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Updated · Week 10 · 50,000 seasons played out

New Orleans Saints playoff chances

The Saints make the playoffs in 10 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 10% chance as of week 10.

NO New Orleans Saints

The Saints make the playoffs in 10 of every 100 seasons we play out. At 3-6 they sit 14th in the NFC, 7 spots outside the playoff places.

  • 3-6Record
  • 14thin the NFC today
  • 9in 100 win the NFC South
  • -6since last week

Next game at the Bears (week 11)

PLAYOFFS102030405040302010last week10in 100

The ball shows how far the Saints are from the playoffs. The end zone is 100 in 100.

100 seasons, one dot each

  • 9 win the NFC South
  • 1 get in as a wild card
  • 90 miss the playoffs

Chance after each weekDown 31 since week 1

100500Wk 1Wk 4Wk 7Now10

What the Saints need to make the playoffs

Magic numberTiebreakWinning all 8 games they have left might be enough for the Saints, but only if a tiebreaker goes their way. On wins alone they need help.
NFC South magic numberTiebreakThe Saints cannot win the NFC South on their own. Winning all 8 games they have left would leave it to a tiebreaker.
Elimination number77 more losses knock the Saints out, whatever else happens. 6 more losses could be enough if tiebreakers go against them.

These three are proved, not played out: we check every way the season can still finish. How the proof works

If they win every game left, they are in. Each row is a final record and how often it was enough.

  1. 10-799 in 100Happens 1 time in 100
  2. 9-876 in 100Happens 5 times in 100
  3. 8-930 in 100Happens 12 times in 100
  4. 7-104 in 100Happens 21 times in 100
  5. 6-11 or worse<1 in 100Most likely finish. Happens 60 times in 100

Saints playoff scenarios for week 10

Next game, week 11 at Bears Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET

If they win19
Today10
If they lose6

A big game. Winning instead of losing is worth 12 in 100. The Saints win this game 27 times in 100.

The Saints do not play in week 10.

Saints clinching scenarios for week 10

No. The Saints cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Saints be eliminated in week 10?

No. The Saints cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Every answer here is proved from the results still possible, with the league's tiebreakers through conference record. Clinching scenarios for every team

Who Saints fans should root for in week 10

No other game this week moves the Saints by more than 1 in 100.

Try your own Saints playoff scenarios

Tap a result. We replay the season 6,000 times on your device and move the ball.

Saints games left

  1. Wk 11at BearsSun, Nov 22 · wins 27 in 100
  2. Wk 12at BengalsSun, Nov 29 · wins 24 in 100
  3. Wk 13vs PackersSun, Dec 6 · wins 44 in 100
  4. Wk 14at PanthersSun, Dec 13 · wins 40 in 100
  5. Wk 15at BuccaneersSun, Dec 20 · wins 31 in 100
  6. Wk 16vs CardinalsSun, Dec 27 · wins 60 in 100
  7. Wk 17at FalconsSun, Jan 3 · wins 44 in 100
  8. Wk 18vs BuccaneersSun, Jan 10 · wins 41 in 100

Other games in week 10

  1. Rams at CardinalsSun, Nov 15
  2. Seahawks at RaidersSun, Nov 15
  3. 49ers at CowboysSun, Nov 15
  4. Steelers at BengalsSun, Nov 15
  5. Chargers at RavensMon, Nov 16

Saints playoff picture today

The Saints are 3-6 and sit 14th in the NFC. They are 2.5 games behind the Packers, who hold the last playoff place.

They are 3rd in the NFC South, 1 game behind the Panthers.

If the playoffs started today, the Saints would miss out.

Last 5:LWLWLThey lost their last game.

Our strength rating puts them 24th of 32, 2.8 points worse than an average team. The Saints missed the playoffs in each of the last 5 seasons.

See every seed in the NFC playoff picture and today's playoff bracket.

NFC South standings

TeamRecordIn divisionPlayoffsWin division
CAR Panthers4-52-13635
TB Buccaneers3-62-04948
NO Saints3-60-2109
ATL Falcons3-71-288

Saints playoff odds by seed

How often each seed came up, out of 100 seasons.

  1. 1st seed bye week<1
  2. 2nd seed<1
  3. 3rd seed3
  4. 4th seed last home game7
  5. 5th seed<1
  6. 6th seed<1
  7. 7th seed<1
  8. Miss the playoffs90

How far the Saints can go

The Saints playoff odds for each round, out of 100. We play the bracket in every season, up to the Super Bowl.

  1. Make the playoffs10in 100
  2. Reach the divisional round4in 100
  3. Reach the conference title game2in 100
  4. Reach the Super Bowl1in 100
  5. Win the Super Bowl<1in 100

Saints remaining schedule

The Saints have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 35-38, the 25th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

WeekDateOpponentTheir recordChance to win
11Sun, Nov 22at Bears7-2 27 in 100
12Sun, Nov 29at Bengals6-2 24 in 100
13Sun, Dec 6vs Packers6-4 44 in 100
14Sun, Dec 13at Panthers4-5 40 in 100
15Sun, Dec 20at Buccaneers3-6 31 in 100
16Sun, Dec 27vs Cardinals3-6 60 in 100
17Sun, Jan 3at Falcons3-7 44 in 100
18Sun, Jan 10vs Buccaneers3-6 41 in 100

Every game this week, with kickoff times in your own time zone, is on the NFL games this week page. The Saints bye is in week 8. Every team's week off is in our guide to NFL bye weeks 2026.

Saints results and how their playoff chances moved

Each row shows the playoff chance once that week was complete.

WeekDateOpponentResultPlayoff chance after
1Sun, Sep 13at LionsLost 30 to 3141 in 100
2Sun, Sep 20at RavensWon 24 to 1756 in 100 +15
3Sun, Sep 27vs RaidersLost 27 to 3546 in 100 -10
4Mon, Oct 5vs FalconsLost 24 to 4519 in 100 -27
5Sun, Oct 11vs VikingsLost 13 to 2311 in 100 -8
6Sun, Oct 18at GiantsWon 34 to 2719 in 100 +8
7Sun, Oct 25vs SteelersLost 10 to 1611 in 100 -8
9Sun, Nov 8vs BrownsWon 23 to 2216 in 100 +4
10Sun, Nov 15vs PanthersLost 17 to 20week not finished

If the Saints miss the playoffs: draft position

  • 90in 100 miss the playoffs
  • No. 8average first round pick
  • 21in 100 get a top 5 pick
  • 1in 100 get the first pick

If the Saints miss the playoffs, their own first round pick lands at about No. 9 on average. They end up with the first overall pick in 1 of 100 seasons and with a top 5 pick in 21.

Picks 1 to 18 go to the teams that miss the playoffs, worst record first. Trades are not included.

Tiebreakers in play for the Saints

These ties are being broken in today's standings.

  • BehindTB The Buccaneers are ahead of NO the Saints on division record.
  • BehindARI The Cardinals are ahead of NO the Saints on conference record.

The steps follow the league's tiebreaking procedures. See every step or read our guide to NFL tiebreakers.

How we got these numbers

Three steps, run again after every game window.

  1. Rate every teamWe rate every team from the points in its games so far.
  2. Play out the seasonEvery game left is played out 50,000 times.
  3. Seed every seasonEach of those seasons is seeded with the real NFL tiebreakers.

The result

NO 10 in 100

The Saints made the playoffs in 10 of every 100 seasons.

Clinched and eliminated are proved, not played out. They and the magic numbers are worked out another way. They are proved from every result still possible, so they are certain, not likely. How the proof works

✓Checked Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET. Our seeding matches the official standings for 32 of 32 teams. How it works

Saints playoff questions

What are the Saints playoff chances right now?

The Saints make the playoffs in 10 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 10% chance. At 3-6 they sit 14th in the NFC, 7 spots outside the playoff places. That is down 6 from last week. Updated Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET.

Can the Saints still make the playoffs?

Yes, but they need things to go their way. The Saints make the playoffs 10 times in 100 in our runs. They are 2.5 games behind the Packers, who hold the last playoff place. If they win every game left, they are in.

What do the Saints need to make the playoffs?

In our runs a final record of 9-8 got in 76 times in 100, 8-9 got in 30 times in 100 and 7-10 got in 4 times in 100. If they win every game left, they are in.

Are the Saints eliminated from the playoffs?

No. The Saints are not eliminated. 7 more losses knock the Saints out, whatever else happens. 6 more losses could be enough if tiebreakers go against them. They are 2.5 games behind the Packers, who hold the last playoff place.

What is the Saints magic number?

The Saints do not have a magic number yet. Winning all 8 games they have left might be enough for the Saints, but only if a tiebreaker goes their way. On wins alone they need help. The Saints cannot win the NFC South on their own. Winning all 8 games they have left would leave it to a tiebreaker.

What are the Saints playoff scenarios for week 10?

The Saints do not play in week 10. Their next game is at the Bears on Sun, Nov 22.

Can the Saints clinch a playoff spot this week?

No. The Saints cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Saints be eliminated this week?

No. The Saints cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Who should Saints fans root for this week?

No other game in week 10 moves the Saints by more than 1 in 100.

Who do the Saints play next?

Next they play at the Bears on Sun, Nov 22. A win lifts the chance to 19 in 100. A loss drops it to 6.

Can the Saints still win the NFC South?

The Saints win the NFC South in 9 of 100. They are 3rd in the NFC South, 1 game behind the Panthers.

What are the Saints Super Bowl chances?

The Saints reach the Super Bowl in 1 of every 100 seasons we play out and win it in fewer than 1.

How hard is the Saints remaining schedule?

The Saints have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 35-38, the 25th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

More playoff chances