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Updated · Week 10 · 50,000 seasons played out

Houston Texans playoff chances

The Texans make the playoffs in 12 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 12% chance as of week 10.

HOU Houston Texans

The Texans make the playoffs in 12 of every 100 seasons we play out. At 3-6 they sit 11th in the AFC, 4 spots outside the playoff places.

  • 3-6Record
  • 11thin the AFC today
  • 2in 100 win the AFC South
  • -13since last week

Next game vs the Colts (week 11)

PLAYOFFS102030405040302010last week12in 100

The ball shows how far the Texans are from the playoffs. The end zone is 100 in 100.

100 seasons, one dot each

  • 2 win the AFC South
  • 10 get in as a wild card
  • 88 miss the playoffs

Chance after each weekDown 23 since week 1

100500Wk 1Wk 4Wk 7Now12

What the Texans need to make the playoffs

Magic numberNeeds helpThe Texans cannot lock up a playoff spot on their own. Even if they win all 8 games they have left, other results could keep them out.
AFC South magic numberNeeds helpThe Texans cannot win the AFC South on their own. Even if they win all 8 games they have left, they need another team to slip.
Elimination number66 more losses knock the Texans out, whatever else happens. 5 more losses could be enough if tiebreakers go against them.

These three are proved, not played out: we check every way the season can still finish. How the proof works

If they win every game left, they get in 99 times in 100. Each row is a final record and how often it was enough.

  1. 11-699 in 100Happens 2 times in 100
  2. 10-777 in 100Happens 7 times in 100
  3. 9-826 in 100Happens 17 times in 100
  4. 8-93 in 100Most likely finish. Happens 24 times in 100
  5. 7-10 or worse<1 in 100Happens 50 times in 100

Texans playoff scenarios for week 10

Next game, week 11 vs Colts Thu, Nov 19, 8:15 PM ET

If they win17
Today12
If they lose3

A big game. Winning instead of losing is worth 13 in 100. The Texans win this game 67 times in 100.

The Texans do not play in week 10.

Best and worst case this week

Best week12Bengals beat Steelers
Worst week11Steelers beat Bengals

Texans clinching scenarios for week 10

No. The Texans cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Texans be eliminated in week 10?

No. The Texans cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Every answer here is proved from the results still possible, with the league's tiebreakers through conference record. Clinching scenarios for every team

Who Texans fans should root for in week 10

  1. CINBengalsover the Steelers Sun, Nov 15+2

The number is how much a result helps, in chances out of 100. Swings under 1.5 are left out because they are too small to trust.

Try your own Texans playoff scenarios

Tap a result. We replay the season 6,000 times on your device and move the ball.

Texans games left

  1. Wk 11vs ColtsThu, Nov 19 · wins 67 in 100
  2. Wk 12vs RavensSun, Nov 29 · wins 67 in 100
  3. Wk 13at SteelersSun, Dec 6 · wins 41 in 100
  4. Wk 14at CommandersSun, Dec 13 · wins 55 in 100
  5. Wk 15vs JaguarsSun, Dec 20 · wins 37 in 100
  6. Wk 16at EaglesThu, Dec 24 · wins 64 in 100
  7. Wk 17at PackersMon, Jan 4 · wins 45 in 100
  8. Wk 18vs TitansSun, Jan 10 · wins 74 in 100

Other games in week 10

  1. Rams at CardinalsSun, Nov 15
  2. Seahawks at RaidersSun, Nov 15
  3. 49ers at CowboysSun, Nov 15
  4. Steelers at BengalsSun, Nov 15
  5. Chargers at RavensMon, Nov 16

Texans playoff picture today

The Texans are 3-6 and sit 11th in the AFC. They are 2.5 games behind the Browns, who hold the last playoff place.

They are 2nd in the AFC South, 4 games behind the Jaguars.

If the playoffs started today, the Texans would miss out.

Last 5:WWLWLThey lost their last game.

Our strength rating puts them 15th of 32, 0.9 points better than an average team. The Texans made the playoffs in 3 of the last 5 seasons (2023, 2024, 2025).

See every seed in the AFC playoff picture and today's playoff bracket.

AFC South standings

TeamRecordIn divisionPlayoffsWin division
JAX Jaguars7-22-19998
HOU Texans3-62-1122
IND Colts3-71-21<1
TEN Titans1-81-2<1<1

Texans playoff odds by seed

How often each seed came up, out of 100 seasons.

  1. 1st seed bye week<1
  2. 2nd seed<1
  3. 3rd seed<1
  4. 4th seed last home game2
  5. 5th seed1
  6. 6th seed3
  7. 7th seed7
  8. Miss the playoffs88

How far the Texans can go

The Texans playoff odds for each round, out of 100. We play the bracket in every season, up to the Super Bowl.

  1. Make the playoffs12in 100
  2. Reach the divisional round5in 100
  3. Reach the conference title game2in 100
  4. Reach the Super Bowl1in 100
  5. Win the Super Bowl<1in 100

Texans remaining schedule

The Texans have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 32-40-1, the 30th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

WeekDateOpponentTheir recordChance to win
11Thu, Nov 19vs Colts3-7 67 in 100
12Sun, Nov 29vs Ravens4-5 67 in 100
13Sun, Dec 6at Steelers6-2 41 in 100
14Sun, Dec 13at Commanders3-5-1 55 in 100
15Sun, Dec 20vs Jaguars7-2 37 in 100
16Thu, Dec 24at Eagles2-7 64 in 100
17Mon, Jan 4at Packers6-4 45 in 100
18Sun, Jan 10vs Titans1-8 74 in 100

Every game this week, with kickoff times in your own time zone, is on the NFL games this week page. The Texans bye is in week 8. Every team's week off is in our guide to NFL bye weeks 2026.

Texans results and how their playoff chances moved

Each row shows the playoff chance once that week was complete.

WeekDateOpponentResultPlayoff chance after
1Sun, Sep 13vs BillsLost 31 to 3635 in 100
2Sun, Sep 20vs BengalsLost 6 to 2024 in 100 -11
3Sun, Sep 27at ColtsLost 17 to 1915 in 100 -9
4Sun, Oct 4vs CowboysLost 30 to 348 in 100 -7
5Sun, Oct 11at TitansWon 26 to 315 in 100 +7
6Sun, Oct 18vs JaguarsWon 34 to 3128 in 100 +13
7Sun, Oct 25vs GiantsLost 21 to 2717 in 100 -11
9Sun, Nov 8at ChargersWon 44 to 2225 in 100 +10
10Sun, Nov 15at BrownsLost 24 to 27week not finished

If the Texans miss the playoffs: draft position

  • 88in 100 miss the playoffs
  • No. 11average first round pick
  • 9in 100 get a top 5 pick
  • <1in 100 get the first pick

If the Texans miss the playoffs, their own first round pick lands at about No. 11 on average. They end up with a top 5 pick in 9 of 100 seasons.

Picks 1 to 18 go to the teams that miss the playoffs, worst record first. Trades are not included.

How we got these numbers

Three steps, run again after every game window.

  1. Rate every teamWe rate every team from the points in its games so far.
  2. Play out the seasonEvery game left is played out 50,000 times.
  3. Seed every seasonEach of those seasons is seeded with the real NFL tiebreakers.

The result

HOU 12 in 100

The Texans made the playoffs in 12 of every 100 seasons.

Clinched and eliminated are proved, not played out. They and the magic numbers are worked out another way. They are proved from every result still possible, so they are certain, not likely. How the proof works

✓Checked Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET. Our seeding matches the official standings for 32 of 32 teams. How it works

Texans playoff questions

What are the Texans playoff chances right now?

The Texans make the playoffs in 12 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 12% chance. At 3-6 they sit 11th in the AFC, 4 spots outside the playoff places. That is down 13 from last week. Updated Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET.

Can the Texans still make the playoffs?

Yes, but they need things to go their way. The Texans make the playoffs 12 times in 100 in our runs. They are 2.5 games behind the Browns, who hold the last playoff place. If they win every game left, they get in 99 times in 100.

What do the Texans need to make the playoffs?

In our runs a final record of 10-7 got in 77 times in 100, 9-8 got in 26 times in 100 and 8-9 got in 3 times in 100. If they win every game left, they get in 99 times in 100.

Are the Texans eliminated from the playoffs?

No. The Texans are not eliminated. 6 more losses knock the Texans out, whatever else happens. 5 more losses could be enough if tiebreakers go against them. They are 2.5 games behind the Browns, who hold the last playoff place.

What is the Texans magic number?

The Texans do not have a magic number yet. The Texans cannot lock up a playoff spot on their own. Even if they win all 8 games they have left, other results could keep them out. The Texans cannot win the AFC South on their own. Even if they win all 8 games they have left, they need another team to slip.

What are the Texans playoff scenarios for week 10?

The Texans do not play in week 10. Their next game is vs the Colts on Thu, Nov 19. With the other key results added, the best case this week is 12 in 100 and the worst case is 11.

Can the Texans clinch a playoff spot this week?

No. The Texans cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Texans be eliminated this week?

No. The Texans cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Who should Texans fans root for this week?

Besides their own game, the results that help the Texans most in week 10 are the Bengals over the Steelers.

Who do the Texans play next?

Next they play vs the Colts on Thu, Nov 19. A win lifts the chance to 17 in 100. A loss drops it to 3.

Can the Texans still win the AFC South?

The Texans win the AFC South in 2 of 100. They are 2nd in the AFC South, 4 games behind the Jaguars.

What are the Texans Super Bowl chances?

The Texans reach the Super Bowl in 1 of every 100 seasons we play out and win it in fewer than 1.

How hard is the Texans remaining schedule?

The Texans have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 32-40-1, the 30th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

More playoff chances