week 10?

The Chiefs do not play in week 10. Their next game is vs the Cardinals on Sun, Nov 22.

Can the Chiefs clinch a playoff spot this week?

No. The Chiefs cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Chiefs be eliminated this week?

No. The Chiefs cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Who should Chiefs fans root for this week?

No other game in week 10 moves the Chiefs by more than 1 in 100.

Who do the Chiefs play next?

Next they play vs the Cardinals on Sun, Nov 22. A win lifts the chance to 98 in 100. A loss drops it to 91.

Can the Chiefs still win the AFC West?

The Chiefs win the AFC West in 57 of 100. They lead the AFC West on a tiebreaker over the Broncos.

What are the Chiefs Super Bowl chances?

The Chiefs reach the Super Bowl in 15 of every 100 seasons we play out and win it in 8.

How hard is the Chiefs remaining schedule?

The Chiefs have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 38-32, the 5th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

More playoff chances