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Updated · Week 10 · 50,000 seasons played out

Buffalo Bills playoff chances

The Bills make the playoffs in more than 99 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a better than 99% chance as of week 10.

BUF Buffalo Bills

The Bills make the playoffs in more than 99 of every 100 seasons we play out. At 8-1 they hold the AFC 1st seed today.

  • 8-1Record
  • 1stin the AFC today
  • 97in 100 win the AFC East
  • +2since last week

Next game vs the Dolphins (week 11)

PLAYOFFS102030405040302010last week99+in 100

The ball shows how far the Bills are from the playoffs. The end zone is 100 in 100.

100 seasons, one dot each

  • 97 win the AFC East
  • 3 get in as a wild card
  • 0 miss the playoffs

Chance after each weekUp 46 since week 1

100500Wk 1Wk 4Wk 7Now99+

What the Bills need to make the playoffs

Magic number55 more wins put the Bills in the playoffs, whatever any other team does. 4 more wins could be enough if a tiebreaker goes their way.
AFC East magic number55 more wins give the Bills the AFC East title, whatever any other team does. 4 more wins could be enough if a tiebreaker goes their way.
Elimination numberNot yetThe Bills cannot be knocked out by their own results yet. Even if they lose all 8 games they have left, there is still a way in.

These three are proved, not played out: we check every way the season can still finish. How the proof works

If they win every game left, they are in. Each row is a final record and how often it was enough.

  1. 11-6 or better99+ in 100Most likely finish. Happens 96 times in 100
  2. 10-796 in 100Happens 3 times in 100
  3. 9-861 in 100Happens 1 time in 100

Bills playoff scenarios for week 10

Next game, week 11 vs Dolphins Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET

If they win99+
Today99+
If they lose98

A small swing. Winning instead of losing is worth 2 in 100. The Bills win this game 82 times in 100.

The Bills do not play in week 10.

Bills clinching scenarios for week 10

No. The Bills cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Bills be eliminated in week 10?

No. The Bills cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Every answer here is proved from the results still possible, with the league's tiebreakers through conference record. Clinching scenarios for every team

Who Bills fans should root for in week 10

No other game this week moves the Bills by more than 1 in 100.

Try your own Bills playoff scenarios

Tap a result. We replay the season 6,000 times on your device and move the ball.

Bills games left

  1. Wk 11vs DolphinsSun, Nov 22 · wins 82 in 100
  2. Wk 12vs ChiefsThu, Nov 26 · wins 59 in 100
  3. Wk 13at PatriotsSun, Dec 6 · wins 63 in 100
  4. Wk 14at PackersSun, Dec 13 · wins 60 in 100
  5. Wk 15vs BearsSat, Dec 19 · wins 62 in 100
  6. Wk 16at BroncosFri, Dec 25 · wins 57 in 100
  7. Wk 17at DolphinsSun, Jan 3 · wins 74 in 100
  8. Wk 18vs JetsSun, Jan 10 · wins 80 in 100

Other games in week 10

  1. Rams at CardinalsSun, Nov 15
  2. Seahawks at RaidersSun, Nov 15
  3. 49ers at CowboysSun, Nov 15
  4. Steelers at BengalsSun, Nov 15
  5. Chargers at RavensMon, Nov 16

Bills playoff picture today

The Bills are 8-1 and hold the AFC 1st seed. They are 3.5 games ahead of the Patriots, the first team outside the playoff places.

They lead the AFC East by 3.5 games over the Patriots.

If the playoffs started today, the Bills would rest in round one and play every AFC playoff game at home.

Last 5:WWWWWThey have won 5 in a row.

Our strength rating puts them 2nd of 32, 5.9 points better than an average team. The Bills made the playoffs in 5 of the last 5 seasons (2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025).

See every seed in the AFC playoff picture and today's playoff bracket.

AFC East standings

TeamRecordIn divisionPlayoffsWin division
BUF Bills8-11-199+97
NE Patriots5-53-0413
NYJ Jets2-80-3<1<1
MIA Dolphins1-81-1<1<1

Bills playoff odds by seed

How often each seed came up, out of 100 seasons.

  1. 1st seed bye week42
  2. 2nd seed22
  3. 3rd seed18
  4. 4th seed last home game15
  5. 5th seed1
  6. 6th seed1
  7. 7th seed1
  8. Miss the playoffs<1

How far the Bills can go

The Bills playoff odds for each round, out of 100. We play the bracket in every season, up to the Super Bowl.

  1. Make the playoffs99+in 100
  2. Reach the divisional round78in 100
  3. Reach the conference title game46in 100
  4. Reach the Super Bowl25in 100
  5. Win the Super Bowl14in 100

Bills remaining schedule

The Bills have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 36-39, the 24th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

WeekDateOpponentTheir recordChance to win
11Sun, Nov 22vs Dolphins1-8 82 in 100
12Thu, Nov 26vs Chiefs7-2 59 in 100
13Sun, Dec 6at Patriots5-5 63 in 100
14Sun, Dec 13at Packers6-4 60 in 100
15Sat, Dec 19vs Bears7-2 62 in 100
16Fri, Dec 25at Broncos7-2 57 in 100
17Sun, Jan 3at Dolphins1-8 74 in 100
18Sun, Jan 10vs Jets2-8 80 in 100

Every game this week, with kickoff times in your own time zone, is on the NFL games this week page. The Bills bye is in week 7. Every team's week off is in our guide to NFL bye weeks 2026.

Bills results and how their playoff chances moved

Each row shows the playoff chance once that week was complete.

WeekDateOpponentResultPlayoff chance after
1Sun, Sep 13at TexansWon 36 to 3154 in 100
2Thu, Sep 17vs LionsWon 41 to 3163 in 100 +9
3Sun, Sep 27vs ChargersWon 24 to 1673 in 100 +10
4Sun, Oct 4vs PatriotsLost 26 to 2962 in 100 -11
5Mon, Oct 12at RamsWon 37 to 3471 in 100 +9
6Sun, Oct 18at RaidersWon 33 to 3078 in 100 +7
8Sun, Nov 1vs RavensWon 36 to 1092 in 100 +13
9Mon, Nov 9at VikingsWon 23 to 698 in 100 +6
10Sun, Nov 15at JetsWon 31 to 12week not finished

How we got these numbers

Three steps, run again after every game window.

  1. Rate every teamWe rate every team from the points in its games so far.
  2. Play out the seasonEvery game left is played out 50,000 times.
  3. Seed every seasonEach of those seasons is seeded with the real NFL tiebreakers.

The result

BUF 99+ in 100

The Bills made the playoffs in more than 99 of every 100 seasons.

Clinched and eliminated are proved, not played out. They and the magic numbers are worked out another way. They are proved from every result still possible, so they are certain, not likely. How the proof works

✓Checked Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET. Our seeding matches the official standings for 32 of 32 teams. How it works

Bills playoff questions

What are the Bills playoff chances right now?

The Bills make the playoffs in more than 99 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a better than 99% chance. At 8-1 they hold the AFC 1st seed today. That is up 2 from last week. Updated Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET.

Can the Bills still make the playoffs?

Yes. The Bills make the playoffs more than 99 times in 100 in our runs. They are 3.5 games ahead of the Patriots, the first team outside the playoff places.

What do the Bills need to make the playoffs?

In our runs a final record of 10-7 got in 96 times in 100 and 9-8 got in 61 times in 100. If they win every game left, they are in.

Are the Bills eliminated from the playoffs?

No. The Bills are not eliminated. The Bills cannot be knocked out by their own results yet. Even if they lose all 8 games they have left, there is still a way in. They are 3.5 games ahead of the Patriots, the first team outside the playoff places.

What is the Bills magic number?

The Bills magic number is 5. 5 more wins put the Bills in the playoffs, whatever any other team does. 4 more wins could be enough if a tiebreaker goes their way. 5 more wins give the Bills the AFC East title, whatever any other team does. 4 more wins could be enough if a tiebreaker goes their way.

What are the Bills playoff scenarios for week 10?

The Bills do not play in week 10. Their next game is vs the Dolphins on Sun, Nov 22.

Can the Bills clinch a playoff spot this week?

No. The Bills cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Bills be eliminated this week?

No. The Bills cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Who should Bills fans root for this week?

No other game in week 10 moves the Bills by more than 1 in 100.

Who do the Bills play next?

Next they play vs the Dolphins on Sun, Nov 22. A win lifts the chance to more than 99 in 100. A loss drops it to 98.

Can the Bills still win the AFC East?

The Bills win the AFC East in 97 of 100. They lead the AFC East by 3.5 games over the Patriots.

What are the Bills Super Bowl chances?

The Bills reach the Super Bowl in 25 of every 100 seasons we play out and win it in 14.

How hard is the Bills remaining schedule?

The Bills have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 36-39, the 24th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

More playoff chances