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Updated · Week 10 · 50,000 seasons played out

New York Jets playoff chances

The Jets make the playoffs in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is less than a 1% chance as of week 10.

NYJ New York Jets

The Jets make the playoffs in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons we play out. At 2-8 they sit 13th in the AFC, 6 spots outside the playoff places.

  • 2-8Record
  • 13thin the AFC today
  • <1in 100 win the AFC East
  • -1since last week

Next game at the Chargers (week 11)

PLAYOFFS102030405040302010<1in 100

The ball shows how far the Jets are from the playoffs. The end zone is 100 in 100.

100 seasons, one dot each

  • 0 win the AFC East
  • 0 get in as a wild card
  • 100 miss the playoffs

Chance after each weekDown 62 since week 1

100500Wk 1Wk 4Wk 7Now<1

What the Jets need to make the playoffs

Magic numberNeeds helpThe Jets cannot lock up a playoff spot on their own. Even if they win all 7 games they have left, other results could keep them out.
AFC East magic numberNeeds helpThe Jets cannot win the AFC East on their own. Even if they win all 7 games they have left, they need another team to slip.
Elimination number44 more losses knock the Jets out, whatever else happens.

These three are proved, not played out: we check every way the season can still finish. How the proof works

If they win every game left, they get in 37 times in 100. Each row is a final record and how often it was enough.

  1. 8-94 in 100Happens 3 times in 100
  2. 7-10 or worse<1 in 100Most likely finish. Happens 97 times in 100

Jets playoff scenarios for week 10

Next game, week 11 at Chargers Sun, Nov 22, 4:05 PM ET

If they win<1
Today<1
If they lose<1

A small swing. Winning instead of losing is worth 0 in 100. The Jets win this game 54 times in 100.

The Jets do not play in week 10.

Jets clinching scenarios for week 10

No. The Jets cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Jets be eliminated in week 10?

No. The Jets cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Every answer here is proved from the results still possible, with the league's tiebreakers through conference record. Clinching scenarios for every team

Who Jets fans should root for in week 10

No other game this week moves the Jets by more than 1 in 100.

Try your own Jets playoff scenarios

Tap a result. We replay the season 6,000 times on your device and move the ball.

Jets games left

  1. Wk 11at ChargersSun, Nov 22 · wins 54 in 100
  2. Wk 12at DolphinsSun, Nov 29 · wins 47 in 100
  3. Wk 14vs BroncosSun, Dec 13 · wins 38 in 100
  4. Wk 15at CardinalsSun, Dec 20 · wins 47 in 100
  5. Wk 16vs PatriotsSun, Dec 27 · wins 44 in 100
  6. Wk 17vs VikingsSun, Jan 3 · wins 32 in 100
  7. Wk 18at BillsSun, Jan 10 · wins 20 in 100

Other games in week 10

  1. Rams at CardinalsSun, Nov 15
  2. Seahawks at RaidersSun, Nov 15
  3. 49ers at CowboysSun, Nov 15
  4. Steelers at BengalsSun, Nov 15
  5. Chargers at RavensMon, Nov 16

Jets playoff picture today

The Jets are 2-8 and sit 13th in the AFC. They are 4 games behind the Browns, who hold the last playoff place.

They are 3rd in the AFC East, 6.5 games behind the Bills.

If the playoffs started today, the Jets would miss out.

Last 5:LLLLLThey have lost 5 in a row.

Our strength rating puts them 27th of 32, 3.7 points worse than an average team. The Jets missed the playoffs in each of the last 5 seasons.

See every seed in the AFC playoff picture and today's playoff bracket.

AFC East standings

TeamRecordIn divisionPlayoffsWin division
BUF Bills8-11-199+97
NE Patriots5-53-0413
NYJ Jets2-80-3<1<1
MIA Dolphins1-81-1<1<1

Jets playoff odds by seed

How often each seed came up, out of 100 seasons.

  1. 1st seed bye week<1
  2. 2nd seed<1
  3. 3rd seed<1
  4. 4th seed last home game<1
  5. 5th seed<1
  6. 6th seed<1
  7. 7th seed<1
  8. Miss the playoffs99+

How far the Jets can go

The Jets playoff odds for each round, out of 100. We play the bracket in every season, up to the Super Bowl.

  1. Make the playoffs<1in 100
  2. Reach the divisional round<1in 100
  3. Reach the conference title game<1in 100
  4. Reach the Super Bowl<1in 100
  5. Win the Super Bowl<1in 100

Jets remaining schedule

The Jets have 7 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 31-32, the 20th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

WeekDateOpponentTheir recordChance to win
11Sun, Nov 22at Chargers0-8 54 in 100
12Sun, Nov 29at Dolphins1-8 47 in 100
14Sun, Dec 13vs Broncos7-2 38 in 100
15Sun, Dec 20at Cardinals3-6 47 in 100
16Sun, Dec 27vs Patriots5-5 44 in 100
17Sun, Jan 3vs Vikings7-2 32 in 100
18Sun, Jan 10at Bills8-1 20 in 100

Every game this week, with kickoff times in your own time zone, is on the NFL games this week page. The Jets bye is in week 13. Every team's week off is in our guide to NFL bye weeks 2026.

Jets results and how their playoff chances moved

Each row shows the playoff chance once that week was complete.

WeekDateOpponentResultPlayoff chance after
1Sun, Sep 13at TitansWon 23 to 1062 in 100
2Sun, Sep 20vs PackersLost 17 to 2050 in 100 -12
3Sun, Sep 27at LionsLost 24 to 3134 in 100 -16
4Sun, Oct 4at BearsLost 12 to 2330 in 100 -4
5Sun, Oct 11vs BrownsWon 17 to 1231 in 100 +1
6Sun, Oct 18at PatriotsLost 19 to 2624 in 100 -7
7Sun, Oct 25vs DolphinsLost 25 to 2812 in 100 -12
8Sun, Nov 1vs RaidersLost 33 to 384 in 100 -8
9Sun, Nov 8at ChiefsLost 12 to 351 in 100 -3
10Sun, Nov 15vs BillsLost 12 to 31week not finished

If the Jets miss the playoffs: draft position

  • 99+in 100 miss the playoffs
  • No. 6average first round pick
  • 55in 100 get a top 5 pick
  • 5in 100 get the first pick

If the Jets miss the playoffs, their own first round pick lands at about No. 6 on average. They end up with the first overall pick in 5 of 100 seasons and with a top 5 pick in 55.

Picks 1 to 18 go to the teams that miss the playoffs, worst record first. Trades are not included.

How we got these numbers

Three steps, run again after every game window.

  1. Rate every teamWe rate every team from the points in its games so far.
  2. Play out the seasonEvery game left is played out 50,000 times.
  3. Seed every seasonEach of those seasons is seeded with the real NFL tiebreakers.

The result

NYJ <1 in 100

The Jets made the playoffs in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons.

Clinched and eliminated are proved, not played out. They and the magic numbers are worked out another way. They are proved from every result still possible, so they are certain, not likely. How the proof works

✓Checked Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET. Our seeding matches the official standings for 32 of 32 teams. How it works

Jets playoff questions

What are the Jets playoff chances right now?

The Jets make the playoffs in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is less than a 1% chance. At 2-8 they sit 13th in the AFC, 6 spots outside the playoff places. That is down 1 from last week. Updated Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET.

Can the Jets still make the playoffs?

Only just. The Jets made the playoffs in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons we played out. They are 4 games behind the Browns, who hold the last playoff place. If they win every game left, they get in 37 times in 100.

What do the Jets need to make the playoffs?

In our runs a final record of 8-9 got in 4 times in 100. If they win every game left, they get in 37 times in 100.

Are the Jets eliminated from the playoffs?

No, not yet. The Jets still have a path, but they made the playoffs in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons we played out. 4 more losses knock the Jets out, whatever else happens.

What is the Jets magic number?

The Jets do not have a magic number yet. The Jets cannot lock up a playoff spot on their own. Even if they win all 7 games they have left, other results could keep them out. The Jets cannot win the AFC East on their own. Even if they win all 7 games they have left, they need another team to slip.

What are the Jets playoff scenarios for week 10?

The Jets do not play in week 10. Their next game is at the Chargers on Sun, Nov 22.

Can the Jets clinch a playoff spot this week?

No. The Jets cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Jets be eliminated this week?

No. The Jets cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Who should Jets fans root for this week?

No other game in week 10 moves the Jets by more than 1 in 100.

Who do the Jets play next?

Next they play at the Chargers on Sun, Nov 22. The result barely moves their chance.

Can the Jets still win the AFC East?

The Jets win the AFC East in fewer than 1 of 100. They are 3rd in the AFC East, 6.5 games behind the Bills.

What are the Jets Super Bowl chances?

The Jets reach the Super Bowl in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons we play out and win it in fewer than 1.

How hard is the Jets remaining schedule?

The Jets have 7 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 31-32, the 20th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

More playoff chances