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Updated · Week 10 · 50,000 seasons played out

San Francisco 49ers playoff chances

The 49ers make the playoffs in 97 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 97% chance as of week 10.

SF San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers make the playoffs in 97 of every 100 seasons we play out. At 7-1 they hold the NFC 1st seed today.

  • 7-1Record
  • 1stin the NFC today
  • 87in 100 win the NFC West
  • +1since last week

Next game at the Cowboys

PLAYOFFS10203040504030201097in 100

The ball shows how far the 49ers are from the playoffs. The end zone is 100 in 100.

100 seasons, one dot each

  • 87 win the NFC West
  • 10 get in as a wild card
  • 3 miss the playoffs

Chance after each weekUp 33 since week 1

100500Wk 1Wk 4Wk 7Now97

What the 49ers need to make the playoffs

Magic number77 more wins put the 49ers in the playoffs, whatever any other team does. 6 more wins could be enough if a tiebreaker goes their way.
NFC West magic number77 more wins give the 49ers the NFC West title, whatever any other team does. 6 more wins could be enough if a tiebreaker goes their way.
Elimination numberNot yetThe 49ers cannot be knocked out by their own results yet. Even if they lose all 9 games they have left, there is still a way in.

These three are proved, not played out: we check every way the season can still finish. How the proof works

If they win every game left, they are in. Each row is a final record and how often it was enough.

  1. 12-5 or better99+ in 100Most likely finish. Happens 78 times in 100
  2. 11-699 in 100Happens 13 times in 100
  3. 10-781 in 100Happens 6 times in 100
  4. 9-827 in 100Happens 2 times in 100
  5. 8-92 in 100Happens 1 time in 100

49ers playoff scenarios for week 10

This week at Cowboys Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 PM ET

If they win99
Today97
If they lose93

It matters. Winning instead of losing is worth 6 in 100. The 49ers win this game 60 times in 100.

Best and worst case this week

Best week9949ers beat Cowboys
Worst week92Cowboys beat 49ers

49ers clinching scenarios for week 10

No. The 49ers cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the 49ers be eliminated in week 10?

No. The 49ers cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Every answer here is proved from the results still possible, with the league's tiebreakers through conference record. Clinching scenarios for every team

Who 49ers fans should root for in week 10

No other game this week moves the 49ers by more than 1 in 100.

Try your own 49ers playoff scenarios

Tap a result. We replay the season 6,000 times on your device and move the ball.

49ers games left

  1. Wk 10at CowboysSun, Nov 15 · wins 60 in 100
  2. Wk 11vs VikingsSun, Nov 22 · wins 52 in 100
  3. Wk 12vs SeahawksSun, Nov 29 · wins 63 in 100
  4. Wk 13at GiantsSun, Dec 6 · wins 63 in 100
  5. Wk 14vs RamsSun, Dec 13 · wins 65 in 100
  6. Wk 15at ChargersThu, Dec 17 · wins 77 in 100
  7. Wk 16at ChiefsSun, Dec 27 · wins 45 in 100
  8. Wk 17vs EaglesSun, Jan 3 · wins 82 in 100
  9. Wk 18at CardinalsSun, Jan 10 · wins 72 in 100

Other games in week 10

  1. Rams at CardinalsSun, Nov 15
  2. Seahawks at RaidersSun, Nov 15
  3. Steelers at BengalsSun, Nov 15
  4. Chargers at RavensMon, Nov 16

49ers playoff picture today

The 49ers are 7-1 and hold the NFC 1st seed. They are 2.5 games ahead of the Seahawks, the first team outside the playoff places.

They lead the NFC West by 2.5 games over the Seahawks.

If the playoffs started today, the 49ers would rest in round one and play every NFC playoff game at home.

Last 5:WWWLWThey won their last game.

Our strength rating puts them 3rd of 32, 5.0 points better than an average team. The 49ers made the playoffs in 4 of the last 5 seasons (2021, 2022, 2023, 2025).

See every seed in the NFC playoff picture and today's playoff bracket.

NFC West standings

TeamRecordIn divisionPlayoffsWin division
SF 49ers7-13-09787
SEA Seahawks5-42-1448
LAR Rams5-40-2354
ARI Cardinals3-61-32<1

49ers playoff odds by seed

How often each seed came up, out of 100 seasons.

  1. 1st seed bye week40
  2. 2nd seed43
  3. 3rd seed4
  4. 4th seed last home game1
  5. 5th seed2
  6. 6th seed3
  7. 7th seed4
  8. Miss the playoffs3

How far the 49ers can go

The 49ers playoff odds for each round, out of 100. We play the bracket in every season, up to the Super Bowl.

  1. Make the playoffs97in 100
  2. Reach the divisional round73in 100
  3. Reach the conference title game44in 100
  4. Reach the Super Bowl25in 100
  5. Win the Super Bowl12in 100

49ers remaining schedule

The 49ers have 9 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 38-41-1, the 23rd hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

WeekDateOpponentTheir recordChance to win
10Sun, Nov 15at Cowboys4-5 60 in 100
11Sun, Nov 22vs Vikings neutral site7-2 52 in 100
12Sun, Nov 29vs Seahawks5-4 63 in 100
13Sun, Dec 6at Giants5-3-1 63 in 100
14Sun, Dec 13vs Rams5-4 65 in 100
15Thu, Dec 17at Chargers0-8 77 in 100
16Sun, Dec 27at Chiefs7-2 45 in 100
17Sun, Jan 3vs Eagles2-7 82 in 100
18Sun, Jan 10at Cardinals3-6 72 in 100

Every game this week, with kickoff times in your own time zone, is on the NFL games this week page. The 49ers bye is in week 8. Every team's week off is in our guide to NFL bye weeks 2026.

49ers results and how their playoff chances moved

Each row shows the playoff chance once that week was complete.

WeekDateOpponentResultPlayoff chance after
1Thu, Sep 10vs RamsWon 27 to 764 in 100
2Sun, Sep 20vs DolphinsWon 35 to 1380 in 100 +16
3Sun, Sep 27vs CardinalsWon 36 to 3084 in 100 +4
4Sun, Oct 4vs BroncosWon 24 to 1488 in 100 +4
5Sun, Oct 11at SeahawksWon 32 to 2995 in 100 +7
6Mon, Oct 19vs CommandersWon 23 to 1797 in 100 +2
7Sun, Oct 25at FalconsLost 20 to 2995 in 100 -2
9Sun, Nov 8vs RaidersWon 38 to 1796 in 100 +3

How we got these numbers

Three steps, run again after every game window.

  1. Rate every teamWe rate every team from the points in its games so far.
  2. Play out the seasonEvery game left is played out 50,000 times.
  3. Seed every seasonEach of those seasons is seeded with the real NFL tiebreakers.

The result

SF 97 in 100

The 49ers made the playoffs in 97 of every 100 seasons.

Clinched and eliminated are proved, not played out. They and the magic numbers are worked out another way. They are proved from every result still possible, so they are certain, not likely. How the proof works

✓Checked Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET. Our seeding matches the official standings for 32 of 32 teams. How it works

49ers playoff questions

What are the 49ers playoff chances right now?

The 49ers make the playoffs in 97 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 97% chance. At 7-1 they hold the NFC 1st seed today. That is up 1 from last week. Updated Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET.

Can the 49ers still make the playoffs?

Yes. The 49ers make the playoffs 97 times in 100 in our runs. They are 2.5 games ahead of the Seahawks, the first team outside the playoff places.

What do the 49ers need to make the playoffs?

In our runs a final record of 10-7 got in 81 times in 100 and 9-8 got in 27 times in 100. If they win every game left, they are in.

Are the 49ers eliminated from the playoffs?

No. The 49ers are not eliminated. The 49ers cannot be knocked out by their own results yet. Even if they lose all 9 games they have left, there is still a way in. They are 2.5 games ahead of the Seahawks, the first team outside the playoff places.

What is the 49ers magic number?

The 49ers magic number is 7. 7 more wins put the 49ers in the playoffs, whatever any other team does. 6 more wins could be enough if a tiebreaker goes their way. 7 more wins give the 49ers the NFC West title, whatever any other team does. 6 more wins could be enough if a tiebreaker goes their way.

What are the 49ers playoff scenarios for week 10?

The 49ers play at the Cowboys on Sun, Nov 15. A win lifts their chance to 99 in 100 and a loss drops it to 93. With the other key results added, the best case this week is 99 in 100 and the worst case is 92.

Can the 49ers clinch a playoff spot this week?

No. The 49ers cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the 49ers be eliminated this week?

No. The 49ers cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Who should 49ers fans root for this week?

No other game in week 10 moves the 49ers by more than 1 in 100.

Who do the 49ers play next?

Next they play at the Cowboys on Sun, Nov 15. A win lifts the chance to 99 in 100. A loss drops it to 93.

Can the 49ers still win the NFC West?

The 49ers win the NFC West in 87 of 100. They lead the NFC West by 2.5 games over the Seahawks.

What are the 49ers Super Bowl chances?

The 49ers reach the Super Bowl in 25 of every 100 seasons we play out and win it in 12.

How hard is the 49ers remaining schedule?

The 49ers have 9 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 38-41-1, the 23rd hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

More playoff chances