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Updated · Week 10 · 50,000 seasons played out

Pittsburgh Steelers playoff chances

The Steelers make the playoffs in 85 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is an 85% chance as of week 10.

PIT Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers make the playoffs in 85 of every 100 seasons we play out. At 6-2 they hold the AFC 4th seed today.

  • 6-2Record
  • 4thin the AFC today
  • 35in 100 win the AFC North
  • +1since last week

Next game at the Bengals

PLAYOFFS10203040504030201085in 100

The ball shows how far the Steelers are from the playoffs. The end zone is 100 in 100.

100 seasons, one dot each

  • 35 win the AFC North
  • 50 get in as a wild card
  • 15 miss the playoffs

Chance after each weekUp 29 since week 1

100500Wk 1Wk 4Wk 7Now85

What the Steelers need to make the playoffs

Magic number77 more wins put the Steelers in the playoffs, whatever any other team does. 6 more wins could be enough if a tiebreaker goes their way.
AFC North magic number9If they win all 9 games they have left, the Steelers win the AFC North whatever any other team does.
Elimination numberTiebreakEven if they lose all 9 games they have left, the Steelers could still get in, but only if tiebreakers go their way.

These three are proved, not played out: we check every way the season can still finish. How the proof works

If they win every game left, they are in. Each row is a final record and how often it was enough.

  1. 11-6 or better99+ in 100Most likely finish. Happens 64 times in 100
  2. 10-789 in 100Happens 19 times in 100
  3. 9-841 in 100Happens 11 times in 100
  4. 8-95 in 100Happens 5 times in 100
  5. 7-10<1 in 100Happens 1 time in 100

Steelers playoff scenarios for week 10

This week at Bengals Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 PM ET

If they win95
Today85
If they lose79

A big game. Winning instead of losing is worth 15 in 100. The Steelers win this game 37 times in 100.

Best and worst case this week

Best week96Steelers beat Bengals, Seahawks beat Raiders, Chargers beat Ravens
Worst week78Bengals beat Steelers, Raiders beat Seahawks, Ravens beat Chargers

Steelers clinching scenarios for week 10

No. The Steelers cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Steelers be eliminated in week 10?

No. The Steelers cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Every answer here is proved from the results still possible, with the league's tiebreakers through conference record. Clinching scenarios for every team

Who Steelers fans should root for in week 10

  1. SEASeahawksover the Raiders Sun, Nov 15+2
  2. LACChargersover the Ravens Mon, Nov 16+2

The number is how much a result helps, in chances out of 100. Swings under 1.5 are left out because they are too small to trust.

Try your own Steelers playoff scenarios

Tap a result. We replay the season 6,000 times on your device and move the ball.

Steelers games left

  1. Wk 10at BengalsSun, Nov 15 · wins 37 in 100
  2. Wk 11at EaglesSun, Nov 22 · wins 68 in 100
  3. Wk 12vs BroncosFri, Nov 27 · wins 56 in 100
  4. Wk 13vs TexansSun, Dec 6 · wins 59 in 100
  5. Wk 14at JaguarsMon, Dec 14 · wins 31 in 100
  6. Wk 15vs RavensSun, Dec 20 · wins 70 in 100
  7. Wk 16vs PanthersSun, Dec 27 · wins 65 in 100
  8. Wk 17at TitansSun, Jan 3 · wins 68 in 100
  9. Wk 18at RavensSun, Jan 10 · wins 61 in 100

Other games in week 10

  1. Rams at CardinalsSun, Nov 15
  2. Seahawks at RaidersSun, Nov 15
  3. 49ers at CowboysSun, Nov 15
  4. Chargers at RavensMon, Nov 16

Steelers playoff picture today

The Steelers are 6-2 and hold the AFC 4th seed. They are 2 games ahead of the Patriots, the first team outside the playoff places.

They lead the AFC North on a tiebreaker over the Bengals.

If the playoffs started today, the Steelers would host the Broncos in the wild card round.

Last 5:LWWWWThey have won 4 in a row.

Our strength rating puts them 10th of 32, 2.2 points better than an average team. The Steelers made the playoffs in 4 of the last 5 seasons (2021, 2023, 2024, 2025).

See every seed in the AFC playoff picture and today's playoff bracket.

AFC North standings

TeamRecordIn divisionPlayoffsWin division
PIT Steelers6-22-18535
CIN Bengals6-21-19458
CLE Browns6-42-1507
BAL Ravens4-50-2101

Steelers playoff odds by seed

How often each seed came up, out of 100 seasons.

  1. 1st seed bye week5
  2. 2nd seed9
  3. 3rd seed10
  4. 4th seed last home game11
  5. 5th seed19
  6. 6th seed20
  7. 7th seed11
  8. Miss the playoffs15

How far the Steelers can go

The Steelers playoff odds for each round, out of 100. We play the bracket in every season, up to the Super Bowl.

  1. Make the playoffs85in 100
  2. Reach the divisional round41in 100
  3. Reach the conference title game17in 100
  4. Reach the Super Bowl7in 100
  5. Win the Super Bowl3in 100

Steelers remaining schedule

The Steelers have 9 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 38-42, the 26th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

WeekDateOpponentTheir recordChance to win
10Sun, Nov 15at Bengals6-2 37 in 100
11Sun, Nov 22at Eagles2-7 68 in 100
12Fri, Nov 27vs Broncos7-2 56 in 100
13Sun, Dec 6vs Texans3-6 59 in 100
14Mon, Dec 14at Jaguars7-2 31 in 100
15Sun, Dec 20vs Ravens4-5 70 in 100
16Sun, Dec 27vs Panthers4-5 65 in 100
17Sun, Jan 3at Titans1-8 68 in 100
18Sun, Jan 10at Ravens4-5 61 in 100

Every game this week, with kickoff times in your own time zone, is on the NFL games this week page. The Steelers bye is in week 9. Every team's week off is in our guide to NFL bye weeks 2026.

Steelers results and how their playoff chances moved

Each row shows the playoff chance once that week was complete.

WeekDateOpponentResultPlayoff chance after
1Sun, Sep 13vs FalconsWon 20 to 1356 in 100
2Sun, Sep 20at PatriotsLost 3 to 2035 in 100 -21
3Sun, Sep 27vs BengalsWon 30 to 2742 in 100 +7
4Thu, Oct 1at BrownsLost 24 to 2737 in 100 -5
5Sun, Oct 11vs ColtsWon 34 to 2247 in 100 +10
6Sun, Oct 18at BuccaneersWon 26 to 1957 in 100 +10
7Sun, Oct 25vs SaintsWon 16 to 1071 in 100 +14
8Sun, Nov 1vs BrownsWon 27 to 683 in 100 +12

Tiebreakers in play for the Steelers

These ties are being broken in today's standings.

  • AheadPIT The Steelers are ahead of CIN the Bengals on head to head.

The steps follow the league's tiebreaking procedures. See every step or read our guide to NFL tiebreakers.

How we got these numbers

Three steps, run again after every game window.

  1. Rate every teamWe rate every team from the points in its games so far.
  2. Play out the seasonEvery game left is played out 50,000 times.
  3. Seed every seasonEach of those seasons is seeded with the real NFL tiebreakers.

The result

PIT 85 in 100

The Steelers made the playoffs in 85 of every 100 seasons.

Clinched and eliminated are proved, not played out. They and the magic numbers are worked out another way. They are proved from every result still possible, so they are certain, not likely. How the proof works

✓Checked Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET. Our seeding matches the official standings for 32 of 32 teams. How it works

Steelers playoff questions

What are the Steelers playoff chances right now?

The Steelers make the playoffs in 85 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is an 85% chance. At 6-2 they hold the AFC 4th seed today. That is up 1 from last week. Updated Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET.

Can the Steelers still make the playoffs?

Yes. The Steelers make the playoffs 85 times in 100 in our runs. They are 2 games ahead of the Patriots, the first team outside the playoff places.

What do the Steelers need to make the playoffs?

In our runs a final record of 10-7 got in 89 times in 100, 9-8 got in 41 times in 100 and 8-9 got in 5 times in 100. If they win every game left, they are in.

Are the Steelers eliminated from the playoffs?

No. The Steelers are not eliminated. Even if they lose all 9 games they have left, the Steelers could still get in, but only if tiebreakers go their way. They are 2 games ahead of the Patriots, the first team outside the playoff places.

What is the Steelers magic number?

The Steelers magic number is 7. 7 more wins put the Steelers in the playoffs, whatever any other team does. 6 more wins could be enough if a tiebreaker goes their way. If they win all 9 games they have left, the Steelers win the AFC North whatever any other team does.

What are the Steelers playoff scenarios for week 10?

The Steelers play at the Bengals on Sun, Nov 15. A win lifts their chance to 95 in 100 and a loss drops it to 79. With the other key results added, the best case this week is 96 in 100 and the worst case is 78.

Can the Steelers clinch a playoff spot this week?

No. The Steelers cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Steelers be eliminated this week?

No. The Steelers cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Who should Steelers fans root for this week?

Besides their own game, the results that help the Steelers most in week 10 are the Seahawks over the Raiders and the Chargers over the Ravens.

Who do the Steelers play next?

Next they play at the Bengals on Sun, Nov 15. A win lifts the chance to 95 in 100. A loss drops it to 79.

Can the Steelers still win the AFC North?

The Steelers win the AFC North in 35 of 100. They lead the AFC North on a tiebreaker over the Bengals.

What are the Steelers Super Bowl chances?

The Steelers reach the Super Bowl in 7 of every 100 seasons we play out and win it in 3.

How hard is the Steelers remaining schedule?

The Steelers have 9 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 38-42, the 26th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

More playoff chances