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Updated · Week 10 · 50,000 seasons played out

Denver Broncos playoff chances

The Broncos make the playoffs in 92 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 92% chance as of week 10.

DEN Denver Broncos

The Broncos make the playoffs in 92 of every 100 seasons we play out. At 7-2 they hold the AFC 5th seed today.

  • 7-2Record
  • 5thin the AFC today
  • 41in 100 win the AFC West
  • +1since last week

Next game vs the Raiders (week 11, off this week)

PLAYOFFS10203040504030201092in 100

The ball shows how far the Broncos are from the playoffs. The end zone is 100 in 100.

100 seasons, one dot each

  • 41 win the AFC West
  • 51 get in as a wild card
  • 8 miss the playoffs

Chance after each weekUp 70 since week 1

100500Wk 1Wk 4Wk 7Now92

What the Broncos need to make the playoffs

Magic number66 more wins put the Broncos in the playoffs, whatever any other team does. 5 more wins could be enough if a tiebreaker goes their way.
AFC West magic numberTiebreakThe Broncos cannot win the AFC West on their own. Winning all 8 games they have left would leave it to a tiebreaker.
Elimination numberNot yetThe Broncos cannot be knocked out by their own results yet. Even if they lose all 8 games they have left, there is still a way in.

These three are proved, not played out: we check every way the season can still finish. How the proof works

If they win every game left, they are in. Each row is a final record and how often it was enough.

  1. 11-6 or better99+ in 100Most likely finish. Happens 77 times in 100
  2. 10-786 in 100Happens 14 times in 100
  3. 9-831 in 100Happens 6 times in 100
  4. 8-92 in 100Happens 2 times in 100

Broncos playoff scenarios for week 10

Next game, week 11 vs Raiders Sun, Nov 22, 4:25 PM ET

If they win97
Today92
If they lose82

A big game. Winning instead of losing is worth 15 in 100. The Broncos win this game 66 times in 100.

The Broncos do not play in week 10.

Best and worst case this week

Best week92Seahawks beat Raiders
Worst week90Raiders beat Seahawks

Broncos clinching scenarios for week 10

No. The Broncos cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Broncos be eliminated in week 10?

No. The Broncos cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Every answer here is proved from the results still possible, with the league's tiebreakers through conference record. Clinching scenarios for every team

Who Broncos fans should root for in week 10

  1. SEASeahawksover the Raiders Sun, Nov 15+2

The number is how much a result helps, in chances out of 100. Swings under 1.5 are left out because they are too small to trust.

Try your own Broncos playoff scenarios

Tap a result. We replay the season 6,000 times on your device and move the ball.

Broncos games left

  1. Wk 11vs RaidersSun, Nov 22 · wins 66 in 100
  2. Wk 12at SteelersFri, Nov 27 · wins 44 in 100
  3. Wk 13vs DolphinsSun, Dec 6 · wins 73 in 100
  4. Wk 14at JetsSun, Dec 13 · wins 62 in 100
  5. Wk 15at RaidersSun, Dec 20 · wins 56 in 100
  6. Wk 16vs BillsFri, Dec 25 · wins 43 in 100
  7. Wk 17at PatriotsSun, Jan 3 · wins 51 in 100
  8. Wk 18vs ChargersSun, Jan 10 · wins 78 in 100

Other games in week 10

  1. Rams at CardinalsSun, Nov 15
  2. Seahawks at RaidersSun, Nov 15
  3. 49ers at CowboysSun, Nov 15
  4. Steelers at BengalsSun, Nov 15
  5. Chargers at RavensMon, Nov 16

Broncos playoff picture today

The Broncos are 7-2 and hold the AFC 5th seed. They are 2.5 games ahead of the Patriots, the first team outside the playoff places.

They are 2nd in the AFC West, level with the Chiefs but behind on a tiebreaker.

If the playoffs started today, the Broncos would visit the Steelers in the wild card round.

Last 5:WWWWWThey have won 5 in a row.

Our strength rating puts them 11th of 32, 1.9 points better than an average team. The Broncos made the playoffs in 2 of the last 5 seasons (2024, 2025).

See every seed in the AFC playoff picture and today's playoff bracket.

AFC West standings

TeamRecordIn divisionPlayoffsWin division
KC Chiefs7-23-19657
DEN Broncos7-22-19241
LV Raiders4-51-1202
LAC Chargers0-80-3<1<1

Broncos playoff odds by seed

How often each seed came up, out of 100 seasons.

  1. 1st seed bye week11
  2. 2nd seed11
  3. 3rd seed11
  4. 4th seed last home game8
  5. 5th seed27
  6. 6th seed15
  7. 7th seed8
  8. Miss the playoffs8

How far the Broncos can go

The Broncos playoff odds for each round, out of 100. We play the bracket in every season, up to the Super Bowl.

  1. Make the playoffs92in 100
  2. Reach the divisional round47in 100
  3. Reach the conference title game20in 100
  4. Reach the Super Bowl8in 100
  5. Win the Super Bowl4in 100

Broncos remaining schedule

The Broncos have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 30-42, the 31st hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

WeekDateOpponentTheir recordChance to win
11Sun, Nov 22vs Raiders4-5 66 in 100
12Fri, Nov 27at Steelers6-2 44 in 100
13Sun, Dec 6vs Dolphins1-8 73 in 100
14Sun, Dec 13at Jets2-8 62 in 100
15Sun, Dec 20at Raiders4-5 56 in 100
16Fri, Dec 25vs Bills8-1 43 in 100
17Sun, Jan 3at Patriots5-5 51 in 100
18Sun, Jan 10vs Chargers0-8 78 in 100

Every game this week, with kickoff times in your own time zone, is on the NFL games this week page. The Broncos bye is in week 10. Every team's week off is in our guide to NFL bye weeks 2026.

Broncos results and how their playoff chances moved

Each row shows the playoff chance once that week was complete.

WeekDateOpponentResultPlayoff chance after
1Mon, Sep 14at ChiefsLost 10 to 3122 in 100
2Sun, Sep 20vs JaguarsWon 20 to 1334 in 100 +12
3Sun, Sep 27vs RamsWon 30 to 2643 in 100 +9
4Sun, Oct 4at 49ersLost 14 to 2438 in 100 -5
5Sun, Oct 11at ChargersWon 23 to 1747 in 100 +9
6Thu, Oct 15vs SeahawksWon 17 to 1450 in 100 +3
7Sun, Oct 25at CardinalsWon 30 to 1668 in 100 +18
8Sun, Nov 1vs ChiefsWon 28 to 2479 in 100 +11
9Sun, Nov 8at PanthersWon 26 to 2191 in 100 +12

Tiebreakers in play for the Broncos

These ties are being broken in today's standings.

  • BehindKC The Chiefs are ahead of DEN the Broncos on division record.

The steps follow the league's tiebreaking procedures. See every step or read our guide to NFL tiebreakers.

How we got these numbers

Three steps, run again after every game window.

  1. Rate every teamWe rate every team from the points in its games so far.
  2. Play out the seasonEvery game left is played out 50,000 times.
  3. Seed every seasonEach of those seasons is seeded with the real NFL tiebreakers.

The result

DEN 92 in 100

The Broncos made the playoffs in 92 of every 100 seasons.

Clinched and eliminated are proved, not played out. They and the magic numbers are worked out another way. They are proved from every result still possible, so they are certain, not likely. How the proof works

✓Checked Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET. Our seeding matches the official standings for 32 of 32 teams. How it works

Broncos playoff questions

What are the Broncos playoff chances right now?

The Broncos make the playoffs in 92 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 92% chance. At 7-2 they hold the AFC 5th seed today. That is up 1 from last week. Updated Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET.

Can the Broncos still make the playoffs?

Yes. The Broncos make the playoffs 92 times in 100 in our runs. They are 2.5 games ahead of the Patriots, the first team outside the playoff places.

What do the Broncos need to make the playoffs?

In our runs a final record of 10-7 got in 86 times in 100 and 9-8 got in 31 times in 100. If they win every game left, they are in.

Are the Broncos eliminated from the playoffs?

No. The Broncos are not eliminated. The Broncos cannot be knocked out by their own results yet. Even if they lose all 8 games they have left, there is still a way in. They are 2.5 games ahead of the Patriots, the first team outside the playoff places.

What is the Broncos magic number?

The Broncos magic number is 6. 6 more wins put the Broncos in the playoffs, whatever any other team does. 5 more wins could be enough if a tiebreaker goes their way. The Broncos cannot win the AFC West on their own. Winning all 8 games they have left would leave it to a tiebreaker.

What are the Broncos playoff scenarios for week 10?

The Broncos do not play in week 10. Their next game is vs the Raiders on Sun, Nov 22. With the other key results added, the best case this week is 92 in 100 and the worst case is 90.

Can the Broncos clinch a playoff spot this week?

No. The Broncos cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Broncos be eliminated this week?

No. The Broncos cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Who should Broncos fans root for this week?

Besides their own game, the results that help the Broncos most in week 10 are the Seahawks over the Raiders.

Who do the Broncos play next?

Next they play vs the Raiders on Sun, Nov 22. A win lifts the chance to 97 in 100. A loss drops it to 82.

Can the Broncos still win the AFC West?

The Broncos win the AFC West in 41 of 100. They are 2nd in the AFC West, level with the Chiefs but behind on a tiebreaker.

What are the Broncos Super Bowl chances?

The Broncos reach the Super Bowl in 8 of every 100 seasons we play out and win it in 4.

How hard is the Broncos remaining schedule?

The Broncos have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 30-42, the 31st hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

More playoff chances