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Updated · Week 10 · 50,000 seasons played out

Baltimore Ravens playoff chances

The Ravens make the playoffs in 10 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 10% chance as of week 10.

BAL Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens make the playoffs in 10 of every 100 seasons we play out. At 4-5 they sit 10th in the AFC, 3 spots outside the playoff places.

  • 4-5Record
  • 10thin the AFC today
  • 1in 100 win the AFC North
  • +1since last week

Next game vs the Chargers

PLAYOFFS10203040504030201010in 100

The ball shows how far the Ravens are from the playoffs. The end zone is 100 in 100.

100 seasons, one dot each

  • 1 win the AFC North
  • 9 get in as a wild card
  • 90 miss the playoffs

Chance after each weekDown 58 since week 1

100500Wk 1Wk 4Wk 7Now10

What the Ravens need to make the playoffs

Magic numberTiebreakWinning all 8 games they have left might be enough for the Ravens, but only if a tiebreaker goes their way. On wins alone they need help.
AFC North magic numberNeeds helpThe Ravens cannot win the AFC North on their own. Even if they win all 8 games they have left, they need another team to slip.
Elimination number77 more losses knock the Ravens out, whatever else happens.

These three are proved, not played out: we check every way the season can still finish. How the proof works

If they win every game left, they are in. Each row is a final record and how often it was enough.

  1. 11-699 in 100Happens 2 times in 100
  2. 10-777 in 100Happens 6 times in 100
  3. 9-824 in 100Happens 13 times in 100
  4. 8-91 in 100Happens 22 times in 100
  5. 7-10 or worse<1 in 100Most likely finish. Happens 57 times in 100

Ravens playoff scenarios for week 10

This week vs Chargers Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 PM ET

If they win13
Today10
If they lose4

It matters. Winning instead of losing is worth 9 in 100. The Ravens win this game 65 times in 100.

Best and worst case this week

Best week14Ravens beat Chargers, Seahawks beat Raiders
Worst week3Chargers beat Ravens, Raiders beat Seahawks

Ravens clinching scenarios for week 10

No. The Ravens cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Ravens be eliminated in week 10?

No. The Ravens cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Every answer here is proved from the results still possible, with the league's tiebreakers through conference record. Clinching scenarios for every team

Who Ravens fans should root for in week 10

  1. SEASeahawksover the Raiders Sun, Nov 15+2

The number is how much a result helps, in chances out of 100. Swings under 1.5 are left out because they are too small to trust.

Try your own Ravens playoff scenarios

Tap a result. We replay the season 6,000 times on your device and move the ball.

Ravens games left

  1. Wk 10vs ChargersMon, Nov 16 · wins 65 in 100
  2. Wk 11at PanthersSun, Nov 22 · wins 39 in 100
  3. Wk 12at TexansSun, Nov 29 · wins 33 in 100
  4. Wk 14vs BuccaneersSun, Dec 13 · wins 40 in 100
  5. Wk 15at SteelersSun, Dec 20 · wins 30 in 100
  6. Wk 16vs BrownsSun, Dec 27 · wins 52 in 100
  7. Wk 17at BengalsThu, Dec 31 · wins 23 in 100
  8. Wk 18vs SteelersSun, Jan 10 · wins 39 in 100

Other games in week 10

  1. Rams at CardinalsSun, Nov 15
  2. Seahawks at RaidersSun, Nov 15
  3. 49ers at CowboysSun, Nov 15
  4. Steelers at BengalsSun, Nov 15

Ravens playoff picture today

The Ravens are 4-5 and sit 10th in the AFC. They are 1.5 games behind the Browns, who hold the last playoff place.

They are 4th in the AFC North, 2.5 games behind the Steelers.

If the playoffs started today, the Ravens would miss out.

Last 5:WLLLLThey have lost 4 in a row.

Our strength rating puts them 25th of 32, 3.1 points worse than an average team. The Ravens made the playoffs in 3 of the last 5 seasons (2022, 2023, 2024).

See every seed in the AFC playoff picture and today's playoff bracket.

AFC North standings

TeamRecordIn divisionPlayoffsWin division
PIT Steelers6-22-18535
CIN Bengals6-21-19458
CLE Browns6-42-1507
BAL Ravens4-50-2101

Ravens playoff odds by seed

How often each seed came up, out of 100 seasons.

  1. 1st seed bye week<1
  2. 2nd seed<1
  3. 3rd seed<1
  4. 4th seed last home game1
  5. 5th seed1
  6. 6th seed3
  7. 7th seed5
  8. Miss the playoffs90

How far the Ravens can go

The Ravens playoff odds for each round, out of 100. We play the bracket in every season, up to the Super Bowl.

  1. Make the playoffs10in 100
  2. Reach the divisional round3in 100
  3. Reach the conference title game1in 100
  4. Reach the Super Bowl<1in 100
  5. Win the Super Bowl<1in 100

Ravens remaining schedule

The Ravens have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 34-35, the 19th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

WeekDateOpponentTheir recordChance to win
10Mon, Nov 16vs Chargers0-8 65 in 100
11Sun, Nov 22at Panthers4-5 39 in 100
12Sun, Nov 29at Texans3-6 33 in 100
14Sun, Dec 13vs Buccaneers3-6 40 in 100
15Sun, Dec 20at Steelers6-2 30 in 100
16Sun, Dec 27vs Browns6-4 52 in 100
17Thu, Dec 31at Bengals6-2 23 in 100
18Sun, Jan 10vs Steelers6-2 39 in 100

Every game this week, with kickoff times in your own time zone, is on the NFL games this week page. The Ravens bye is in week 13. Every team's week off is in our guide to NFL bye weeks 2026.

Ravens results and how their playoff chances moved

Each row shows the playoff chance once that week was complete.

WeekDateOpponentResultPlayoff chance after
1Sun, Sep 13at ColtsWon 41 to 2368 in 100
2Sun, Sep 20vs SaintsLost 17 to 2458 in 100 -10
3Sun, Sep 27vs CowboysWon 34 to 3161 in 100 +3
4Sun, Oct 4vs TitansWon 24 to 1865 in 100 +4
5Sun, Oct 11at FalconsWon 30 to 2368 in 100 +3
6Sun, Oct 18at BrownsLost 10 to 1355 in 100 -13
7Sun, Oct 25vs BengalsLost 13 to 3534 in 100 -21
8Sun, Nov 1at BillsLost 10 to 3616 in 100 -18
9Thu, Nov 5vs JaguarsLost 10 to 339 in 100 -7

If the Ravens miss the playoffs: draft position

  • 90in 100 miss the playoffs
  • No. 11average first round pick
  • 6in 100 get a top 5 pick
  • <1in 100 get the first pick

If the Ravens miss the playoffs, their own first round pick lands at about No. 11 on average. They end up with a top 5 pick in 6 of 100 seasons.

Picks 1 to 18 go to the teams that miss the playoffs, worst record first. Trades are not included.

Tiebreakers in play for the Ravens

These ties are being broken in today's standings.

  • BehindLV The Raiders are ahead of BAL the Ravens on conference record.

The steps follow the league's tiebreaking procedures. See every step or read our guide to NFL tiebreakers.

How we got these numbers

Three steps, run again after every game window.

  1. Rate every teamWe rate every team from the points in its games so far.
  2. Play out the seasonEvery game left is played out 50,000 times.
  3. Seed every seasonEach of those seasons is seeded with the real NFL tiebreakers.

The result

BAL 10 in 100

The Ravens made the playoffs in 10 of every 100 seasons.

Clinched and eliminated are proved, not played out. They and the magic numbers are worked out another way. They are proved from every result still possible, so they are certain, not likely. How the proof works

✓Checked Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET. Our seeding matches the official standings for 32 of 32 teams. How it works

Ravens playoff questions

What are the Ravens playoff chances right now?

The Ravens make the playoffs in 10 of every 100 seasons we play out. That is a 10% chance. At 4-5 they sit 10th in the AFC, 3 spots outside the playoff places. That is up 1 from last week. Updated Nov 15, 4:31 PM ET.

Can the Ravens still make the playoffs?

Yes, but they need things to go their way. The Ravens make the playoffs 10 times in 100 in our runs. They are 1.5 games behind the Browns, who hold the last playoff place. If they win every game left, they are in.

What do the Ravens need to make the playoffs?

In our runs a final record of 10-7 got in 77 times in 100 and 9-8 got in 24 times in 100. If they win every game left, they are in.

Are the Ravens eliminated from the playoffs?

No. The Ravens are not eliminated. 7 more losses knock the Ravens out, whatever else happens. They are 1.5 games behind the Browns, who hold the last playoff place.

What is the Ravens magic number?

The Ravens do not have a magic number yet. Winning all 8 games they have left might be enough for the Ravens, but only if a tiebreaker goes their way. On wins alone they need help. The Ravens cannot win the AFC North on their own. Even if they win all 8 games they have left, they need another team to slip.

What are the Ravens playoff scenarios for week 10?

The Ravens play vs the Chargers on Mon, Nov 16. A win lifts their chance to 13 in 100 and a loss drops it to 4. With the other key results added, the best case this week is 14 in 100 and the worst case is 3.

Can the Ravens clinch a playoff spot this week?

No. The Ravens cannot clinch a playoff spot in week 10. Even if every game goes their way, there is still a way for them to miss.

Can the Ravens be eliminated this week?

No. The Ravens cannot be eliminated in week 10. Whatever happens, they will still have a way into the playoffs.

Who should Ravens fans root for this week?

Besides their own game, the results that help the Ravens most in week 10 are the Seahawks over the Raiders.

Who do the Ravens play next?

Next they play vs the Chargers on Mon, Nov 16. A win lifts the chance to 13 in 100. A loss drops it to 4.

Can the Ravens still win the AFC North?

The Ravens win the AFC North in 1 of 100. They are 4th in the AFC North, 2.5 games behind the Steelers.

What are the Ravens Super Bowl chances?

The Ravens reach the Super Bowl in fewer than 1 of every 100 seasons we play out and win it in fewer than 1.

How hard is the Ravens remaining schedule?

The Ravens have 8 games left. Their opponents have a combined record of 34-35, the 19th hardest schedule left of the 32 teams.

More playoff chances