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Updated · Week 10 · 50,000 seasons played out

Detroit Lions playoff chances

The Lions make the playoffs in 89 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is an 89% chance as of week 10.

DET Detroit Lions

The Lions make the playoffs in 89 of every 100 seasons we play out. At 7-2 they hold the NFC 2nd seed today.

  • 7-2Record
  • 2ndin the NFC today
  • 34in 100 win the NFC North
  • +14since last week

Next game vs the Buccaneers (week 11)

PLAYOFFS102030405040302010last week89in 100

The ball shows how far the Lions are from the playoffs. The end zone is 100 in 100.

100 seasons, one dot each

  • 34 win the NFC North
  • 55 get in as a wild card
  • 11 miss the playoffs

Chance after each weekUp 45 since week 1

100500Wk 1Wk 4Wk 7Now89

What the Lions need to make the playoffs

Magic number66 more wins put the Lions in the playoffs, whatever any other team does.
NFC North magic number8If they win all 8 games they have left, the Lions win the NFC North whatever any other team does.
Elimination numberNot yetThe Lions cannot be knocked out by their own results yet. Even if they lose all 8 games they have left, there is still a way in.

These three are proved, not played out: we check every way the season can still finish. How the proof works

If they win every game left, they are in. Each row is a final record and how often it was enough.

  1. 12-5 or better99+ in 100Most likely finish. Happens 54 times in 100
  2. 11-698 in 100Happens 22 times in 100
  3. 10-776 in 100Happens 15 times in 100
  4. 9-823 in 100Happens 7 times in 100
  5. 8-91 in 100Happens 2 times in 100

Lions playoff scenarios for week 10

Next game, week 11 vs Buccaneers Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET

If they win94
Today89
If they lose81

A big game. Winning instead of losing is worth 14 in 100. The Lions win this game 60 times in 100.

The Lions do not play in week 10.

Best and worst case this week

Best week92Cardinals beat Rams, Raiders beat Seahawks
Worst week87Rams beat Cardinals, Seahawks beat Raiders

Lions clinching scenarios for week 10

No. The Lions cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Lions be eliminated in week 10?

No. The Lions cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Every answer here is proved from the results still possible, with the league's tiebreakers through conference record. Clinching scenarios for every team

Who Lions fans should root for in week 10

  1. ARICardinalsover the Rams Sun, Nov 15+2
  2. LVRaidersover the Seahawks Sun, Nov 15+2

The number is how much a result helps, in chances out of 100. Swings under 1.5 are left out because they are too small to trust.

Try your own Lions playoff scenarios

Tap a result. We replay the season 6,000 times on your device and move the ball.

Lions games left

  1. Wk 11vs BuccaneersSun, Nov 22 · wins 60 in 100
  2. Wk 12vs BearsThu, Nov 26 · wins 55 in 100
  3. Wk 13at FalconsSun, Dec 6 · wins 63 in 100
  4. Wk 14vs TitansSun, Dec 13 · wins 80 in 100
  5. Wk 15at VikingsSun, Dec 20 · wins 43 in 100
  6. Wk 16vs GiantsMon, Dec 28 · wins 69 in 100
  7. Wk 17at BearsSun, Jan 3 · wins 45 in 100
  8. Wk 18at PackersSun, Jan 10 · wins 53 in 100

Other games in week 10

  1. Rams at CardinalsSun, Nov 15
  2. Seahawks at RaidersSun, Nov 15
  3. 49ers at CowboysSun, Nov 15
  4. Steelers at BengalsSun, Nov 15
  5. Chargers at RavensMon, Nov 16

Lions playoff picture today

The Lions are 7-2 and hold the NFC 2nd seed. They are 2 games ahead of the Seahawks, the first team outside the playoff places.

They lead the NFC North on a tiebreaker over the Vikings.

If the playoffs started today, the Lions would host the Packers in the wild card round.

Last 5:WWWWWThey have won 5 in a row.

Our strength rating puts them 8th of 32, 3.7 points better than an average team. The Lions made the playoffs in 2 of the last 5 seasons (2023, 2024).

See every seed in the NFC playoff picture and today's playoff bracket.

NFC North standings

TeamRecordIn divisionPlayoffsWin division
DET Lions7-22-08934
MIN Vikings7-23-19543
CHI Bears7-20-28521
GB Packers6-41-3452

Lions playoff odds by seed

How often each seed came up, out of 100 seasons.

  1. 1st seed bye week20
  2. 2nd seed14
  3. 3rd seed<1
  4. 4th seed last home game<1
  5. 5th seed25
  6. 6th seed17
  7. 7th seed11
  8. Miss the playoffs11

How far the Lions can go

The Lions playoff odds for each round, out of 100. We play the bracket in every season, up to the Super Bowl.

  1. Make the playoffs89in 100
  2. Reach the divisional round56in 100
  3. Reach the conference title game29in 100
  4. Reach the Super Bowl15in 100
  5. Win the Super Bowl7in 100

Lions remaining schedule

The Lions have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 39-34-1, the 7th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

WeekDateOpponentTheir recordChance to win
11Sun, Nov 22vs Buccaneers3-6 60 in 100
12Thu, Nov 26vs Bears7-2 55 in 100
13Sun, Dec 6at Falcons3-7 63 in 100
14Sun, Dec 13vs Titans1-8 80 in 100
15Sun, Dec 20at Vikings7-2 43 in 100
16Mon, Dec 28vs Giants5-3-1 69 in 100
17Sun, Jan 3at Bears7-2 45 in 100
18Sun, Jan 10at Packers6-4 53 in 100

Every game this week, with kickoff times in your own time zone, is on the NFL games this week page. The Lions bye is in week 6. Every team's week off is in our guide to NFL bye weeks 2026.

Lions results and how their playoff chances moved

Each row shows the playoff chance once that week was complete.

WeekDateOpponentResultPlayoff chance after
1Sun, Sep 13vs SaintsWon 31 to 3044 in 100
2Thu, Sep 17at BillsLost 31 to 4138 in 100 -6
3Sun, Sep 27vs JetsWon 31 to 2445 in 100 +7
4Sun, Oct 4at PanthersLost 26 to 3231 in 100 -14
5Sun, Oct 11at CardinalsWon 45 to 2154 in 100 +23
7Sun, Oct 25vs PackersWon 20 to 1757 in 100 +2
8Sun, Nov 1vs VikingsWon 19 to 1570 in 100 +13
9Sun, Nov 8at DolphinsWon 19 to 975 in 100 +5
10Sun, Nov 15vs PatriotsWon 35 to 10week not finished

Tiebreakers in play for the Lions

These ties are being broken in today's standings.

  • AheadDET The Lions are ahead of CHI the Bears and MIN the Vikings on head to head.

The steps follow the league's tiebreaking procedures. See every step or read our guide to NFL tiebreakers.

How we got these numbers

Three steps, run again after every game window.

  1. Rate every teamWe rate every team from the points in its games so far.
  2. Play out the seasonEvery game left is played out 50,000 times.
  3. Seed every seasonEach of those seasons is seeded with the real NFL tiebreakers.

The result

DET 89 in 100

The Lions made the playoffs in 89 of every 100 seasons.

Clinched and eliminated are proved, not played out. They and the magic numbers are worked out another way. They are proved from every result still possible, so they are certain, not likely. How the proof works

✓Checked Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET. Our seeding matches the official standings for 32 of 32 teams. How it works

Lions playoff questions

What are the Lions playoff chances right now?

The Lions make the playoffs in 89 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is an 89% chance. At 7-2 they hold the NFC 2nd seed today. That is up 14 from last week. Updated Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET.

Can the Lions still make the playoffs?

Yes. The Lions make the playoffs 89 times in 100 in our runs. They are 2 games ahead of the Seahawks, the first team outside the playoff places.

What do the Lions need to make the playoffs?

In our runs a final record of 10-7 got in 76 times in 100 and 9-8 got in 23 times in 100. If they win every game left, they are in.

Are the Lions eliminated from the playoffs?

No. The Lions are not eliminated. The Lions cannot be knocked out by their own results yet. Even if they lose all 8 games they have left, there is still a way in. They are 2 games ahead of the Seahawks, the first team outside the playoff places.

What is the Lions magic number?

The Lions magic number is 6. 6 more wins put the Lions in the playoffs, whatever any other team does. If they win all 8 games they have left, the Lions win the NFC North whatever any other team does.

What are the Lions playoff scenarios for week 10?

The Lions do not play in week 10. Their next game is vs the Buccaneers on Sun, Nov 22. With the other key results added, the best case this week is 92 in 100 and the worst case is 87.

Can the Lions clinch a playoff spot this week?

No. The Lions cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Lions be eliminated this week?

No. The Lions cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Who should Lions fans root for this week?

Besides their own game, the results that help the Lions most in week 10 are the Cardinals over the Rams and the Raiders over the Seahawks.

Who do the Lions play next?

Next they play vs the Buccaneers on Sun, Nov 22. A win lifts the chance to 94 in 100. A loss drops it to 81.

Can the Lions still win the NFC North?

The Lions win the NFC North in 34 of 100. They lead the NFC North on a tiebreaker over the Vikings.

What are the Lions Super Bowl chances?

The Lions reach the Super Bowl in 15 of every 100 seasons we play out and win it in 7.

How hard is the Lions remaining schedule?

The Lions have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 39-34-1, the 7th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

More playoff chances