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Updated · Week 10 · 50,000 seasons played out

Arizona Cardinals playoff chances

The Cardinals make the playoffs in 2 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 2% chance as of week 10.

ARI Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals make the playoffs in 2 of every 100 seasons we play out. At 3-6 they sit 13th in the NFC, 6 spots outside the playoff places.

  • 3-6Record
  • 13thin the NFC today
  • <1in 100 win the NFC West
  • 0since last week

Next game vs the Rams

PLAYOFFS1020304050403020102in 100

The ball shows how far the Cardinals are from the playoffs. The end zone is 100 in 100.

100 seasons, one dot each

  • 0 win the NFC West
  • 2 get in as a wild card
  • 98 miss the playoffs

Chance after each weekDown 55 since week 1

100500Wk 1Wk 4Wk 7Now2

What the Cardinals need to make the playoffs

Magic numberNeeds helpThe Cardinals cannot lock up a playoff spot on their own. Even if they win all 8 games they have left, other results could keep them out.
NFC West magic numberNeeds helpThe Cardinals cannot win the NFC West on their own. Even if they win all 8 games they have left, they need another team to slip.
Elimination number55 more losses knock the Cardinals out, whatever else happens.

These three are proved, not played out: we check every way the season can still finish. How the proof works

If they win every game left, they get in 87 times in 100. Each row is a final record and how often it was enough.

  1. 10-746 in 100Happens 2 times in 100
  2. 9-88 in 100Happens 6 times in 100
  3. 8-9 or worse<1 in 100Most likely finish. Happens 92 times in 100

Cardinals playoff scenarios for week 10

This week vs Rams Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 PM ET

If they win4
Today2
If they lose<1

A small swing. Winning instead of losing is worth 4 in 100. The Cardinals win this game 37 times in 100.

Best and worst case this week

Best week4Cardinals beat Rams
Worst week<1Rams beat Cardinals

Cardinals clinching scenarios for week 10

No. The Cardinals cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Cardinals be eliminated in week 10?

No. The Cardinals cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Every answer here is proved from the results still possible, with the league's tiebreakers through conference record. Clinching scenarios for every team

Who Cardinals fans should root for in week 10

No other game this week moves the Cardinals by more than 1 in 100.

Try your own Cardinals playoff scenarios

Tap a result. We replay the season 6,000 times on your device and move the ball.

Cardinals games left

  1. Wk 10vs RamsSun, Nov 15 · wins 37 in 100
  2. Wk 11at ChiefsSun, Nov 22 · wins 20 in 100
  3. Wk 12vs CommandersSun, Nov 29 · wins 49 in 100
  4. Wk 13vs EaglesSun, Dec 6 · wins 58 in 100
  5. Wk 15vs JetsSun, Dec 20 · wins 53 in 100
  6. Wk 16at SaintsSun, Dec 27 · wins 40 in 100
  7. Wk 17vs RaidersSun, Jan 3 · wins 47 in 100
  8. Wk 18vs 49ersSun, Jan 10 · wins 28 in 100

Other games in week 10

  1. Seahawks at RaidersSun, Nov 15
  2. 49ers at CowboysSun, Nov 15
  3. Steelers at BengalsSun, Nov 15
  4. Chargers at RavensMon, Nov 16

Cardinals playoff picture today

The Cardinals are 3-6 and sit 13th in the NFC. They are 2.5 games behind the Packers, who hold the last playoff place.

They are 4th in the NFC West, 4.5 games behind the 49ers.

If the playoffs started today, the Cardinals would miss out.

Last 5:LWLWLThey lost their last game.

Our strength rating puts them 29th of 32, 4.5 points worse than an average team. The Cardinals made the playoffs in 1 of the last 5 seasons (2021).

See every seed in the NFC playoff picture and today's playoff bracket.

NFC West standings

TeamRecordIn divisionPlayoffsWin division
SF 49ers7-13-09787
SEA Seahawks5-42-1448
LAR Rams5-40-2354
ARI Cardinals3-61-32<1

Cardinals playoff odds by seed

How often each seed came up, out of 100 seasons.

  1. 1st seed bye week<1
  2. 2nd seed<1
  3. 3rd seed<1
  4. 4th seed last home game<1
  5. 5th seed<1
  6. 6th seed<1
  7. 7th seed1
  8. Miss the playoffs98

How far the Cardinals can go

The Cardinals playoff odds for each round, out of 100. We play the bracket in every season, up to the Super Bowl.

  1. Make the playoffs2in 100
  2. Reach the divisional round1in 100
  3. Reach the conference title game<1in 100
  4. Reach the Super Bowl<1in 100
  5. Win the Super Bowl<1in 100

Cardinals remaining schedule

The Cardinals have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 33-38-1, the 28th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

WeekDateOpponentTheir recordChance to win
10Sun, Nov 15vs Rams5-4 37 in 100
11Sun, Nov 22at Chiefs7-2 20 in 100
12Sun, Nov 29vs Commanders3-5-1 49 in 100
13Sun, Dec 6vs Eagles2-7 58 in 100
15Sun, Dec 20vs Jets2-8 53 in 100
16Sun, Dec 27at Saints3-6 40 in 100
17Sun, Jan 3vs Raiders4-5 47 in 100
18Sun, Jan 10vs 49ers7-1 28 in 100

Every game this week, with kickoff times in your own time zone, is on the NFL games this week page. The Cardinals bye is in week 14. Every team's week off is in our guide to NFL bye weeks 2026.

Cardinals results and how their playoff chances moved

Each row shows the playoff chance once that week was complete.

WeekDateOpponentResultPlayoff chance after
1Sun, Sep 13at ChargersWon 26 to 1457 in 100
2Sun, Sep 20vs SeahawksLost 7 to 3121 in 100 -36
3Sun, Sep 27at 49ersLost 30 to 3621 in 100
4Sun, Oct 4at GiantsLost 24 to 3612 in 100 -9
5Sun, Oct 11vs LionsLost 21 to 454 in 100 -8
6Sun, Oct 18at RamsWon 18 to 167 in 100 +3
7Sun, Oct 25vs BroncosLost 16 to 303 in 100 -4
8Sun, Nov 1at CowboysWon 33 to 305 in 100 +2
9Sun, Nov 8at SeahawksLost 3 to 172 in 100 -3

If the Cardinals miss the playoffs: draft position

  • 98in 100 miss the playoffs
  • No. 9average first round pick
  • 19in 100 get a top 5 pick
  • <1in 100 get the first pick

If the Cardinals miss the playoffs, their own first round pick lands at about No. 9 on average. They end up with a top 5 pick in 19 of 100 seasons.

Picks 1 to 18 go to the teams that miss the playoffs, worst record first. Trades are not included.

Tiebreakers in play for the Cardinals

These ties are being broken in today's standings.

  • BehindTB The Buccaneers are ahead of ARI the Cardinals on conference record.
  • AheadARI The Cardinals are ahead of NO the Saints on conference record.

The steps follow the league's tiebreaking procedures. See every step or read our guide to NFL tiebreakers.

How we got these numbers

Three steps, run again after every game window.

  1. Rate every teamWe rate every team from the points in its games so far.
  2. Play out the seasonEvery game left is played out 50,000 times.
  3. Seed every seasonEach of those seasons is seeded with the real NFL tiebreakers.

The result

ARI 2 in 100

The Cardinals made the playoffs in 2 of every 100 seasons.

Clinched and eliminated are proved, not played out. They and the magic numbers are worked out another way. They are proved from every result still possible, so they are certain, not likely. How the proof works

✓Checked Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET. Our seeding matches the official standings for 32 of 32 teams. How it works

Cardinals playoff questions

What are the Cardinals playoff chances right now?

The Cardinals make the playoffs in 2 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 2% chance. At 3-6 they sit 13th in the NFC, 6 spots outside the playoff places. Updated Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET.

Can the Cardinals still make the playoffs?

Yes, but they need things to go their way. The Cardinals make the playoffs 2 times in 100 in our runs. They are 2.5 games behind the Packers, who hold the last playoff place. If they win every game left, they get in 87 times in 100.

What do the Cardinals need to make the playoffs?

In our runs a final record of 10-7 got in 46 times in 100 and 9-8 got in 8 times in 100. If they win every game left, they get in 87 times in 100.

Are the Cardinals eliminated from the playoffs?

No. The Cardinals are not eliminated. 5 more losses knock the Cardinals out, whatever else happens. They are 2.5 games behind the Packers, who hold the last playoff place.

What is the Cardinals magic number?

The Cardinals do not have a magic number yet. The Cardinals cannot lock up a playoff spot on their own. Even if they win all 8 games they have left, other results could keep them out. The Cardinals cannot win the NFC West on their own. Even if they win all 8 games they have left, they need another team to slip.

What are the Cardinals playoff scenarios for week 10?

The Cardinals play vs the Rams on Sun, Nov 15. A win lifts their chance to 4 in 100 and a loss drops it to fewer than 1. With the other key results added, the best case this week is 4 in 100 and the worst case is fewer than 1.

Can the Cardinals clinch a playoff spot this week?

No. The Cardinals cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Cardinals be eliminated this week?

No. The Cardinals cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Who should Cardinals fans root for this week?

No other game in week 10 moves the Cardinals by more than 1 in 100.

Who do the Cardinals play next?

Next they play vs the Rams on Sun, Nov 15. A win lifts the chance to 4 in 100. A loss drops it to fewer than 1.

Can the Cardinals still win the NFC West?

The Cardinals win the NFC West in fewer than 1 of 100. They are 4th in the NFC West, 4.5 games behind the 49ers.

What are the Cardinals Super Bowl chances?

The Cardinals reach the Super Bowl in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons we play out and win it in fewer than 1.

How hard is the Cardinals remaining schedule?

The Cardinals have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 33-38-1, the 28th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

More playoff chances