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Updated · Week 10 · 50,000 seasons played out

Washington Commanders playoff chances

The Commanders make the playoffs in 13 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 13% chance as of week 10.

WSH Washington Commanders

The Commanders make the playoffs in 13 of every 100 seasons we play out. At 3-5-1 they sit 11th in the NFC, 4 spots outside the playoff places.

  • 3-5-1Record
  • 11thin the NFC today
  • 12in 100 win the NFC East
  • +7since last week

Next game vs the Bengals (week 11)

PLAYOFFS102030405040302010last week13in 100

The ball shows how far the Commanders are from the playoffs. The end zone is 100 in 100.

100 seasons, one dot each

  • 12 win the NFC East
  • 1 get in as a wild card
  • 87 miss the playoffs

Chance after each weekDown 24 since week 1

100500Wk 1Wk 4Wk 7Now13

What the Commanders need to make the playoffs

Magic numberNeeds helpThe Commanders cannot lock up a playoff spot on their own. Even if they win all 8 games they have left, other results could keep them out.
NFC East magic numberNeeds helpThe Commanders cannot win the NFC East on their own. Even if they win all 8 games they have left, they need another team to slip.
Elimination number77 more losses knock the Commanders out, whatever else happens.

These three are proved, not played out: we check every way the season can still finish. How the proof works

If they win every game left, they are in. Each row is a final record and how often it was enough.

  1. 10-6-198 in 100Happens 2 times in 100
  2. 9-7-173 in 100Happens 6 times in 100
  3. 8-8-132 in 100Happens 14 times in 100
  4. 7-9-17 in 100Happens 22 times in 100
  5. 6-10-11 in 100Most likely finish. Happens 25 times in 100
  6. 5-11-1 or worse<1 in 100Happens 30 times in 100

Commanders playoff scenarios for week 10

Next game, week 11 vs Bengals Mon, Nov 23, 8:15 PM ET

If they win24
Today13
If they lose7

A big game. Winning instead of losing is worth 16 in 100. The Commanders win this game 33 times in 100.

The Commanders do not play in week 10.

Best and worst case this week

Best week1549ers beat Cowboys
Worst week11Cowboys beat 49ers

Commanders clinching scenarios for week 10

No. The Commanders cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Commanders be eliminated in week 10?

No. The Commanders cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Every answer here is proved from the results still possible, with the league's tiebreakers through conference record. Clinching scenarios for every team

Who Commanders fans should root for in week 10

  1. SF49ersover the Cowboys Sun, Nov 15+5

The number is how much a result helps, in chances out of 100. Swings under 1.5 are left out because they are too small to trust.

Try your own Commanders playoff scenarios

Tap a result. We replay the season 6,000 times on your device and move the ball.

Commanders games left

  1. Wk 11vs BengalsMon, Nov 23 · wins 33 in 100
  2. Wk 12at CardinalsSun, Nov 29 · wins 51 in 100
  3. Wk 13at TitansSun, Dec 6 · wins 55 in 100
  4. Wk 14vs TexansSun, Dec 13 · wins 45 in 100
  5. Wk 15vs FalconsSun, Dec 20 · wins 55 in 100
  6. Wk 16at VikingsSun, Dec 27 · wins 26 in 100
  7. Wk 17at JaguarsSun, Jan 3 · wins 20 in 100
  8. Wk 18vs CowboysSun, Jan 10 · wins 48 in 100

Other games in week 10

  1. Rams at CardinalsSun, Nov 15
  2. Seahawks at RaidersSun, Nov 15
  3. 49ers at CowboysSun, Nov 15
  4. Steelers at BengalsSun, Nov 15
  5. Chargers at RavensMon, Nov 16

Commanders playoff picture today

The Commanders are 3-5-1 and sit 11th in the NFC. They are 2 games behind the Packers, who hold the last playoff place.

They are 3rd in the NFC East, 2 games behind the Giants.

If the playoffs started today, the Commanders would miss out.

Last 5:TLWLWThey won their last game.

Our strength rating puts them 23rd of 32, 2.5 points worse than an average team. The Commanders made the playoffs in 1 of the last 5 seasons (2024).

See every seed in the NFC playoff picture and today's playoff bracket.

NFC East standings

TeamRecordIn divisionPlayoffsWin division
NYG Giants5-3-12-1-15957
DAL Cowboys4-52-13330
WSH Commanders3-5-12-2-11312
PHI Eagles2-71-311

Commanders playoff odds by seed

How often each seed came up, out of 100 seasons.

  1. 1st seed bye week<1
  2. 2nd seed<1
  3. 3rd seed6
  4. 4th seed last home game6
  5. 5th seed<1
  6. 6th seed<1
  7. 7th seed1
  8. Miss the playoffs87

How far the Commanders can go

The Commanders playoff odds for each round, out of 100. We play the bracket in every season, up to the Super Bowl.

  1. Make the playoffs13in 100
  2. Reach the divisional round6in 100
  3. Reach the conference title game2in 100
  4. Reach the Super Bowl1in 100
  5. Win the Super Bowl<1in 100

Commanders remaining schedule

The Commanders have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 34-38, the 27th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

WeekDateOpponentTheir recordChance to win
11Mon, Nov 23vs Bengals6-2 33 in 100
12Sun, Nov 29at Cardinals3-6 51 in 100
13Sun, Dec 6at Titans1-8 55 in 100
14Sun, Dec 13vs Texans3-6 45 in 100
15Sun, Dec 20vs Falcons3-7 55 in 100
16Sun, Dec 27at Vikings7-2 26 in 100
17Sun, Jan 3at Jaguars7-2 20 in 100
18Sun, Jan 10vs Cowboys4-5 48 in 100

Every game this week, with kickoff times in your own time zone, is on the NFL games this week page. The Commanders bye is in week 7. Every team's week off is in our guide to NFL bye weeks 2026.

Commanders results and how their playoff chances moved

Each row shows the playoff chance once that week was complete.

WeekDateOpponentResultPlayoff chance after
1Sun, Sep 13at EaglesLost 22 to 2437 in 100
2Sun, Sep 20at CowboysLost 20 to 3719 in 100 -18
3Sun, Sep 27vs SeahawksWon 33 to 3126 in 100 +7
4Sun, Oct 4vs ColtsLost 13 to 3012 in 100 -14
5Sun, Oct 11vs GiantsTied 27 to 2713 in 100 +1
6Mon, Oct 19at 49ersLost 17 to 2312 in 100 -1
8Sun, Nov 1vs EaglesWon 27 to 1015 in 100 +6
9Sun, Nov 8vs RamsLost 13 to 206 in 100 -9
10Thu, Nov 12at GiantsWon 24 to 21week not finished

If the Commanders miss the playoffs: draft position

  • 87in 100 miss the playoffs
  • No. 10average first round pick
  • 12in 100 get a top 5 pick
  • <1in 100 get the first pick

If the Commanders miss the playoffs, their own first round pick lands at about No. 10 on average. They end up with a top 5 pick in 12 of 100 seasons.

Picks 1 to 18 go to the teams that miss the playoffs, worst record first. Trades are not included.

How we got these numbers

Three steps, run again after every game window.

  1. Rate every teamWe rate every team from the points in its games so far.
  2. Play out the seasonEvery game left is played out 50,000 times.
  3. Seed every seasonEach of those seasons is seeded with the real NFL tiebreakers.

The result

WSH 13 in 100

The Commanders made the playoffs in 13 of every 100 seasons.

Clinched and eliminated are proved, not played out. They and the magic numbers are worked out another way. They are proved from every result still possible, so they are certain, not likely. How the proof works

✓Checked Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET. Our seeding matches the official standings for 32 of 32 teams. How it works

Commanders playoff questions

What are the Commanders playoff chances right now?

The Commanders make the playoffs in 13 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 13% chance. At 3-5-1 they sit 11th in the NFC, 4 spots outside the playoff places. That is up 7 from last week. Updated Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET.

Can the Commanders still make the playoffs?

Yes, but they need things to go their way. The Commanders make the playoffs 13 times in 100 in our runs. They are 2 games behind the Packers, who hold the last playoff place. If they win every game left, they are in.

What do the Commanders need to make the playoffs?

In our runs a final record of 9-7-1 got in 73 times in 100, 8-8-1 got in 32 times in 100 and 7-9-1 got in 7 times in 100. If they win every game left, they are in.

Are the Commanders eliminated from the playoffs?

No. The Commanders are not eliminated. 7 more losses knock the Commanders out, whatever else happens. They are 2 games behind the Packers, who hold the last playoff place.

What is the Commanders magic number?

The Commanders do not have a magic number yet. The Commanders cannot lock up a playoff spot on their own. Even if they win all 8 games they have left, other results could keep them out. The Commanders cannot win the NFC East on their own. Even if they win all 8 games they have left, they need another team to slip.

What are the Commanders playoff scenarios for week 10?

The Commanders do not play in week 10. Their next game is vs the Bengals on Mon, Nov 23. With the other key results added, the best case this week is 15 in 100 and the worst case is 11.

Can the Commanders clinch a playoff spot this week?

No. The Commanders cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Commanders be eliminated this week?

No. The Commanders cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Who should Commanders fans root for this week?

Besides their own game, the results that help the Commanders most in week 10 are the 49ers over the Cowboys.

Who do the Commanders play next?

Next they play vs the Bengals on Mon, Nov 23. A win lifts the chance to 24 in 100. A loss drops it to 7.

Can the Commanders still win the NFC East?

The Commanders win the NFC East in 12 of 100. They are 3rd in the NFC East, 2 games behind the Giants.

What are the Commanders Super Bowl chances?

The Commanders reach the Super Bowl in 1 of every 100 seasons we play out and win it in fewer than 1.

How hard is the Commanders remaining schedule?

The Commanders have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 34-38, the 27th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

More playoff chances