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Updated · Week 10 · 50,000 seasons played out

Dallas Cowboys playoff chances

The Cowboys make the playoffs in 33 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 33% chance as of week 10.

DAL Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys make the playoffs in 33 of every 100 seasons we play out. At 4-5 they sit 10th in the NFC, 3 spots outside the playoff places.

  • 4-5Record
  • 10thin the NFC today
  • 30in 100 win the NFC East
  • +7since last week

Next game vs the 49ers

PLAYOFFS102030405040302010last week33in 100

The ball shows how far the Cowboys are from the playoffs. The end zone is 100 in 100.

100 seasons, one dot each

  • 30 win the NFC East
  • 3 get in as a wild card
  • 67 miss the playoffs

Chance after each weekUp 1 since week 1

100500Wk 1Wk 4Wk 7Now33

What the Cowboys need to make the playoffs

Magic numberNeeds helpThe Cowboys cannot lock up a playoff spot on their own. Even if they win all 8 games they have left, other results could keep them out.
NFC East magic numberNeeds helpThe Cowboys cannot win the NFC East on their own. Even if they win all 8 games they have left, they need another team to slip.
Elimination number77 more losses knock the Cowboys out, whatever else happens.

These three are proved, not played out: we check every way the season can still finish. How the proof works

If they win every game left, they are in. Each row is a final record and how often it was enough.

  1. 12-599+ in 100Happens 1 time in 100
  2. 11-699 in 100Happens 4 times in 100
  3. 10-790 in 100Happens 12 times in 100
  4. 9-855 in 100Happens 21 times in 100
  5. 8-920 in 100Most likely finish. Happens 25 times in 100
  6. 7-104 in 100Happens 21 times in 100
  7. 6-11 or worse<1 in 100Happens 17 times in 100

Cowboys playoff scenarios for week 10

This week vs 49ers Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 PM ET

If they win47
Today33
If they lose23

A big game. Winning instead of losing is worth 24 in 100. The Cowboys win this game 40 times in 100.

Best and worst case this week

Best week48Cowboys beat 49ers, Raiders beat Seahawks
Worst week2249ers beat Cowboys, Seahawks beat Raiders

Cowboys clinching scenarios for week 10

No. The Cowboys cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Cowboys be eliminated in week 10?

No. The Cowboys cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Every answer here is proved from the results still possible, with the league's tiebreakers through conference record. Clinching scenarios for every team

Who Cowboys fans should root for in week 10

  1. LVRaidersover the Seahawks Sun, Nov 15+2

The number is how much a result helps, in chances out of 100. Swings under 1.5 are left out because they are too small to trust.

Try your own Cowboys playoff scenarios

Tap a result. We replay the season 6,000 times on your device and move the ball.

Cowboys games left

  1. Wk 10vs 49ersSun, Nov 15 · wins 40 in 100
  2. Wk 11vs TitansSun, Nov 22 · wins 71 in 100
  3. Wk 12vs EaglesThu, Nov 26 · wins 70 in 100
  4. Wk 13at SeahawksMon, Dec 7 · wins 38 in 100
  5. Wk 15at RamsSun, Dec 20 · wins 39 in 100
  6. Wk 16vs JaguarsSun, Dec 27 · wins 34 in 100
  7. Wk 17vs GiantsSun, Jan 3 · wins 58 in 100
  8. Wk 18at CommandersSun, Jan 10 · wins 52 in 100

Other games in week 10

  1. Rams at CardinalsSun, Nov 15
  2. Seahawks at RaidersSun, Nov 15
  3. Steelers at BengalsSun, Nov 15
  4. Chargers at RavensMon, Nov 16

Cowboys playoff picture today

The Cowboys are 4-5 and sit 10th in the NFC. They are 1.5 games behind the Packers, who hold the last playoff place.

They are 2nd in the NFC East, 1.5 games behind the Giants.

If the playoffs started today, the Cowboys would miss out.

Last 5:LLWLWThey won their last game.

Our strength rating puts them 17th of 32, 0.2 points worse than an average team. The Cowboys made the playoffs in 3 of the last 5 seasons (2021, 2022, 2023).

See every seed in the NFC playoff picture and today's playoff bracket.

NFC East standings

TeamRecordIn divisionPlayoffsWin division
NYG Giants5-3-12-1-15957
DAL Cowboys4-52-13330
WSH Commanders3-5-12-2-11312
PHI Eagles2-71-311

Cowboys playoff odds by seed

How often each seed came up, out of 100 seasons.

  1. 1st seed bye week<1
  2. 2nd seed2
  3. 3rd seed15
  4. 4th seed last home game14
  5. 5th seed<1
  6. 6th seed1
  7. 7th seed2
  8. Miss the playoffs67

How far the Cowboys can go

The Cowboys playoff odds for each round, out of 100. We play the bracket in every season, up to the Super Bowl.

  1. Make the playoffs33in 100
  2. Reach the divisional round16in 100
  3. Reach the conference title game7in 100
  4. Reach the Super Bowl3in 100
  5. Win the Super Bowl1in 100

Cowboys remaining schedule

The Cowboys have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 35-34-2, the 16th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

WeekDateOpponentTheir recordChance to win
10Sun, Nov 15vs 49ers7-1 40 in 100
11Sun, Nov 22vs Titans1-8 71 in 100
12Thu, Nov 26vs Eagles2-7 70 in 100
13Mon, Dec 7at Seahawks5-4 38 in 100
15Sun, Dec 20at Rams5-4 39 in 100
16Sun, Dec 27vs Jaguars7-2 34 in 100
17Sun, Jan 3vs Giants5-3-1 58 in 100
18Sun, Jan 10at Commanders3-5-1 52 in 100

Every game this week, with kickoff times in your own time zone, is on the NFL games this week page. The Cowboys bye is in week 14. Every team's week off is in our guide to NFL bye weeks 2026.

Cowboys results and how their playoff chances moved

Each row shows the playoff chance once that week was complete.

WeekDateOpponentResultPlayoff chance after
1Sun, Sep 13at GiantsLost 20 to 2832 in 100
2Sun, Sep 20vs CommandersWon 37 to 2046 in 100 +14
3Sun, Sep 27vs RavensLost 31 to 3442 in 100 -4
4Sun, Oct 4at TexansWon 34 to 3050 in 100 +8
5Thu, Oct 8vs BuccaneersLost 16 to 2437 in 100 -13
6Sun, Oct 18at PackersLost 13 to 2332 in 100 -5
7Mon, Oct 26at EaglesWon 38 to 2142 in 100 +10
8Sun, Nov 1vs CardinalsLost 30 to 3325 in 100 -17
9Sun, Nov 8at ColtsWon 27 to 2326 in 100 +1

If the Cowboys miss the playoffs: draft position

  • 67in 100 miss the playoffs
  • No. 11average first round pick
  • 5in 100 get a top 5 pick
  • <1in 100 get the first pick

If the Cowboys miss the playoffs, their own first round pick lands at about No. 11 on average. They end up with a top 5 pick in 5 of 100 seasons.

Picks 1 to 18 go to the teams that miss the playoffs, worst record first. Trades are not included.

How we got these numbers

Three steps, run again after every game window.

  1. Rate every teamWe rate every team from the points in its games so far.
  2. Play out the seasonEvery game left is played out 50,000 times.
  3. Seed every seasonEach of those seasons is seeded with the real NFL tiebreakers.

The result

DAL 33 in 100

The Cowboys made the playoffs in 33 of every 100 seasons.

Clinched and eliminated are proved, not played out. They and the magic numbers are worked out another way. They are proved from every result still possible, so they are certain, not likely. How the proof works

✓Checked Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET. Our seeding matches the official standings for 32 of 32 teams. How it works

Cowboys playoff questions

What are the Cowboys playoff chances right now?

The Cowboys make the playoffs in 33 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 33% chance. At 4-5 they sit 10th in the NFC, 3 spots outside the playoff places. That is up 7 from last week. Updated Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET.

Can the Cowboys still make the playoffs?

Yes, but they need things to go their way. The Cowboys make the playoffs 33 times in 100 in our runs. They are 1.5 games behind the Packers, who hold the last playoff place. If they win every game left, they are in.

What do the Cowboys need to make the playoffs?

In our runs a final record of 10-7 got in 90 times in 100, 9-8 got in 55 times in 100 and 8-9 got in 20 times in 100. If they win every game left, they are in.

Are the Cowboys eliminated from the playoffs?

No. The Cowboys are not eliminated. 7 more losses knock the Cowboys out, whatever else happens. They are 1.5 games behind the Packers, who hold the last playoff place.

What is the Cowboys magic number?

The Cowboys do not have a magic number yet. The Cowboys cannot lock up a playoff spot on their own. Even if they win all 8 games they have left, other results could keep them out. The Cowboys cannot win the NFC East on their own. Even if they win all 8 games they have left, they need another team to slip.

What are the Cowboys playoff scenarios for week 10?

The Cowboys play vs the 49ers on Sun, Nov 15. A win lifts their chance to 47 in 100 and a loss drops it to 23. With the other key results added, the best case this week is 48 in 100 and the worst case is 22.

Can the Cowboys clinch a playoff spot this week?

No. The Cowboys cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Cowboys be eliminated this week?

No. The Cowboys cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Who should Cowboys fans root for this week?

Besides their own game, the results that help the Cowboys most in week 10 are the Raiders over the Seahawks.

Who do the Cowboys play next?

Next they play vs the 49ers on Sun, Nov 15. A win lifts the chance to 47 in 100. A loss drops it to 23.

Can the Cowboys still win the NFC East?

The Cowboys win the NFC East in 30 of 100. They are 2nd in the NFC East, 1.5 games behind the Giants.

What are the Cowboys Super Bowl chances?

The Cowboys reach the Super Bowl in 3 of every 100 seasons we play out and win it in 1.

How hard is the Cowboys remaining schedule?

The Cowboys have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 35-34-2, the 16th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

More playoff chances