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Updated · Week 10 · 50,000 seasons played out

Miami Dolphins playoff chances

The Dolphins make the playoffs in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is less than a 1% chance as of week 10.

MIA Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins make the playoffs in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons we play out. At 1-8 they sit 14th in the AFC, 7 spots outside the playoff places.

  • 1-8Record
  • 14thin the AFC today
  • <1in 100 win the AFC East
  • 0since last week

Next game at the Bills (week 11)

PLAYOFFS102030405040302010<1in 100

The ball shows how far the Dolphins are from the playoffs. The end zone is 100 in 100.

100 seasons, one dot each

  • 0 win the AFC East
  • 0 get in as a wild card
  • 100 miss the playoffs

Chance after each weekDown 25 since week 1

100500Wk 1Wk 4Wk 7Now<1

What the Dolphins need to make the playoffs

Magic numberNeeds helpThe Dolphins cannot lock up a playoff spot on their own. Even if they win all 8 games they have left, other results could keep them out.
AFC East magic numberNeeds helpThe Dolphins cannot win the AFC East on their own. Even if they win all 8 games they have left, they need another team to slip.
Elimination number44 more losses knock the Dolphins out, whatever else happens. 3 more losses could be enough if tiebreakers go against them.

These three are proved, not played out: we check every way the season can still finish. How the proof works

If they win every game left, they get in 45 times in 100. Each row is a final record and how often it was enough.

  1. 8-94 in 100Happens 1 time in 100
  2. 7-10 or worse<1 in 100Most likely finish. Happens 99 times in 100

Dolphins playoff scenarios for week 10

Next game, week 11 at Bills Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET

If they win<1
Today<1
If they lose<1

A small swing. Winning instead of losing is worth 0 in 100. The Dolphins win this game 18 times in 100.

The Dolphins do not play in week 10.

Dolphins clinching scenarios for week 10

No. The Dolphins cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Dolphins be eliminated in week 10?

No. The Dolphins cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Every answer here is proved from the results still possible, with the league's tiebreakers through conference record. Clinching scenarios for every team

Who Dolphins fans should root for in week 10

No other game this week moves the Dolphins by more than 1 in 100.

Try your own Dolphins playoff scenarios

Tap a result. We replay the season 6,000 times on your device and move the ball.

Dolphins games left

  1. Wk 11at BillsSun, Nov 22 · wins 18 in 100
  2. Wk 12vs JetsSun, Nov 29 · wins 53 in 100
  3. Wk 13at BroncosSun, Dec 6 · wins 27 in 100
  4. Wk 14vs BearsSun, Dec 13 · wins 32 in 100
  5. Wk 15at PackersSun, Dec 20 · wins 30 in 100
  6. Wk 16vs ChargersSun, Dec 27 · wins 62 in 100
  7. Wk 17vs BillsSun, Jan 3 · wins 26 in 100
  8. Wk 18at PatriotsSun, Jan 10 · wins 33 in 100

Other games in week 10

  1. Rams at CardinalsSun, Nov 15
  2. Seahawks at RaidersSun, Nov 15
  3. 49ers at CowboysSun, Nov 15
  4. Steelers at BengalsSun, Nov 15
  5. Chargers at RavensMon, Nov 16

Dolphins playoff picture today

The Dolphins are 1-8 and sit 14th in the AFC. They are 4.5 games behind the Browns, who hold the last playoff place.

They are 4th in the AFC East, 7 games behind the Bills.

If the playoffs started today, the Dolphins would miss out.

Last 5:LWLLLThey have lost 3 in a row.

Our strength rating puts them 28th of 32, 4.3 points worse than an average team. The Dolphins made the playoffs in 2 of the last 5 seasons (2022, 2023).

See every seed in the AFC playoff picture and today's playoff bracket.

AFC East standings

TeamRecordIn divisionPlayoffsWin division
BUF Bills8-11-199+97
NE Patriots5-53-0413
NYJ Jets2-80-3<1<1
MIA Dolphins1-81-1<1<1

Dolphins playoff odds by seed

How often each seed came up, out of 100 seasons.

  1. 1st seed bye week<1
  2. 2nd seed<1
  3. 3rd seed<1
  4. 4th seed last home game<1
  5. 5th seed<1
  6. 6th seed<1
  7. 7th seed<1
  8. Miss the playoffs99+

How far the Dolphins can go

The Dolphins playoff odds for each round, out of 100. We play the bracket in every season, up to the Super Bowl.

  1. Make the playoffs<1in 100
  2. Reach the divisional round<1in 100
  3. Reach the conference title game<1in 100
  4. Reach the Super Bowl<1in 100
  5. Win the Super Bowl<1in 100

Dolphins remaining schedule

The Dolphins have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 43-31, the 2nd hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

WeekDateOpponentTheir recordChance to win
11Sun, Nov 22at Bills8-1 18 in 100
12Sun, Nov 29vs Jets2-8 53 in 100
13Sun, Dec 6at Broncos7-2 27 in 100
14Sun, Dec 13vs Bears7-2 32 in 100
15Sun, Dec 20at Packers6-4 30 in 100
16Sun, Dec 27vs Chargers0-8 62 in 100
17Sun, Jan 3vs Bills8-1 26 in 100
18Sun, Jan 10at Patriots5-5 33 in 100

Every game this week, with kickoff times in your own time zone, is on the NFL games this week page. The Dolphins bye is in week 6. Every team's week off is in our guide to NFL bye weeks 2026.

Dolphins results and how their playoff chances moved

Each row shows the playoff chance once that week was complete.

WeekDateOpponentResultPlayoff chance after
1Sun, Sep 13at RaidersLost 13 to 2725 in 100
2Sun, Sep 20at 49ersLost 13 to 3515 in 100 -10
3Sun, Sep 27vs ChiefsLost 10 to 249 in 100 -6
4Sun, Oct 4at VikingsLost 10 to 158 in 100 -1
5Sun, Oct 11vs BengalsLost 24 to 312 in 100 -6
7Sun, Oct 25at JetsWon 28 to 253 in 100 +1
8Sun, Nov 1vs PatriotsLost 19 to 241 in 100 -2
9Sun, Nov 8vs LionsLost 9 to 19<1 in 100 -1
10Sun, Nov 15at ColtsLost 22 to 24week not finished

If the Dolphins miss the playoffs: draft position

  • 99+in 100 miss the playoffs
  • No. 4average first round pick
  • 71in 100 get a top 5 pick
  • 12in 100 get the first pick

If the Dolphins miss the playoffs, their own first round pick lands at about No. 5 on average. They end up with the first overall pick in 12 of 100 seasons and with a top 5 pick in 71.

Picks 1 to 18 go to the teams that miss the playoffs, worst record first. Trades are not included.

Tiebreakers in play for the Dolphins

These ties are being broken in today's standings.

  • AheadMIA The Dolphins are ahead of TEN the Titans on conference record.

The steps follow the league's tiebreaking procedures. See every step or read our guide to NFL tiebreakers.

How we got these numbers

Three steps, run again after every game window.

  1. Rate every teamWe rate every team from the points in its games so far.
  2. Play out the seasonEvery game left is played out 50,000 times.
  3. Seed every seasonEach of those seasons is seeded with the real NFL tiebreakers.

The result

MIA <1 in 100

The Dolphins made the playoffs in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons.

Clinched and eliminated are proved, not played out. They and the magic numbers are worked out another way. They are proved from every result still possible, so they are certain, not likely. How the proof works

✓Checked Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET. Our seeding matches the official standings for 32 of 32 teams. How it works

Dolphins playoff questions

What are the Dolphins playoff chances right now?

The Dolphins make the playoffs in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is less than a 1% chance. At 1-8 they sit 14th in the AFC, 7 spots outside the playoff places. Updated Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET.

Can the Dolphins still make the playoffs?

Only just. The Dolphins made the playoffs in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons we played out. They are 4.5 games behind the Browns, who hold the last playoff place. If they win every game left, they get in 45 times in 100.

What do the Dolphins need to make the playoffs?

In our runs a final record of 8-9 got in 4 times in 100. If they win every game left, they get in 45 times in 100.

Are the Dolphins eliminated from the playoffs?

No, not yet. The Dolphins still have a path, but they made the playoffs in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons we played out. 4 more losses knock the Dolphins out, whatever else happens. 3 more losses could be enough if tiebreakers go against them.

What is the Dolphins magic number?

The Dolphins do not have a magic number yet. The Dolphins cannot lock up a playoff spot on their own. Even if they win all 8 games they have left, other results could keep them out. The Dolphins cannot win the AFC East on their own. Even if they win all 8 games they have left, they need another team to slip.

What are the Dolphins playoff scenarios for week 10?

The Dolphins do not play in week 10. Their next game is at the Bills on Sun, Nov 22.

Can the Dolphins clinch a playoff spot this week?

No. The Dolphins cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Dolphins be eliminated this week?

No. The Dolphins cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Who should Dolphins fans root for this week?

No other game in week 10 moves the Dolphins by more than 1 in 100.

Who do the Dolphins play next?

Next they play at the Bills on Sun, Nov 22. The result barely moves their chance.

Can the Dolphins still win the AFC East?

The Dolphins win the AFC East in fewer than 1 of 100. They are 4th in the AFC East, 7 games behind the Bills.

What are the Dolphins Super Bowl chances?

The Dolphins reach the Super Bowl in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons we play out and win it in fewer than 1.

How hard is the Dolphins remaining schedule?

The Dolphins have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 43-31, the 2nd hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

More playoff chances